Earlier today, Armando Galarraga (RHP) of the Detroit Tigers almost became the 3rd pitcher this season to throw a perfect game as he was a mere one out away from accomplishing the feat. However, Galarraga saw a very controversial finish to his pitching performance as first base umpire Jim Joyce ruled Cleveland Indians shortstop Jason Donald beat Tigers’ first basemen Miguel Cabrera’s throw to Galarraga at first base for the final out. After the play, replays clearly showed that Galarraga did in fact have his foot on the bag before Donald reached the bag and effectively was snubbed of a perfect game. After the game, Joyce was adamant that he missed the call after seeing the replay for the first time and sought out Galarraga to apologize for blowing his chance at history. After seeing an instance such as this occur, the baseball community has to wonder if they should expand the use of instant replay in the game.

In August of 2008, MLB instituted limited instant replay for the very first time to determine disputed home run balls. So far the use of instant replay has been limited to just home run balls, however, every bad call late in a close game or an instance such as Galarraga’s has sparked discussion on whether baseball should expand the use of replay beyond home run balls. Craig Calcattera of NBC Sports is a big believer in expanding instant replay and proposes a simple solution to the process:

“It is absolutely imperative that baseball implement some form of replay now. This season, before the playoffs. The best way, in my view, is to simply station a fifth umpire in the official scorer’s box. Give him the same feed the broadcast guys have. Give him a buzzer and, when an obviously bad call like this one happens, have him call down to the crew chief and overturn the call.”

This off-season baseball general managers passed on expanding instant replay for the 2010 season and were generally satisfied with the current process. Believers in the current use of instant replay feel that the game of baseball should remain pure and allow for human error from umpires as it’s a part of the game. Another obstacle in the expansion of replay is that many feel it will slow the game down even more. Over the past few years, MLB has tried to speed the game up and keep the flow of the game at a reasonable pace and having umpires converge and slow down the game to look at a replay isn’t appealing to many GM’s and MLB officials. However, the more times umpires miss calls that affect big games or even the record books, the talk of expanding instant replay in baseball will grow louder.

What will it take to expand instant replay in baseball? Should we just limit it to home run balls and trust umpires to make the right call and allow for human error? In my opinion, I am a big believer in keeping the game pure and feel that while I may not agree with every call an umpire makes, it’s a part of the game and has been for decades. Certainly calls such as today magnify the issue at hand, but honestly how much would we be talking about this blown call if this were to occur with 2 outs in the 5th inning instead of with 2 outs in the 9th? It will be interesting to see where the use of replay goes in the future as I am sure this will not be the last we hear about the issue.

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1. Felix Hernandez (24) – Coming off a 19 win season in 2009 where he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting. Already an elite pitcher with his best years to come. The clear cut No. 1 pitcher on this list.

2. Tommy Hanson (23) -The top pitching prospect in all of baseball failed to disappoint last season after receiving the call to the big leagues in June. He finished with 11 wins and a 2.89 ERA in 21 games and is off to a good start this year. An ace-in-the-making who should contend for the NL Cy Young in the near future.

3. Yovani Gallardo (24) – The ace of the Brewers staff posted the second best K/9 in the NL last year at 9.89 to go along with 13 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA. Off to a 3-2, 3.00 ERA, 10.00 K/9 start in 36 IP this season. Needs to cut down on his career 3.92 BB/9 ratio to become an elite pitcher.

4. Clayton Kershaw (22) – Despite winning only 8 games last season on a first-place team, Kershaw has all the makings of a future ace. He finished in the Top 5 in ERA (2.79) , K/9 (9.74), and H/9 (6.3) last season, while leading the league in opponents AVG (.200). While his control needs to improve as his career 4.82 BB/9 suggests, he has the ability to overpower hitters and dominant on any given night.

5. Jair Jurrjens (24) – Had the 5th-lowest ERA in baseball last year (2.60) and held hitters to a .274 AVG on balls hit in play. Knows how to change speeds and mix his pitches effectively to get batters out. In line to be a top of the rotation starter for many years despite his early ineffectiveness this season, mostly due to injury.

6. David Price (24) – The No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft took the league by storm with a great showing in the Rays’ 2008 postseason run to the World Series. Price possesses overpowering stuff with a mid-90s fastball and a hard breaking slider that can lead to plenty of strikeouts. Like many young pitchers, he has had command issues but also isn’t afraid to challenge hitters. Off to a great start this season and looks to be coming into his own as a pitcher.

7. Phil Hughes (23) – After struggling with injuries his first 2 seasons, Hughes pitched mostly out of the bullpen in 2009 and finished with a 1.40 ERA along with showing good command (5:1 K/BB ratio). After winning the 5th spot in the Yankees rotation this spring, he has proven to be one of the teams best starters as he has gone 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in 4 starts, including a near no-hitter. Hughes looks to be realizing his immense potential under the bright lights of New York.

8. Rick Porcello (21) – The youngest player in the big leagues last season had a successful rookie campaign for the Tigers. The former 1st round pick went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA and finished 3rd in the AL Rookie of the Year voting last season. He has good control and a sinker that is conducive for plenty of groundball outs. While he may not be a big strikeout pitcher, his control and quality stuff will make him a tough pitcher to face every time he takes the mound.

