1. Felix Hernandez (24) – Coming off a 19 win season in 2009 where he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting. Already an elite pitcher with his best years to come. The clear cut No. 1 pitcher on this list.

2. Tommy Hanson (23) -The top pitching prospect in all of baseball failed to disappoint last season after receiving the call to the big leagues in June. He finished with 11 wins and a 2.89 ERA in 21 games and is off to a good start this year. An ace-in-the-making who should contend for the NL Cy Young in the near future.

3. Yovani Gallardo (24) – The ace of the Brewers staff posted the second best K/9 in the NL last year at 9.89 to go along with 13 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA. Off to a 3-2, 3.00 ERA, 10.00 K/9 start in 36 IP this season. Needs to cut down on his career 3.92 BB/9 ratio to become an elite pitcher.

4. Clayton Kershaw (22) – Despite winning only 8 games last season on a first-place team, Kershaw has all the makings of a future ace. He finished in the Top 5 in ERA (2.79) , K/9 (9.74), and H/9 (6.3) last season, while leading the league in opponents AVG (.200). While his control needs to improve as his career 4.82 BB/9 suggests, he has the ability to overpower hitters and dominant on any given night.

5. Jair Jurrjens (24) – Had the 5th-lowest ERA in baseball last year (2.60) and held hitters to a .274 AVG on balls hit in play. Knows how to change speeds and mix his pitches effectively to get batters out. In line to be a top of the rotation starter for many years despite his early ineffectiveness this season, mostly due to injury.

6. David Price (24) – The No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft took the league by storm with a great showing in the Rays’ 2008 postseason run to the World Series. Price possesses overpowering stuff with a mid-90s fastball and a hard breaking slider that can lead to plenty of strikeouts. Like many young pitchers, he has had command issues but also isn’t afraid to challenge hitters. Off to a great start this season and looks to be coming into his own as a pitcher.

7. Phil Hughes (23) – After struggling with injuries his first 2 seasons, Hughes pitched mostly out of the bullpen in 2009 and finished with a 1.40 ERA along with showing good command (5:1 K/BB ratio). After winning the 5th spot in the Yankees rotation this spring, he has proven to be one of the teams best starters as he has gone 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in 4 starts, including a near no-hitter. Hughes looks to be realizing his immense potential under the bright lights of New York.

8. Rick Porcello (21) – The youngest player in the big leagues last season had a successful rookie campaign for the Tigers. The former 1st round pick went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA and finished 3rd in the AL Rookie of the Year voting last season. He has good control and a sinker that is conducive for plenty of groundball outs. While he may not be a big strikeout pitcher, his control and quality stuff will make him a tough pitcher to face every time he takes the mound.

9. Brian Matusz (23) – The 4th overall pick in 2008 impressed many in his brief stint in the majors last season with the Orioles by displaying a good command and presence on the mound. His strikeout and walk totals in his 13 career big league starts show his top-of-the-rotation potential. The future is bright for this southpaw and his outlook for 2010 and beyond is sure to catch the eye of plenty of baseball fans.

10. Brett Anderson (22) – Acquired in the trade that sent Dan Haren from Oakland to Arizona, the A’s are ecstatic from what they see in Anderson so far in his brief career. Baseball America’s No. 7 prospect entering the 2009 season posted solid numbers in his rookie season. He finished with a team-leading 11 wins and 150 strikeouts to go along with a respectable 4.06 ERA (3.48 ERA after the All-Star break). Anderson started 2010 on a good note by posting a 2.35 ERA in 4 starts before going on the DL with a forearm strain. Despite this injury, Anderson should be a good starter for many years with his command and ability to strike batters out.

11. Neftali Feliz (21) – Perhaps no one on this list possesses more overpowering stuff than Feliz. Currently serving as the Rangers closer, Feliz has shown the ability to dominant opposing hitters with his upper 90s fastball that has reached triple digits at times. He pitched out of the bullpen after his call-up to the big league club in August and finished with a 1.74 ERA in 31 IP along with 39 K and impressive 0.68 WHIP. The Rangers have bounced around the idea of moving Feliz to the rotation, but feel he is best serve as their closer right now. Whatever role he is in, Feliz is sure to make opposing hitters cringe at the sight of facing him.

12. Wade Davis (24) – Davis joined an impressive young Rays rotation at the end of 2009 and posted good numbers in 6 starts. In those starts, Davis went 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA to go along with 36 strikeouts and a 1.27 WHIP in 36.1 IP. He has picked up where he left off in ’09 to start 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 starts this season. Despite pitching in a tough AL East, Davis looks to be a good option to post a sub-4.00 ERA with good strikeout numbers this season.

13. Mat Latos (22) -Latos started his rookie campaign in 2009 by allowing no more than 2 earned runs in his first 5 starts. Despite struggling in his last 5 starts, Latos has shown good upside especially pitching in a pitcher friendly PETCO Park. The Padres thought enough of Latos to promote him straight from Double-A and bypass Triple-A altogether. Overall in his minor league career, Latos went 12-8, 2.49 ERA, with a 216:47 K/BB ratio in 185 IP, allowing only 149 hits. If he can translate those impressive numbers to the big leagues, the Padres have a future ace on their hands.

14. Johnny Cueto (24) – Cueto has been plagued my inconsistency since entering the big leagues in 2008. He has shown to be a very good pitcher in the first half of the season, as his 7-4 record with a 2.86 ERA through June in ’09 would suggest. However, Cueto has worn down in the second half and posted an 8.00 ERA in July and August of last season before a DL stint for shoulder inflammation. He possesses a live arm despite his small frame and still has too much upside to be deemed a failure at this point in his career. If Cueto can find some consistency he is arguably one of the best pitchers on this list.