9. Brian Matusz (23) – The 4th overall pick in 2008 impressed many in his brief stint in the majors last season with the Orioles by displaying a good command and presence on the mound. His strikeout and walk totals in his 13 career big league starts show his top-of-the-rotation potential. The future is bright for this southpaw and his outlook for 2010 and beyond is sure to catch the eye of plenty of baseball fans.

10. Brett Anderson (22) – Acquired in the trade that sent Dan Haren from Oakland to Arizona, the A’s are ecstatic from what they see in Anderson so far in his brief career. Baseball America’s No. 7 prospect entering the 2009 season posted solid numbers in his rookie season. He finished with a team-leading 11 wins and 150 strikeouts to go along with a respectable 4.06 ERA (3.48 ERA after the All-Star break). Anderson started 2010 on a good note by posting a 2.35 ERA in 4 starts before going on the DL with a forearm strain. Despite this injury, Anderson should be a good starter for many years with his command and ability to strike batters out.

11. Neftali Feliz (21) – Perhaps no one on this list possesses more overpowering stuff than Feliz. Currently serving as the Rangers closer, Feliz has shown the ability to dominant opposing hitters with his upper 90s fastball that has reached triple digits at times. He pitched out of the bullpen after his call-up to the big league club in August and finished with a 1.74 ERA in 31 IP along with 39 K and impressive 0.68 WHIP. The Rangers have bounced around the idea of moving Feliz to the rotation, but feel he is best serve as their closer right now. Whatever role he is in, Feliz is sure to make opposing hitters cringe at the sight of facing him.

12. Wade Davis (24) – Davis joined an impressive young Rays rotation at the end of 2009 and posted good numbers in 6 starts. In those starts, Davis went 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA to go along with 36 strikeouts and a 1.27 WHIP in 36.1 IP. He has picked up where he left off in ’09 to start 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 starts this season. Despite pitching in a tough AL East, Davis looks to be a good option to post a sub-4.00 ERA with good strikeout numbers this season.

13. Mat Latos (22) -Latos started his rookie campaign in 2009 by allowing no more than 2 earned runs in his first 5 starts. Despite struggling in his last 5 starts, Latos has shown good upside especially pitching in a pitcher friendly PETCO Park. The Padres thought enough of Latos to promote him straight from Double-A and bypass Triple-A altogether. Overall in his minor league career, Latos went 12-8, 2.49 ERA, with a 216:47 K/BB ratio in 185 IP, allowing only 149 hits. If he can translate those impressive numbers to the big leagues, the Padres have a future ace on their hands.

14. Johnny Cueto (24) – Cueto has been plagued my inconsistency since entering the big leagues in 2008. He has shown to be a very good pitcher in the first half of the season, as his 7-4 record with a 2.86 ERA through June in ’09 would suggest. However, Cueto has worn down in the second half and posted an 8.00 ERA in July and August of last season before a DL stint for shoulder inflammation. He possesses a live arm despite his small frame and still has too much upside to be deemed a failure at this point in his career. If Cueto can find some consistency he is arguably one of the best pitchers on this list.

15. Jaime Garcia (23) – After originally making his debut in relief during the 2008 season for the Cardinals, Garcia had to undergo Tommy John surgery in the offseason and miss most of the 2009 season. After winning the 5th spot in rotation this spring, Garcia has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals so far this season. In 4 starts, he has been dominating opposing hitters with a 1.04 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 26 IP. With a career 9.8 K/9 in the minors and the tutelage of pitching coach Dave Duncan, look for Garcia to maintain his success in the big leagues.

16. Joba Chamberlain (24) – After a great year in 2008 where he appeared in 42 games (12 starts) where he posted an impressive 2.60 ERA and 10.58 K/9, the future looked extremely promising for Joba. However, last year wasn’t as friendly as his first 2 years in the big leagues as his ERA and WHIP numbers increased as a full-time starter. This year, Joba was beat out by Phil Hughes for the 5th spot in the Yankees rotation and is back to the bullpen where his career as a starter is now in question again. Despite this role uncertainty, he is still a quality pitcher and should still provide good value in the bullpen.

17. Mike Leake (22) – The 8th pick in the 2009 draft is the first player since Xavier Nady in 2000 to go straight from the draft to the major leagues. Despite some control issues, Leake has been solid in his first 4 big league starts as he has gone 2-0 with a 3.25 ERA in 27.2 IP. While Leake is sure to run into some rookie struggles this year due to not pitching in the minor leagues, he has shown so far that his more than capable of being an effective big league pitcher.

18. Daniel Bard (24) – The man nicknamed “The Heat” consistently throws a fastball in the 98-99 range and even reached 101 MPH on the radar gun last July against the A’s. The 2006 1st round pick has all the makings of a dominant big league closer as his 11.5 K/9 and 3:1 K/BB ratio with the Red Sox last season would attest. Look for Bard to become a closer somewhere in the near future.

19. Chris Perez – Perez is another hard-throwing right hander who possesses an upper 90s fastball. Perez was acquired by the Indians last season in the trade of Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals and is currently serving as the teams’ closer for the injured Kerry Wood. He was originally selected in the 1st round by the Cardinals in 2006 and served as a closer throughout his minor league career. Look for Perez to stay the Indians closer in the coming years and produce high strikeout totals.