15. Jaime Garcia (23) – After originally making his debut in relief during the 2008 season for the Cardinals, Garcia had to undergo Tommy John surgery in the offseason and miss most of the 2009 season. After winning the 5th spot in rotation this spring, Garcia has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals so far this season. In 4 starts, he has been dominating opposing hitters with a 1.04 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 26 IP. With a career 9.8 K/9 in the minors and the tutelage of pitching coach Dave Duncan, look for Garcia to maintain his success in the big leagues.

16. Joba Chamberlain (24) – After a great year in 2008 where he appeared in 42 games (12 starts) where he posted an impressive 2.60 ERA and 10.58 K/9, the future looked extremely promising for Joba. However, last year wasn’t as friendly as his first 2 years in the big leagues as his ERA and WHIP numbers increased as a full-time starter. This year, Joba was beat out by Phil Hughes for the 5th spot in the Yankees rotation and is back to the bullpen where his career as a starter is now in question again. Despite this role uncertainty, he is still a quality pitcher and should still provide good value in the bullpen.

17. Mike Leake (22) – The 8th pick in the 2009 draft is the first player since Xavier Nady in 2000 to go straight from the draft to the major leagues. Despite some control issues, Leake has been solid in his first 4 big league starts as he has gone 2-0 with a 3.25 ERA in 27.2 IP. While Leake is sure to run into some rookie struggles this year due to not pitching in the minor leagues, he has shown so far that his more than capable of being an effective big league pitcher.

18. Daniel Bard (24) – The man nicknamed “The Heat” consistently throws a fastball in the 98-99 range and even reached 101 MPH on the radar gun last July against the A’s. The 2006 1st round pick has all the makings of a dominant big league closer as his 11.5 K/9 and 3:1 K/BB ratio with the Red Sox last season would attest. Look for Bard to become a closer somewhere in the near future.

19. Chris Perez – Perez is another hard-throwing right hander who possesses an upper 90s fastball. Perez was acquired by the Indians last season in the trade of Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals and is currently serving as the teams’ closer for the injured Kerry Wood. He was originally selected in the 1st round by the Cardinals in 2006 and served as a closer throughout his minor league career. Look for Perez to stay the Indians closer in the coming years and produce high strikeout totals.

20. Jhoulys Chacin (22) – MLB.com’s No. 44 prospect for 2010 is a current hot topic in baseball discussion after his impressive first start of the 2010 season yesterday. In that start, Chacin only gave up one hit in 7 scoreless IP along with 7 K. While Chacin has moved from starting to the bullpen, his best value is seen in the rotation where he has the potential to be a very good starter. The Rockies are hoping for more outings like yesterday’s from Chacin.

21. Jenrry Mejia (20) – The youngest player on this list has been solid in his first 11 IP out of the Mets bullpen this season by posting a 1.64 ERA. The Mets top pitching prospect sports a fastball with good velocity and movement along with a slider that tends to sweep across the plate. The key for Mejia is find command of his pitches due to his great movement. The jury is out on how good he can be since he is so young, however, he has managed to adjust to the big leagues fairly well so far.

22. Chris Volstad (23) – After an impressive rookie campaign in 2008, Volstad followed it up with the dreaded sophomore slump last season. He finished his sophomore campaign with a 9-13 record and a 5.21 ERA in 159 IP. He also struggled with the long ball as he had an alarming 1.64 HR/9 ratio. The Marlins are hoping the former 1st rounder, who has drawn comparisons to Roy Halladay, recaptures the promise he showed in his rookie season to provide a solid 1-2 punch with Josh Johnson in the future.

23. Homer Bailey (23) – The former highly-touted pitching prospect has had his share of struggles in his big league career. Bailey hasn’t fooled too many hitters as they have hit .287 against him in his career. He has also been plagued by walks (4.43 BB/9) and home runs (1.09 HR/9) in his brief career which has been the main reason for his career 5.52 ERA. However, Bailey showed glimpses of his potential as he allowed 3 runs or less in his last 9 starts last season. The Reds are hoping Bailey can figure things out and live up to his success in the minors.

24. Ryan Perry (23) – Similar to Daniel Bard, Perry projects as a future closer, but currently serves as a middle reliever for the Tigers. While Perry struggled with his command last season, he did strike out 60 batters in 61.2 IP in his rookie season. The 2008 1st round pick should be a good closer in the future, but needs to harness his wildness before becoming a true option to close out games.

25. Franklin Morales (24) – The hard-throwing lefty made his debut with the Rockies back in 2007, where he made 8 starts. After a disappointing 2008 season between the majors and minors, Morales pitched 38 games in relief for the Rockies last season and showed some promise. He currently is filling in for injured closer Huston Street and is 3 for 5 in save chances. While Morales has had his share of struggles in the big leagues, he still possesses decent upside as a back-of-the-rotation starter or lefty specialist out of the bullpen.

Nobody in the league office has expressed concern yet over the dip in numbers. With the economy limping to restart itself, big corporations are cutting costs and it looks as though they are not spending lavishly on the big season ticket packages as they used to. Has baseball priced itself out of the average fan’s budget? According to the Team Marketing Report, the average ticket price in MLB is $26.79. I have to admit that prices have gotten to the point where I think twice before I plunk out my hard earned money to see a ball game. How will this affect these small market teams in the future? Will there be money to pay the demands of high priced free agents? There is a trend already in baseball where teams are going younger and cheaper (see Jermaine Dye). What would your plan of action be if you were the GM of one of these cash strapped teams?