20. Jhoulys Chacin (22) – MLB.com’s No. 44 prospect for 2010 is a current hot topic in baseball discussion after his impressive first start of the 2010 season yesterday. In that start, Chacin only gave up one hit in 7 scoreless IP along with 7 K. While Chacin has moved from starting to the bullpen, his best value is seen in the rotation where he has the potential to be a very good starter. The Rockies are hoping for more outings like yesterday’s from Chacin.

21. Jenrry Mejia (20) – The youngest player on this list has been solid in his first 11 IP out of the Mets bullpen this season by posting a 1.64 ERA. The Mets top pitching prospect sports a fastball with good velocity and movement along with a slider that tends to sweep across the plate. The key for Mejia is find command of his pitches due to his great movement. The jury is out on how good he can be since he is so young, however, he has managed to adjust to the big leagues fairly well so far.

22. Chris Volstad (23) – After an impressive rookie campaign in 2008, Volstad followed it up with the dreaded sophomore slump last season. He finished his sophomore campaign with a 9-13 record and a 5.21 ERA in 159 IP. He also struggled with the long ball as he had an alarming 1.64 HR/9 ratio. The Marlins are hoping the former 1st rounder, who has drawn comparisons to Roy Halladay, recaptures the promise he showed in his rookie season to provide a solid 1-2 punch with Josh Johnson in the future.

23. Homer Bailey (23) – The former highly-touted pitching prospect has had his share of struggles in his big league career. Bailey hasn’t fooled too many hitters as they have hit .287 against him in his career. He has also been plagued by walks (4.43 BB/9) and home runs (1.09 HR/9) in his brief career which has been the main reason for his career 5.52 ERA. However, Bailey showed glimpses of his potential as he allowed 3 runs or less in his last 9 starts last season. The Reds are hoping Bailey can figure things out and live up to his success in the minors.

24. Ryan Perry (23) – Similar to Daniel Bard, Perry projects as a future closer, but currently serves as a middle reliever for the Tigers. While Perry struggled with his command last season, he did strike out 60 batters in 61.2 IP in his rookie season. The 2008 1st round pick should be a good closer in the future, but needs to harness his wildness before becoming a true option to close out games.

25. Franklin Morales (24) – The hard-throwing lefty made his debut with the Rockies back in 2007, where he made 8 starts. After a disappointing 2008 season between the majors and minors, Morales pitched 38 games in relief for the Rockies last season and showed some promise. He currently is filling in for injured closer Huston Street and is 3 for 5 in save chances. While Morales has had his share of struggles in the big leagues, he still possesses decent upside as a back-of-the-rotation starter or lefty specialist out of the bullpen.

Nobody in the league office has expressed concern yet over the dip in numbers. With the economy limping to restart itself, big corporations are cutting costs and it looks as though they are not spending lavishly on the big season ticket packages as they used to. Has baseball priced itself out of the average fan’s budget? According to the Team Marketing Report, the average ticket price in MLB is $26.79. I have to admit that prices have gotten to the point where I think twice before I plunk out my hard earned money to see a ball game. How will this affect these small market teams in the future? Will there be money to pay the demands of high priced free agents? There is a trend already in baseball where teams are going younger and cheaper (see Jermaine Dye). What would your plan of action be if you were the GM of one of these cash strapped teams?

On a side note, Biz of Baseball’s Maury Brown points out that two of the five record-breaking teams play in the AL East. If these numbers are a sign of apathy toward Yankees-Red Sox stranglehold, MLB could be facing this problem for awhile.

1. Evan Longoria (24) – 60 HR and 198 RBI in first 2 seasons. Off to a great start in 2010 and should add an MVP to his collection soon.

2. Justin Upton (22) – 20 HR-20 SB guy last year. Arguably the best athlete in baseball who should reach 30 HR-30 SB in the near future.

3. Pablo Sandoval (23) – .300 hitter with 25-30 HR and 90-100 RBI ability. “Kung Fu Panda” is already a fan favorite and feared hitter.

4. Jason Heyward (20) – 2010 No. 1 prospect has gotten off to a .302, 3 HR, 15 RBI start in 43 big league at-bats at the age of 20. Looks to be the leader of the newest crop of talent from the minor leagues.

5. Matt Wieters (23) – The most-hyped prospect of 2009 has uncanny power and hitting ability from both sides of the plate. Look for Wieters to make huge strides this season and become one of the premier catchers in the near future.

6. Billy Butler (24) – .301 AVG, 21 HR, and 93 RBI in first full season. Set to become a premier slugger with 30 HR-100 RBI not out of the question.

7. Carlos Gonzalez (24) – 5-tool talent that started to showcase those tools last season. Should be a mainstay in the Rockies outfield and top of the order for years to come.

8. Adam Jones (24) – One of the best athletes on this list. Great arm and 20 HR-20 SB talent.

9. Andrew McCutchen (23) – Another 5-tool talent from the leadoff spot. Outstanding speed and developing power. Set to become premier leadoff hitter in the majors.

10. Gordon Beckham (23) – Future All-Star 2B. Made the leap from Double-A to the majors last season and displayed a good hitting prowess. The future of the White Sox.

11. Jay Bruce (23) – Has struggled to hit consistently at the big league level. The former No. 1 overall prospect has arguably the most upside of any hitter on this list and has the potential to become a big run-producer.

12. Delmon Young (24) – Like Bruce, has failed to hit consistently enough to live up to his enormous potential. Still a great talent with good upside who has hit a solid .289 for his career. Entering a make or break year in the big leagues.

13. Chris Coghlan (24) – 2009 NL Rookie of the Year is a scrappy top of the order hitter. Shows good plate discipline and should hit for a high average in his career.

14. Colby Rasmus (23) – Has above-average power and speed from the left side who hit 16 HR for the Cardinals in his rookie campaign last season. Solid defender who should be a premier center fielder within the next few years.

15. Elvis Andrus (21) – Biggest assets are his speed and defense. A future Gold Glover who projects as a leadoff hitter and threat on the basepaths.

16. Cameron Maybin (23) – One of the most talented players on this list. Currently hitting near the top of the Marlins lineup with his great speed, but has the ability to become a middle of the order hitter as he continues to grow into his frame. Looking to put it together in his first full season this year.

17. Dexter Fowler (24) – Had an up and down season at the plate last season with the Rockies as he needs to hit for a higher average. An elite defender and base-stealer (27 SB in ’09) who should be a top of the order threat with Gonzalez in the Rockies outfield.

18. Kyle Blanks (23) – After hitting 10 HR in only 148 AB last season for the Padres, the 6-6/285 lb big man projects as a huge power threat in the near future. Despite his large frame, reminiscent of the “Big Hurt” Frank Thomas, he is athletic enough to play in the outfield, though his natural position is at first base.

19. Austin Jackson (23) – The newest Tiger has gotten off to a solid start (.333 AVG, 5 RBI, 2 SB from the leadoff spot) in his first big league season. Jackson ironically projects similarly to the man he was traded for in Curtis Granderson. Look for him to rise up this list next season.

20. Alcides Escobar (23) – In his first season as the Brewers everyday shortstop. A potential game-changer with both his glove and speed.  Hit .304 in 125 AB with the Brewers last year.

21. Ike Davis (23) – The Mets top prospect made his major league debut last night against the Cubs and didn’t disappoint by going 2 for 4 with an RBI. The 18th overall selection in the 2008 draft hit 20 HR in the minors last year along with a .298 AVG. He projects as a middle of the order threat from the left side of the plate.

22. Ian Desmond (24) – The former 3rd round pick of the Nationals in 2004 is finally starting to put it together. Desmond is a late-bloomer who is starting to hit for contact consistently. He earned the starting nod at short over Cristian Guzman and looks to be the Nationals shortstop of the future.

23. Tyler Colvin (24) – After hitting .468 with 2 HR and 18 RBI in 25 Spring Training games this year, Colvin earned a spot on the Cubs 25 man roster. Currently a part of a 5 man outfield rotation in Chicago, Colvin doesn’t project to provide off the chart numbers this year. However, the former first round pick can swing the bat and also provides above average speed. Look for his name in the coming years.

24. Everth Cabrera (23) – A Rule 5 pick of the Padres last season, Cabrera took the shortstop position as his own by displaying great work with the glove and providing 25 SB in 103 games. Cabrera must hit for a higher average to become an even bigger threat on the basepaths.

25. Asdrubal Cabrera (24) – Has proven to be a solid major league infielder as his bat as caught up to his great defense. In 2009, he hit .308 and provided 68 RBI and 17 SB for the Indians. While he might not reach star status, he should have a long and productive big league career.

Honorable Mention: Julio Borbon (24), Sean Rodriguez (24), Chris Davis (24), Reid Brignac (24)

Alex Childers (Carl Crawford) – Four years $66 million; Seven years $120 million.  No, that’s not the Saudi Prince’s inheritance; those are the respective pay days that Jason Bay and Matt Holliday earned this year. Carl Crawford has the potential to earn an equivalent payday if he can perform like he has in the past.  With the Yankees showing interest, Crawford is prepared for a career year and a huge pay day. Last season Crawford produced his typical stat line .305/.364/.452 (BA/OBP/SLG) 60 SB, 15 HR, 68 RBI and 96 R. At the age of 28, Crawford is in his prime and has exhibited great consistency as a legitimate five-tool player over his eight seasons at the Major League level. His 362 career SB rank him 4^th on the active list and he is the youngest player in the top 10.

Sure Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun are flashy picks, but neither one has a proven track record. Braun broke into the league in 2007 and Kemp in 2006, mere babies. The CHONE Projection has Ryan Braun hitting .309/.372/.568 with 99 RBI, 33 HR, and 16 SB. CHONE projects Matt Kemp as .305/.364/.501 with 82 RBI, 20 HR, and 27 SB. Not much more impressive than Crawford, and what Crawford lacks in power he more than makes up for in speed. A potentially even bigger upside to taking Crawford is his average draft position. Both Braun and Kemp, on average, went in the top 8 of yahoo fantasy drafts, Crawford on the other hand wasn’t snatched up until the 22^nd pick. If you can select power with your first overall selection, chances are Crawford’s consistency and speed will still be waiting for you well after the overvalued Kemp and Braun are gone.