On a side note, Biz of Baseball’s Maury Brown points out that two of the five record-breaking teams play in the AL East. If these numbers are a sign of apathy toward Yankees-Red Sox stranglehold, MLB could be facing this problem for awhile.

This contract is a no-brainer for the Minnesota Twins. Mauer is an amazing talent who plays at a specialty position. The only concern I would voice is Mauer’s injury history. He has had surgery on his knee back in 2004 and a back injury that kept him from playing the entire month of April last season. If the Twins manage Mauer and DH him to keep him healthy I see no reason why this won’t be a good deal for them. Assuming this does not hamper them from making other moves and retaining players in the future.

Victor Martinez must be licking his chops now as he will be looking for an extension from the Boston Red Sox soon. Mauer obviously has set the bar but Martinez knows his numbers are some what comparable.  We shall see what the happens from here.

• Brandon Wood (3B) Los Angeles Angels – The former first round pick of the Angels in 2003, is finally ready to receive regular playing time in the majors as the Angels are counting on Wood to be their everyday third basemen in 2010.  Since hitting 43 HR in the minors in 2005 and being awarded the MiLB.com’s Offensive Player of the Year Award that same season, Wood has been one of the top prospects in not only the Angels system, but in all of baseball. Despite proving he can hit in the minor leagues (39 HR per 162 Triple-A games), Wood has failed to translate those numbers in his 224 MLB at-bats over the past three seasons. However, Wood is still only 25 years old and has yet to receive regular at-bats at the big league level. Now with Chone Figgins departure to Seattle, Wood has the chance to man the hot corner for the Angels for many years. The Angels patience in Wood is similar to their patience with 1B Kendry Morales, who broke out last season after receiving his first chance at everyday playing time. Keeper league fantasy owners should especially keep an eye on Wood as he could be a steal in the late rounds with his great HR potential.

CHONE Projection: .246 AVG, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 58 Runs, .762 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .248 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 69 Runs, .764 OPS

• Brian Matusz (LHP) Baltimore Orioles – The No. 4 overall pick of the 2008 draft has gone into the 2010 season as the No. 5 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com. Matusz already made it to the big leagues in 2009 as he struggled in his first 3 starts before settling in his last 5 starts to finish with a 5-2 record along with a respectable 4.63 ERA in 44.2 IP. Matusz has drawn comparisons to former AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and fellow lefty Cole Hamels and is expected to break Orioles camp as a member of their starting rotation. Matusz sports a fastball that reaches 94 MPH and has both a slider and curveball with great movement. While the projections for this season for the 23 year old lefty aren’t too kind, Matusz has already got a taste of the big leagues and has the element of surprise as he is expected to be the future ace of the Orioles staff. If nothing else, Matusz deserves a look as a late round flier in mixed leagues.

CHONE Projection: 5-6, 4.59 ERA, 100 IP, 80 K (7.20 K/9), 1.41 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 8-12, 4.48 ERA, 151 IP, 138 K (8.23 K/9), 1.45 WHIP

• Clay Buchholz (RHP) Boston Red Sox – After making a name for himself in Boston after throwing a no-hitter in 2007, Buchholz has struggled to catch on as a consistent pitcher in the major leagues. In his minor league career, Buchholz has sported 2.42 career ERA and has top-of-the-rotation stuff. Buchholz has found his name in trade rumors the past few seasons as the Red Sox have been unable to find a spot for him in their rotation and realize the value he represents to other teams. Buchholz is expected to finally get his chance to stick in the Red Sox rotation this season and impressed last September by going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 6 starts. The time is now for Buchholz in Boston and he will be a popular sleeper candidate for fantasy owners this season. Look for him to post double-digit wins with the Red Sox defense behind him and also provide a solid ERA.

Bill James Projection: 10-8, 3.91 ERA, 161 IP, 155 K (8.66 K/9), 1.32 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 10-9, 3.96 ERA, 165 IP, 156 K (8.51 K/9), 1.29 WHIP

• Austin Jackson (OF) Detroit Tigers – The key player coming back to the Tigers in the off season trade of Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, finds himself tentatively penciled in as the starting center fielder in Detroit this season. The 23 year-old CF comes to Detroit as a highly-touted prospect and has ironically drawn comparisons to the man he was traded for in Granderson. While his power hasn’t quite developed yet, Jackson has hit for a solid AVG and has shown an ability to steal some bases as he has averaged 28 SB in 4 seasons in the minors. With the acquisition of Johnny Damon, Jackson will no longer be expected to bat leadoff in the Tigers lineup and should be much more comfortable batting lower in the lineup, most likely in the 9 hole. While fantasy owners shoudn’t expect a power boost from Jackson this season, he could be a sleeper option for runs and SB. Keeper league owners especially should keep an eye on Jackson’s progress this spring.

Bill James Projection: .294 AVG, 4 HR, 37 RBI, 40 Runs, 14 SB, .767 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .271 AVG, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 55 Runs, 15 SB, .741 OPS

• Francisco Liriano (LHP) Minnesota Twins – Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006 with a 12-3 record along with a 2.16 ERA. After the 2006 season, Liriano was considered one of the bright young pitching stars in the league and was thought to be a bona-fide ace in the American League for years to come. However, Liriano developed arm problems that eventually led to Tommy John surgery in the off season of 2006. Since then Liriano hasn’t been the same pitcher and is still looking to find the success he had in his rookie season. Last season, in particular, was especially unkind to Liriano as he battled control issues and finished with an awful 5.80 ERA. This off season, Liriano went to the Dominican Winter League and was impressive in 7 starts posting a 3-1 record to go along with 0.49 ERA and 47:5 K/BB ratio. This spring, the Twins have been encouraged with Liriano’s progress and his first spring start was a success as he tossed 2 scoreless frames and had good velocity on his pitches. Liriano is in competition for the 5th spot in Twins rotation and should win the job with a successful spring. While Liriano most likely will never be the pitcher he was in his rookie season, he still has plenty of upside and will be another year removed from Tommy John surgery. Fantasy owners could find a sleeper in Liriano this season as he has the ability to produce high strikeout totals and if healthy can produce double digit wins behind a strong Twins offense.