Braun and Kemp are infants; Grady and Holliday are injuries waiting to happen.  Take the guy that has the most to play for, the guy that has been consistent, and the guy that is a legitimate five-tool player. If you are lucky, you may even be able to steal him in the second round. Stealing, now that’s something Crawford is familiar with.

Bryce Carlson (Matt Holliday) – Whoever said that Matt Holliday’s offensive numbers were a product of the thin mountain air at Coors Field might have been right… if they only looked at the first two thirds of last season while he played for the Oakland Athletics. I’m not sure what the elevation difference is between Oakland and St. Louis, but Holliday proved that he is still a great offensive player last year in his 63 games as a Cardinal. Ok, so the elevation difference in 532 ft, but that is nothing when compared to the Mile High City of Denver.

Even with a poor start in Oakland last year, Holliday still finished the season with a .313 BA and 109 RBI. Don’t expect to see a major jump in his power numbers from last year (24 HR, .515 SLG) as these statistics have been declining since 2007. What can you expect from Holliday in 2010? He won’t hit 35 HR, but he will still have an average around .315, 100+ runs, 100+ RBI, and an OBP approaching .400. He might even steal a few bases for you… go figure.  Don’t be afraid to draft Holliday as a major player on your 2010 fantasy team. He is a top 5 outfielder who will put up a ton of offensive numbers. However, if your league carries a sliding into home statistic, you may need to rethink that…

Jon Heintzelman (Matt Kemp) – If Braun is the first OF off the board in your draft don’t sweat it. You’ll be in position to scoop up five-category roto-stud Matt Kemp as the next best OF option. Kemp has everything going for him to be worthy of a mid-first round pick in mixed league drafts. As I said in an earlier post, you want to invest early round picks in power/speed players with stable skills and high reliability. Kemp not only fits this profile, but he is also still growing into his power profile while entering his prime years (he’s only 26). His HR/fly ball rate has grown from 10% to 12% to 15% in the last three years while he’s maintained an elite >20% line drive rate. With Kemp you can take 30-100-30-100-.300 to the bank with a chance for more power growth to boot (35-120 possible). If you line up Kemp’s profile against the next best options at OF no one stacks up. Holliday can match Kemp’s power profile with half the SB, but don’t fall in love with his .350+ BA in St. Louis last season post trade, it was inflated by an obscenely high .391 BABIP. I know Crawford swiped 60 last season, but look at the second half drop off (40/20), and you’re giving up 30-50% in HR/RBI on top of it, no thanks. As for Grady, I love him, but given his injury history the past couple of years how can you rely on him with other high quality options out there. Investing in Kemp will provide happy fantasy returns, and you can take that to the bank!

Ryan Oleniczak (Grady Sizemore)

Dear Grady,

I have to convince the readers of amateurgm.com that you are still an elite fantasy outfielder and that last seasons injuries are in the past. I want to prove to them that you are better than Matt Kemp, Matt Holliday, and Carl Crawford. My hope is that you don’t cause pain again to the fantasy owners who took you in the first round of many drafts last season. You and I both know when you’re at the top of your game, you are arguably the best fantasy outfielder as you provide the coveted power-speed combo from the leadoff spot that all fantasy owners drool over. If you could add another Gold Glove to your collection that would be great, too. I mean Grady, I am sure you are a smart guy and know your production when you’re healthy, but let me refresh your memory. From 2005-2008 your season averages were quite impressive: 159 GP, .281 AVG, 26 HR, 81 RBI, 116 R, and 28 SB. If you could return to your 2008 numbers where you posted career highs in HR (33), RBI (90), and SB (38), you will make the fantasy owners who take you instead of Kemp and Holliday very happy as your overall production is quite comparable to those guys who are likely to be taken before you. If only you could convince your new manager Manny Acta to take you out of the leadoff spot, you might finally reach 100 RBI in a season. Don’t fret those injuries Grady, I am sure your doctors took care of you and you should be able to return to your habit of wreaking havoc on the basepaths and scoring runs. Consider me one of your biggest fans and believer that you can return to form this season. I know you have a chip on your shoulder and believe you can bounceback this season. So what do you say Grady? Let’s leave the other fantasy options in your rearview mirror and repay those of us that took you in the first round last year. Just one more thing Grady, do you think you could stop putting risque pictures of yourself on the internet?

Sincerely,

Ryan Oleniczak

Minnesota Twins: The Twinkees are always competitive. They have a very regimented process to move their minor leaguers up to the majors, requiring them to complete specific tasks and to do them consistently. Their owner, James Pohlad, is actually the second richest owner in the majors with a net worth of $3.6 billion. It will also be interesting to see how the staff deals with having to pitch outside in early spring and late fall now that they don’t have the comforts of the Metrodome. This new stadium could save them a lot of hits that use to skip through the infield on the AstroTurf.  The Twins rotation has a potential price tag of $12.6 dollars for 2010.

• Scott Baker: Baker doesn’t have overpowering stuff but is extremely accurate. At the beginning of the ’09 season he struggled but he turned things around to compile his best overall season yet. He is 28 years old and entering the prime of his career. He threw for a 4.37 ERA, 162 K’s, 200 IP and 48 walks. He will earn $3 million in 2010.
• Kevin Slowey: Slowey is another solid middle of the rotation guy that the Twins seem to put out on the field every year. He lost some time due to wrist surgery last season but is expected to be fully healthy to start the year. He posted a 4.86 ERA, 75 K’s, 90.2 IP and 15 walks last year. He will earn near near the minimum in 2010.
• Carl Pavano: Pavano has solid stuff and he made a killing at the Yankees expense in 2005. He then proceeded to rarely pitch the next three seasons while raking in the dough. His numbers have never been stellar but there is a ton of potential there. He threw for a 5.10 ERA, 147 K’s, 199.1 IP and 39 BB. He will make $7 million this season.
• Nick Blackburn: Blackburn is a solid back of the rotation starter. He will eat innings for you and will keep you in the game. He isn’t flashy and will never have good strikeout numbers. He pitched for a 4.03 ERA, 98 K’s, 205.2 IP and 41 walks. He will earn near the minimum.
• Brian Duensing: Duensing will be in competition for the 5th starter position this season in spring training. He posted good numbers over the 9 games he started last year. He threw for a 3.64 ERA, 53 K’s, 84 IP and 31 walks. He will earn the minimum this season.
• Francisco Liriano: Liriano has been a source of many headaches in the Twin Cities over the past few seasons. He burst on to the scene in 2006 with Cy Young numbers only to have injury issues and then control problems in subsequent seasons. He needs to prove to Ron Gardenhire that he can consistently throw strikes to earn the fifth starter position this year. He will make $1.6 million in 2010.

Detroit Tigers: I personally believe the Tigers are in a transition phase this season. They seem to be spending money this year to compete but a lot of other money and dead weight will be coming off the books this fall. The Tigers do have a lot of young talent going for them which is a definite plus. Injuries as always will be a key factor with Tigers and staying competitive in 2010. The Tigers have a potential rotation cost of anywhere between $20.75 million to $41.75 million depending on who earns spots at the back end of the rotation. I think they will end up being closer to the $20 million mark then $40 million.

• Justin Verlander: The Tigers just resigned Verlander to a 5-year $80 million deal. He is one of the best and brightest pitchers around. He will be the anchor of the Tigers staff for years to come. He threw for a 3.45 ERA, 269 K’s, 240 IP and 63 BB. He will earn $6.75 million in 2010.
• Rick Porcello: Porcello turn in a great year last season and made a very strong push for rookie of the year. He didn’t display much strike out potential but he has plenty of room to grow in the future. At the young age of 21 the Tigers need to make sure they don’t over work this promising arm. He threw for a 3.96 ERA, 89 K’s, 170.2 IP and 52 BB. He will earn near the minimum.
• Max Scherzer: Scherzer is another very talented young arm in the Tigers’ rotation. He came over in a trade this offseason so we will have to see how he adjusts to the American League. His pitching motion can make you nervous at the potential for injury but if he stays healthy he has the potential to be a star in the future. He threw for a 4.12 ERA, 174 K’s, 170.1 IP and 63 BB. He will earn near the minimum.
• Jeremy Bonderman: Bonderman has provided the Tigers’ faithful with a lot of disappointment. He has good stuff but it has never seemed to translate into really good major league success. He has battled a lot of injuries over this career and has yet to post an ERA under 4.08. He will need to prove himself worthy this year as his contract is expiring at the end of the season. He missed a majority of the 2009 season and threw for a 8.71 ERA, 5 K’s, 10.1 IP and 8 walks. He will make $12.5 million in 2010.
• Armando Galarraga: After a strong rookie season Galarraga had himself a sophomore slump last season. He deserves the benefit of the doubt and will most likely contend for a rotation spot after losing his spot at the end of the 2009 season. He threw for a 5.64 ERA, 95 K’s, 143.2 IP and 67 walks. He will earn near the minimum.
• Nate Robertson: Robertson is another contract that the Tigers will be glad to take off the books at the end of the season. He showed potential and was a great innings eater but has since been competing for the 5th spot in the rotation for the past 2 years. He posted a 5.44 ERA, 35 K’s, 49.2 IP, 28 walks and only started 6 games. He makes $10 million in 2010.
• Dontrelle Willis: Uh… yeah well most of you know the disaster Willis has been for the Tigers. He can not seem to throw a strike to save his life. I doubt he will earn the 5th starter spot but he will be in consideration during spring training. In 7 starts he threw for a 7.49 ERA, 17 K’s, 33.2 IP and 28 BB. He will make $12 million in 2010.

Chicago White Sox: The White Sox made an effort to change organizational direction this season. They shifted from an offensive-based team to a more well rounded defense and speed-based team. While the majority of their starters are the same, the key addition of Jake Peavy has set the White Sox up with a bonafide ace which they seemed to be lacking. Kenny Williams has had great success in building their rotation threw trading away prospects and gaining quality players in return. On paper they seem to be the best and most well rounded rotation in the division. However are they being thrifty enough to win the best rotation in the AL Central? They are currently shelling out $37.2 million for their hurlers in 2010.