Bill James Projection: 8-6, 3.67 ERA, 125 IP, 128 K (9.22 K/9), 1.30 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 8-7, 3.80 ERA, 117 IP, 110 K (8.46 K/9), 1.33 WHIP

• Rajai Davis (OF) Oakland Athletics – Rajai Davis was a solid AL-only option for SB last season, but he didn’t receive enough playing time to be a quality mixed league option for fantasy owners. However, Davis received regular playing time in the second half of last season and hit .325 with 30 SB and 46 runs. Davis second half stats make him a viable sleeper in mixed leagues this year as he should find regular playing time in Oakland this season, despite playing in a crowded outfield. He should provide good run totals and has the ability to steal 50+ bases with a full season of at-bats. Davis is definately an intriguing late round pickup for fantasy owners craving for steals.

Bill James Projection: .284 AVG, 4 HR, 44 RBI, 74 Runs, 50 SB, .718 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .280 AVG, 4 HR, 52 RBI, 79 Runs, 46 SB, .708 OPS

• David Price (LHP) Tampa Bay Rays – The No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft excited fantasy owners going into 2009 as he was impressive in the Rays 2008 postseason run to the World Series. However, Price struggled last year with his command and didn’t show progress until August and September. Despite displaying inconsistency common from young pitchers, Price hasn’t shown anything to dispute the fact that he will fail to live up to his potential. Price possesses dominating stuff and is thinking big for this season as he desires to be the ace of the Rays impressive young staff. Look for Price to improve on his command and become a more consistent pitcher this season. While he might not be considered a true sleeper due to his draft status and potential, fantasy owners could get Price at a very reasonable price this year as some fantasy owners will be skeptical of Price progress this season.

Bill James Projection: 10-10, 4.30 ERA, 180 IP, 157 K (7.85 K/9), 1.36 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 11-9, 4.18 ERA, 184 IP, 153 K (7.48 K/9), 1.33 WHIP

• Julio Borbon (OF) Texas Rangers – Borbon is a popular sleeper pick in the AL this year as he, like Rajai Davis, should be a great source for runs and SB this season. After batting .310 in the minors last season, Borbon built off that success by hitting .312 in 157 AB with the big league club. However, Borbon’s greatest attribute is his speed and 19 SB during his brief tenure with the Rangers last season proves he has the ability to be a big threat on the basepaths. Borbon is penciled in as both the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the Rangers and should provide a .300 AVG, 40+ steals, and plenty of runs in a stacked Rangers lineup. Borbon probably won’t last as long as some of the names on this list as he has received plenty of attention from fantasy experts this off season excited by his potential.

Bill James Projection: .308 AVG, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 85 Runs, 42 SB, .762 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .293 AVG, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 84 Runs, 38 SB, .755 OPS

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Up Next: NL Sleepers

]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-preview-al-sleeper-candidates/feed 0 http://www.amateurgm.com/mlb-gms-ranking-for-2010 http://www.amateurgm.com/mlb-gms-ranking-for-2010#comments Fri, 05 Mar 2010 15:49:28 +0000 Andrew Swanson http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=1175 Tim Marchman of Sports Illustrated recently ranks all 30 Major League General Managers. So we must ask ourselves how do you measure a GM’s success? Is it dollars spent per win? Playoff appearances? Do you take into account the minor league system and player development? The Twins may not be a power house but they have been a very successful team.

Ultimately the goal of every team is to win the World Series. However, I am not convinced that this is a sign of a good GM. Guys like Theo Epstein of the Boston Red Sox and Brian Cashman of the New York Yankees, who get a bunch of blank checks every season seem to have an advantage over the little guys. Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics who is one of the most hyped GM’s in the game and is a poster boy for “spending money wisely” has never won a pennant in his 12 years at the helm in Oakland.  Marchman argues that Andrew Friedman of the Tampa Bay Ray’s is the best GM based on  dollars per win and his signing of Evan Longoria to a very club friendly contract. So who do you consider to be the best GM in baseball?

Tim Marchman’s GM Rankings going into the 2010 season:

1. Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Theo Epstein, Boston Red Sox
3. Brian Cashman, New York Yankees
4. Larry Beinfest, Florida Marlins
5. Jack Zduriencik, Seattle Mariners
6. Doug Melvin, Milwaukee Brewers
7. Dan O’Dowd, Colorado Rockies
8. Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers
9. Kenny Williams, Chicago White Sox
10. Billy Beane, Oakland A’s
11. Josh Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Andy MacPhail, Baltimore Orioles
13. Dave Dombrowski, Detroit Tigers
14. Walt Jocketty, Cincinnati Reds
15. Tony Reagins, Los Angeles Angels
16. Jim Hendry, Chicago Cubs
17. Frank Wren, Atlanta Braves
18. John Mozeliak, St. Louis Cardinals
19. Ruben Amaro Jr., Philadelphia Phillies
20. Neal Huntington, Pittsburgh Pirates
21. Bill Smith, Minnesota Twins
22. Mark Shapiro, Cleveland Indians
23. Mike Rizzo, Washington Nationals
24. Alex Anthopolous, Toronto Blue Jays
25. Jed Hoyer, San Diego Padres
26. Omar Minaya, New York Mets
27. Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers
28. Brian Sabean, San Francisco Giants
29. Ed Wade, Houston Astros
30. Dayton Moore, Kansas City Royals

Bryce Carlson (Brian Roberts) – In the fantasy baseball second base market, Brian Roberts is a performance enhancing choice… no pun intended.  First of all, Roberts is a workhorse.  He has averaged 157 games for the last three seasons.  You don’t need to worry about him straining his hamstring while stealing third followed later by a strained quad.  He is going to come to the ballpark every day and play.  Roberts also gives you solid offensive production in a lot of different categories which is key in fantasy baseball.  Roberts has an above average OBP which is the building block to almost every other offensive statistic.  Also, Roberts puts you in great position to own the SB category in your league which can be a tricky one.  Keep in mind that Roberts is a lead-off hitter, so he will not rack up a lot of home runs and does not have as many opportunities to drive in runs.  Still, Brian Roberts is a great option at second base.  Put him in your lineup everyday and leave him there.  He’s like the Showtime Rotisserie Oven… “Set it, and forget it!”

Jeff Walter (Brandon Phillips) – Once you get past Utley there are a number of solid options at second base. Who you should choose depends largely on need. You need someone to get on base while not contributing too many strikeouts? Pedroia is your guy. Do you have a need for speed? Roberts is your best bet. But if you’re looking for a second baseman that can help you in multiple categories and Utley is gone, your choice is between Phillips and Kinsler. When you look over the past few seasons their statistics are closer than you might expect. Both players can be counted on to hit around .275, knock 20 home runs, and swipe 20 bases. In fact each has a 30-30 season on their record (the only other second baseman with a 30-30 in the history of the sport is Alfonso Soriano). What separates the two? Kinsler will score more runs while Phillips will drive in more runs. Dusty Baker has already stated that he plans to bat Phillips clean-up (cozily between Joey Votto ahead of him and Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce behind), so expect the RBI opportunities to continue to be plentiful. Finally, if you, like me, have a hard time deciding between Phillips and Kinslers and your league has a defensive category, Phillips should be your guy. Phillips has consistently had a higher fielding percentage (and correspondingly fewer errors) than Kinsler over their careers. In fact, Phillips is good enough defensively to have won the 2008 NL Gold Glove.

Scott Oleniczak (Dustin Pedroia) – When drafting a fantasy second baseman, you want a consistent run scorer who excels in all the key offensive statistical categories, and for this reason you should draft 2008 AL MVP Dustin Pedroia.  Pedroia has averaged 106 runs and an astonishing .837 OPS over the last three seasons which ranks higher than Kinsler and Phillips.  While falling 1 run short of Roberts in his quest for a clean sweep over all three players in runs and .OPS category.   Even more impressive, Pedroia is averaging a minuscule 46 strikeouts over his last 3 seasons (Kinsler 76, Phillips 97, Roberts 105).  Pedroia is no slouch in the field averaging only 6 errors in a span of 3 seasons (Roberts 9, Phillips 8, Kinsler 15).  Pedroia falls slightly short in the HR and RBI category with a 3 years average of 13 homeruns and 68 RBI’s, however when  I’m building my fantasy team I’m getting my power surge from my corner infielders and outfielders.  In short, if you are looking for a second baseman that is well above average in all offensive categories and will help lead you to success in the all important strikeout and error categories, Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia is your guy.

Jason Oleniczak (Ian Kinsler) – Second base is the new shortstop.  Players like Kinsler, Pedroia, Phillips, Aaron Hill, and Robinson Cano are making second base what Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Miguel Tejada, made shortstop in the late 90’s early.  No longer do you just look for second basemen that provide value in categories such as R, BA, OBP, and SB, but you can look for second basemen that provide pop.  Kinsler’s three-year SLG is .482, compared to .461 for Pedroia, .458 for Phillips, and .444 for Roberts.  From 1997 to 2009 he has averaged 23 HR and 100 RBI.  During that same time frame he averaged 27 SB and an OPS of .834 which barely ranks second to Pedroia’s .837. 2010 should be an interesting year in the maturation of Kinsler as he is expected to move from leadoff to 5th in the batting order.  Will there be a spike in his power numbers and a decline in stolen bases?  Possibly, but I would expect it to be fairly marginal on both sides.  Outside of Chase Utley, Kinsler is the cream of the crop at second base.  The added bonus with Kinsler is the borderline Steve Buechele power puff hair.  Lookin good Kinsler…lookin good.

• Daisuke Matsuzaka (RHP) Boston Red Sox – Last season was a miserable season for the former Japanese ace. Matsuzaka revealed this off season that he hid a groin injury, that he sustained in the World Baseball Classic, from the Red Sox last season. To compensate for his groin injury, Matsuzaka’s mechanics were altered which led to a shoulder injury that limited him to only 12 starts last season. He would finish the season with a miserable 4-6 record, along with a 5.76 ERA and 30 BB in only 59.1 IP. However, Matsuzaka showed some promise in 4 September starts when he went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA. This off season, Matsuzaka is committed to reaffirming the Red Sox’s trust in him and hopes to become the pitcher he was in 2008 when he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 29 starts. He is an ideal bounceback candidate in the AL this season and could be a middle to late round steal in fantasy drafts.