• Mark Buehrle: There are not many sure things when it comes to baseball but Buehrle is a close as it gets. He is a finesse pitcher through and through. He has thrown over 200 innings in each of his 9 seasons as a full time starter. Last season he threw for a 3.84 ERA, 105 K’s, 213.1 IP and 45 BB. He will earn $14 million in 2010.
• Jake Peavy: Peavy is top tier starter no matter what league he is pitching in. He has electric stuff and would be the ace on anyone’s staff. He does have an injury history but nothing too serious so far. Last season he threw for a 3.45 ERA, 110 K’s, 101.2 and 34 walks. He earns $15 million in 2010.
• Gavin Floyd: After struggling with control problems for a long time Floyd righted the ship in the 2008 season with the White Sox and seem to continue this trend last season. He isn’t the ace people originally thought he would be when first drafted but he is a strong starter and is a great option to have in the middle to back of your rotation. He threw for a 4.06 ERA, 163 K’s, 193 IP and 59 BB. He earns $2.75 million.
• John Danks: Danks is a solid middle of the rotation option. While he isn’t a flame thrower he gets his fair share of strike outs. He is young and looks to improve on his numbers from last season. He pitched for a 3.77 ERA, 149 K’s, 200.1 IP, 73 walks. He will earn $3.45 million in 2010.
• Freddy Garcia: Garcia is a big question mark. He performed well at the end of last season but has suffered from a shoulder injury for the past two years. He will be competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. He threw for a 4.34 ERA, 37 K’s, 56 IP and 12 walks. He will make up to $2 million next season if he hits all his performance bonuses.
• Daniel Hudson: Hudson rocketed up through the White Sox minor league system last season pitching at every single level within the organization. He also had success at every single level. He will give Freddy Garcia some stiff competition in spring training for the 5th starter spot. Hudson threw for a 3.38 ERA, 14 K’s, 18.2 IP and 9 walks. He will make the minimum.

Kansas City Royals: The Royals have been in the cellar of the AL Central for quite a while. However, there is a bright future ahead of them if all their stars play to their potential and if they can hold on to them for a decent amount of time before their contracts become too expensive for them to sustain. The rotation is very promising and is finally able to keep the Royals semi competitive with their more talented competitors. The two biggest questions they have are how effective will the back end of their rotation be and can Gil Meche return to form? They are spending $25.11 million for their starters in 2010.

• Zack Greinke: Greinke is arguably the best pitcher in the AL Central. He won the AL Cy Young award last season by posting a 2.16 ERA, 242 K’s, 229.1 IP and 51 walks. He will be the force to contend with in KC for years to come and the Royals fans are excited. He will earn $7.25 million in 2010.
• Gil Meche: Meche was a surprise signing a few years ago by the Royals coming over from the Mariners and he has anchored their rotation well. Last season his numbers slipped but he is still the solid number 2 in their rotation. He threw for a 5.09 ERA 95 K’s, 129 IP and 58 walks. He will earn $12 million in 2010.
• Luke Hochevar: Hochevar is the definition of diamond in the rough. He has great potential as the top pick in the 2008 draft and looks to improve upon his performance last season. It was feast or famine last season for Hochevar, who permitted at least six earned runs in nine starts and also held the opposition to two earned runs or fewer in eight outings. He threw for a 6.55 ERA, 106 K’s, 143 IP and 46 walks. He makes $1.76 million in 2010.
• Kyle Davies: Davies saved his best for last in 2009, going 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA over his final four starts of the campaign. The problem is he also enjoyed a strong finish to ’08 by going 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA after the start of September, and he hasn’t been able to capture that form in the other five months of the season. He threw for a 5.27 ERA, 86 K’s, 123 IP and 66 BB. He earns $1.8 million.
• Brian Bannister: Bannister is a decent option at the end of the Royals rotation. He doesn’t have great stuff but what he does have he makes good use of. He kept the Royals in games when he pitched and has a tendency to get on a roll. He posted a 4.73 ERA, 98 K’s, 154 IP and 50 walks. He earns $2.3 million in 2010.
• Robinson Tejeda: Tejeda worked the majority of last season out of the bullpen but was given the chance to start in September and never looked back going 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 9.09 K/9 ratio in six outings. He will probably be given a long look in spring training but we are not sure how the Royals plan on utilizing him. He threw for 3.54 ERA, 87 K’s, 73.2 IP and 50 BB. He earns $950 thousand in 2010.

Cleveland Indians: The Indians look to be in a rough spot coming into the 2010 season. There doesn’t seem to be any super strong pitchers in their rotation and there are a ton of question marks toward the back end. They traded away several of their aces in Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia over last few seasons and they will be looking to see if anyone can step up into that open role. Manny Acta will have his work cut out for him this spring training as he tries to piece together a lot of raw young pitchers into a working, viable rotation. They are paying $17.4 million for their starting pitchers in 2010.