Bill James Projection: 12-10, 4.02 ERA, 195 IP, 184 K (8.49 K/9), 1.37 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 12-8, 3.79 ERA, 191 IP, 181 K (8.53 K/9), 1.31 WHIP

• Jake Peavy (RHP) Chicago White Sox – 2009 was a whirlwind season for Peavy as he dealt with persistent trade rumors as a member of the San Diego Padres and dealt with an ankle injury that limited him to 16 starts. After initially declining a trade to the White Sox earlier in the season, Peavy eventually accepted a trade to the White Sox before the trade deadline last July. Peavy made only 3 starts with the Sox last season as he spent most of his tenure with the team rehabbing his ankle injury. In those 3 starts, Peavy showed glimpses of a return to Cy Young form as he went 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 18 K in 20 IP. Critics of Peavy feel he is a beneficiary of pitching in a pitcher’s ballpark in San Diego and that his numbers will decline pitching in a more hitter-friendly ballpark in U.S. Cellular Field, along with the more potent AL lineups. However, Peavy has some of the best stuff in the game and has Cy Young credentials to go along with a bulldog mentality. Look for Peavy to rebound in a big way and re-establish himself as the ace of the White Sox and one of the elite starters in baseball.

Bill James Projection: 16-8, 3.18 ERA, 215 IP, 217 K (9.08 K/9), 1.16 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 16-10, 3.66 ERA, 203 IP, 211 K (9.35 K/9), 1.27 WHIP

• Grady Sizemore (OF) Cleveland Indians – Sizemore went into last season as one of the top fantasy outfielders in the game as he was coming off his first 30-30 season in 2008 ( 33 HR-38 SB). However, fantasy owners were disappointed last season as Sizemore was a victim of playing through some nagging injuries that cost him 56 games and hurt his production. Last September, Sizemore had surgeries on both his elbow and lower abdomen with the hope of a healthy and productive 2010 campaign. However, Sizemore’s off season got off to a rough start as some risque’ photos of himself made their way on the Internet. Sizemore is reportedly ready for Spring Training and eager to put the incident and his disappointing 2009 season to rest this season. Sizemore is still only 27 years old and has a chip on his shoulder to prove he is a star-in-the-making. Look  for him to rebound and put together at least a 20 HR-20 SB campaign. While he won’t be taken in the first round this year, he won’t last much longer after that as he excites fantasy owners with his rare combination of power and speed.

Bill James Projection: .272 AVG, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 101 Runs, 21 SB, .853 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .271 AVG, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 98 Runs, 25 SB, .851 OPS

• Ben Sheets (RHP) Oakland Athletics – Sheets has arguably the most to prove of any player on this list. After missing the entire 2009 season to a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, Sheets is looking to prove that he can put together a healthy campaign and return to his All-Star form. After holding a throwing session for multiple MLB scouts last month, Sheets impressed enough to receive a one-year deal worth $10 million plus incentives with the A’s. Sheets now finds himself pitching in one of best pitchers’ park in all of baseball in Oakland and will be counted on to be the ace of the staff. When healthy, Sheets provides great strikeout totals and a solid ERA for fantasy owners. His numbers should be solid pitching in Oakland and he could see a spike in fantasy value as a possible mid-season pickup for a contender at the trade deadline. However, many fantasy owners are wary of Sheets injury history,as they should be, and will be skeptical to use a top pick on the pitcher. However, Sheets should be rested after missing a full season and is expected to go full steam in Spring Training. Sheets has the potential to be an excellent value in the middle rounds as a No. 3 fantasy starter.

CHONE Projection: 7-6, 4.11 ERA, 114 IP, 81 K ( 6.39 K/9), 1.30 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 10-9, 3.52 ERA, 166 IP, 121 K (6.56 K/9), 1.26 WHIP

• B.J. Upton (OF) Tampa Bay Rays – After hitting 8 postseason HR in the Rays’ 2008 run to the World Series, fantasy owners were drooling at the thought of Upton becoming the next 30-30 man in baseball. However, Upton underwent off season surgery on his shoulder which caused him to develop some bad habits at the plate and altered his mechanics. Despite helping fantasy owners with 42 SB last season, Upton disappointed fantasy owners in every other major category as he finished with a .241 AVG, 11 HR, and 55 RBI in 144 games. According to Peter Gammons of MLB.com, Upton has been working hard this off season with Rays’ hitting coach Derek Shelton on getting comfortable at the plate and staying consistent in his approach. Upton is an ideal bounceback candidate in the AL as he is still only 25 years old and should be fully healed from his shoulder issues. A return to his 20 HR form in 2007 and 40 plus SB shouldn’t be far off. Fantasy owners might finally be pleased with what they see in B.J. Upton this season.

Bill James Projection: .266 AVG, 13 HR, 59 RBI, 81 Runs, 39 SB, .768 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .268 AVG, 14 HR, 71 RBI, 88 Runs, 40 SB, .789 OPS

• Josh Hamilton (OF) Texas Rangers – After bursting on the scene in 2008 with MVP-like numbers with a .304 AVG, 32 HR, and 130 RBI, Hamilton found the injury-bug  last season as he had two stints on the DL that limited him to 336 AB. The Rangers are looking to alleviate the strain on Hamilton’s body by moving him to left field this season with the hopes he can regain his form from 2008. Hamilton also has the luxury of hitting in a hitters’ park especially friendly on left-handed hitters. He will find himself in the middle of a potent lineup with Vladimir Guerrero as his protection, which should increase the number of quality pitches he will see. Hamilton is entering the prime of his career at 28 years old and should provide good power numbers for fantasy owners. While he might not reach his totals from 2008, Hamilton should provide 20-25 HR and 90-100 RBI in the Rangers lineup. He is a perfect buy-low candidate and should have a better season for fantasy owners this season.

Bill James Projection: .293 AVG, 23 HR, 91 RBI, 75 Runs, .860 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .291 AVG, 25 HR, 92 RBI, 77 Runs, .860 OPS

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Up Next: NL Bounceback Candidates

]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-previewal-bounceback-candidates/feed 5 http://www.amateurgm.com/pitching-showdown-who-has-the-top-rotation-in-the-al-east http://www.amateurgm.com/pitching-showdown-who-has-the-top-rotation-in-the-al-east#comments Mon, 08 Feb 2010 18:06:39 +0000 Andrew Swanson http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=979 There is an old adage in baseball that “good pitching beats good hitting”. In this series I want to look at the starting rotations from each division and see how they match up with others.

The American League East has always been a case of the haves and the have nots. At the top you have the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox who seem to have an endless amount of cash at their disposal to sign whom ever the top free agents are on the market. At the bottom you have the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays who have a hard time “keeping up with the Jones”. Who has the best Pitching Staff of the 5 teams on the eastern sea board for the junior circuit? Which GM is getting the most bang for their buck?

New York Yankees: The Bronx Bombers are the perennial favorites to win the division year in and year out. They have a long history of success with their hurlers going back to Whitey Ford, Ron Guidry and the like. This season’s rotation is well rounded but it comes at a premium price of around $63.25 million.

• C.C. Sabathia: He is one of the most dominate lefties in baseball at the moment. He posted a 3.37 ERA, 197 K’s, 230.0 IP and 67 BB at price tag of $23 million.
• A.J. Burnett: Burnett has a wicked curveball and some of the most explosive stuff in baseball. However he has does have fits of wildness on the mound that leads to some high numbers. He posted 4.04 ERA, 195 K’s, 207.0 IP and 97 BB while collecting $16.5 million.
• Andy Pettitte: Pettitte has been a stalwart in the Yankees’ rotation for years now. He has always been a dependable big game pitcher. He posted 4.16 ERA, 148 K’s, 194.2 IP and 76 BB for $11.75 this coming season.
• Javier Vazquez: This is Vazquez’s second time around with the Yankees. He has great stuff but has a reputation for not being able to rise to the occasion in a pressure situation and that could lead to disaster in New York. Vazquez posted a 2.87 ERA, 238 K’s, 219.1 IP and 44 BB for $11.5 million.
• 5th Starter: There are several options for the Yankees in this spot this year. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes are most likely the top two candidates for the position.

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox have really come into their own over the past decade and have finally rid themselves of the dreaded “Curse of the Bambino”. Pitching has played a major role in this turn around with the likes of Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. The Red Sox rotation has a price tag of approximately $45.75 million for 2010 with the option to choose from 6 pitchers depending on how healthy they are.

• Jon Lester: After battling back from cancer treatments a couple of years ago Jon Lester and blossomed into a fine young pitcher. He posted a 3.41 ERA, 225 K’s, 203.1 IP and 64 BB for only $3.75 million in 2010.
• Josh Beckett: As the ace of the staff in 2009 Beckett led the charge with a 3.86 ERA, 199 K’s, 212.1 IP and 55 BB for $12 million.
• John Lackey: Lackey joins the BoSox this season after coming off injuries that have plagued him the past two seasons. He posted 3.83 ERA, 139 K’s, 176.1 IP and 47 BB for $18 millions. (A side note Lackey’s annual salary actually decreases to 15.25 million a season after 2010)
• Daisuke Matsuzaka: Dice-K has been a thorn in the Red Sox side as of late. They have not been happy with his conditioning and Matsuzaka has not been very cooperative in return. He posted a 5.76 ERA, 54 K’s, 59.1 IP and 30 BB for $8 million.
• Clay Buchholtz: At the age of 25 Buchholtz is another rising star in the Red Sox rotation. He threw for a 4.21 ERA, 68 K’s, 92.0 IP and 36 BB for near the major league minimum.
• Tim Wakefield: The crafty knuckleballer has been a constant in the ever changing rotation for the Red Sox and he expects to compete for a starting position. He hurled a 4.58 ERA, 72 K’s, 129.2 IP and $50 walks for $3.5 million.

Tampa Bay Rays: The Ray’s have come into their own the last few season’s by molding their raw young talent in to a success baseball team. While they don’t have the money the Red Sox and the Yankees’ possess they have still fielded a competitive team and even made a World Series appearance. The Rays have $7.5 million wrapped up in their starting rotation for 2010.

• James Shields: Shields is the defacto ace of the staff now that the Rays traded Scott Kazmir to the Angels. He has posted good number and has seen quite a bit of success. He numbers are as follows 4.14 ERA, 167 K’s, 219.2 IP and 52 BB for $2.5 million. 
• Matt Garza: Garza has the numbers to challenge Shields for the aces designation for the Rays. Tampa did a great job in acquiring him from the Twins a few years ago and have not been disappointed by his numbers. In 2009 he threw for a 3.95 ERA, 189 K’s, 203.0 IP and 79 BB for $3.35 million in 2010.
• Jeff Niemann: Niemann was a pleasant surprise this past season for the Rays. He really stepped up and met the challenge in his first full season in the majors. He posted a 3.94 ERA, 125 K’s, 180.2 IP and 59 BB for near the minimum. 
• David Price: Price has been talked about a lot since the Rays drafted him. He came up and was lights out in the playoff for the Rays but last season didn’t fair as well. He posted a 4.42 ERA, 102 K’s, 128.1 IP and 54 BB for near the minimum. 
• Wade Davis: Davis has the inside track for the 5th spot in the rotation. He is definitely raw but he showed quite a bit of potential last season with a 3.72 ERA, 36 K’s, 36.1 IP and 13 BB at the minimum.

Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays rotation his a huge question mark this upcoming season. They have traded their ace Roy Halladay in an effort to rebuild. They are also coming off a season in which a majority of their young staff was out with injuries. The positive is that there is some upcoming talent and they are all making nearly the minimum. The Jays will pay approx $3 million for their rotation in 2010.

• Ricky Romero: Romero has the daunting task of heading up the staff in only his second season in the big league. He posted a 4.30 ERA, 141 K’s, 178.0 IP and 79 BB near the minimum. 
• Shaun Marcum: Marcum was one of the injured players last season, missing the entire 2009 season. In 2008 he posted a 3.39 ERA, 123 K’s, 151.1 IP and 50 BB. He is signed for $850k in 2010.
• Brandon Morrow: Morrow came to the Jays in the Roy Halladay trade. He posted a 4.39 ERA, 63 K’s, 69.2 IP and 44 BB at near the minimum for Seattle last season.
• Marc Rzepczynski: Rzepczynski did an admirable job for the Jays with a 3.67 ERA, 60 K’s, 61.1 IP and 30 BB for the minimum.
• Dustin McGowan: McGowan had shown great strides in becoming an important pitcher for that Jays until he too went down with an injury and missed the 2009 season. In 2008 he had a 4.37 ERA, 85 K’s, 111.1 IP and 38 BB for $500K.

There are several others vying for a spot in the Jay’s rotation as well. Among them are Brett Cecil, Scott Richmond, David Purcey and recently acquired Dana Eveland. They are all making about the minimum.

Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles wound up in the cellar in 2009 and are hoping to pull themselves out with an improved pitching staff. They have seen a lot of talent leave the nest but they have also acquired a new ace and have some promising young talent to back him up. The Orioles are spending approximately $17 million on their 2010 rotation with the majority of that wrapped up in Kevin Millwood.

• Kevin Millwood: Millwood was acquired from the Texas Rangers to head the rotation in 2010. He posted a 3.67 ERA, 123 K’s, 198.2 IP and 71 BB while earning $12 million.
• Jeremy Guthrie: Guthrie was the ace last season and didn’t fair as well as he has in the past. He posted a 5.04 ERA, 110 K’s, 200.0 IP and 60 BB. Guthrie is arbitration eligible and will earn as much as $3.625 million.
• Brad Bergesen: Bergesen what a diamond in the rough in 2009. In his rookie season he threw for a 3.43 ERA, 65 K’s, 123.1 IP and 32 BB for the major league minimum.
• Brian Matusz: Matusz had cruised through the minors last year only to get roughed up in his first few starts. He settled down and did well at the end of the season. He posted a 4.63 ERA, 38 K’s, 44.2 IP and 14 BB at the minimum. 
• Chris Tillman: Tillman had a rough start and what really hurt him was the long ball. If he can keep the ball in the park he may see quite a few starts this season. He posted a 5.40 ERA, 39 K’s, 65.0 IP and 24 BB at the minimum.
• David Hernandez: Hernandez’s season went well up until August last year when gave up 23 homers over his last 12 starts. He posted a 5.42 ERA, 68 K’s, 101.1 IP and 46 BB for the minimum.
• Jason Berken: Berken was less then stellar in his debut last season. He posted a 6.54 ERA, 66 K’s, 119.2 IP and 44 BB for the minimum.

After running through the numbers of all the AL East teams you can see how large a distance there is on spending between the clubs. Do not feel sorry for everyone those. Teams like the Orioles have the money to spend on free agents but have either chosen not to or cannot convince top tier starters to join their club. As this point I am torn. I want to give the Rays my vote for best overall rotation (considering money as a factor) but the Red Sox keep must be given the award. Though they are out spending the majority of their division they have acquired top tier talent without completely over spending like the Yankees have. They are also doing a much better job at managing and growing their in house talent. The Joba Chamberlain debacle in the Bronx is really hurting the Yankees in my opinion.  So what do you think?

Cabrera has bounced around a lot as of late playing for the Expos, Red Sox, Angels, A’s, White Sox and Twins which makes you wonder if there isn’t a slight attitude problem with him because his numbers are good. He had a run in with the White Sox managerial staff when he allegedly called the official scorer during a game to have an error he committed changed to a hit.  That doesn’t sound like much of a team player but he will be playing for Dusty Baker who is one of the best known players managers in the game. Baker definitely know how to stroke a players ego and douse fires when the erupt in the clubhouse having dealt with Barry Bonds all those years in San Francisco.

This signing is another positive step in the right direction for the Reds. Walt Jockety is putting together a very competitive team in the Queen City and I would not be surprised to see the Reds stick with pack in the National League Central this season. Cabrera by no mean puts them over the top but he does add an upgrade to the offensive without hurting the defense up the middle.

For the Mariners, this is an excellent deal as they have locked up a 23 year old pitcher who is already considered the ace of their staff. This is also a good deal for Hernandez as he can avoid the arbitration process and be a free agent again when he is in the prime of his career at age 28, where he should find another lucrative long-term deal barring injury. In my opinion, it is encouraging to see teams realizing the importance of keeping their home-grown talent in the organization. In this era of free agency, it is common to see players jet from team to team every off season and fail to establish continuity with one club. The Florida Marlins are another team that did a great job of locking up their home-grown ace with their re-signing of Josh Johnson to a long-term deal last week.

It is no secret that the Mariners have been the most active team this off season. In my opinion, they have set themselves up to make a big run at the Los Angeles Angels and the re-signing of Hernandez might be the best and most important move of them all. Mariners fans should be encouraged by their organization’s activity this off season and should be in store for an exciting season.