• Jake Westbrook: Westbrook last pitched for the Indians in June of 2008 before having Tommy John surgery. He will be the defacto ace of the staff in 2009. In his last full season (2007) he posted a 4.32 ERA, 93 K’s, 152 IP and 55 walks. He will make $11 million in 2010.
• Fausto Carmona: Carmona is displayed his potential in 2007 winning 19 games but he imploded and has not been able to find that success again so far. He has struggled mightily with his control. He is young and still has time to right the ship but he can’t be counted on to be a steady contributor. He threw for a 6.32 ERA, 79 K’s, 125.1 IP and 70 walks. He will make $4.9 million.
• Justin Masterson: Masterson has spent the majority of his career in the bullpen. He is predominately a two pitch pitcher which could limit his effectiveness in the future but he has good velocity and good bite on his slider. He will look to solidify a position in the rotation this year. He threw for a 4.52 era, 119 K’s, 129.1 IP and 60 walks. He will earn near the minimum.
• David Huff: Huff struggled last season but left a positive impression at the end going 4-1 over his last 5 starts. He will look to improve on his rookie performance and has had a good track record at every level he has played. Huff threw for a 5.61 ERA, 65 K’s, 128.1 IP and 41 BB. He earns the minimum.
• Aaron Laffey: Laffey is a finesse pitcher who tops out around 87 mph on his fastball. He has proven that he can get guys out but needs to be very consistent. He is young like most of his fellow starters and looks to carve a niche for himself. He threw for 4.44 ERA, 59 K’s, 121.2 IP and 57 walks. He will earn the minimum.
• Jeremy Sowers: Sowers is also a soft tosser who doesn’t seem to be able to get outs as consistently as his teammate Laffey. He threw for 5.25 ERA, 51 K’s, 123.1 IP and 52 walks. He earns near the minimum.
• Carlos Carrasco: Carrasco was the key player in the Cliff Lee deal from the Phillies. He is armed with a lively mid-90s fastball, a changeup and a curve, the key for him has been consistency, and he’s generally taken a little time to adapt to each level. He threw for a 8.87 ERA, 11 K’s, 22.1 IP and 11 BB. He will earn the minimum.

There is a wide range of talent being offered in the starting rotations for the AL Central. The Chicago White Sox have the best overall talent on their roster and seem to have the most solidified rotation coming into spring training. However, they have the highest price tag associated with their talent. That is why I have to give my vote to the Twins. They may not have the best talent on their team, but for what they are paying them, they have the most potential and the best cost efficiency.

Shapiro has had the role of general manager for the Indians going on nine seasons. He started with the Indians back in 1992 and has worked his way up to the top. Shapiro earn the “Executive of the Year” award in 2005 and 2007. Bud Selig also named him to the recently established “On-Field Matters” committee.

Antonetti first job in major league baseball was with the Montreal Expos. As assistant to Shapiro, Antonetti has worked very closely with the contract negotiations and he also oversees the farm system, professional scouting department, and statistical analysis systems.

The Indians are coming off a horrendous season in which they lost 97 games and tied the Kansas City Royals for last place in the AL Central division. Shapiro’s hand-picked manager Eric Wedge lost his job due to the poor performance of this team. However, there are some bright spots for the club. Grady Sizemore is a potential Comeback Player of the Year for the Indians after missing a large portion of the season due to injury. Shin-Soo Choo established himself as a very well-rounded outfielder hitting .300 with 20 home runs, 86 RBI, and 21 stolen bases.

Antonetti will definitely have his work cut out for him next off season.

• Daisuke Matsuzaka (RHP) Boston Red Sox – Last season was a miserable season for the former Japanese ace. Matsuzaka revealed this off season that he hid a groin injury, that he sustained in the World Baseball Classic, from the Red Sox last season. To compensate for his groin injury, Matsuzaka’s mechanics were altered which led to a shoulder injury that limited him to only 12 starts last season. He would finish the season with a miserable 4-6 record, along with a 5.76 ERA and 30 BB in only 59.1 IP. However, Matsuzaka showed some promise in 4 September starts when he went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA. This off season, Matsuzaka is committed to reaffirming the Red Sox’s trust in him and hopes to become the pitcher he was in 2008 when he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 29 starts. He is an ideal bounceback candidate in the AL this season and could be a middle to late round steal in fantasy drafts.

Bill James Projection: 12-10, 4.02 ERA, 195 IP, 184 K (8.49 K/9), 1.37 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 12-8, 3.79 ERA, 191 IP, 181 K (8.53 K/9), 1.31 WHIP

• Jake Peavy (RHP) Chicago White Sox – 2009 was a whirlwind season for Peavy as he dealt with persistent trade rumors as a member of the San Diego Padres and dealt with an ankle injury that limited him to 16 starts. After initially declining a trade to the White Sox earlier in the season, Peavy eventually accepted a trade to the White Sox before the trade deadline last July. Peavy made only 3 starts with the Sox last season as he spent most of his tenure with the team rehabbing his ankle injury. In those 3 starts, Peavy showed glimpses of a return to Cy Young form as he went 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 18 K in 20 IP. Critics of Peavy feel he is a beneficiary of pitching in a pitcher’s ballpark in San Diego and that his numbers will decline pitching in a more hitter-friendly ballpark in U.S. Cellular Field, along with the more potent AL lineups. However, Peavy has some of the best stuff in the game and has Cy Young credentials to go along with a bulldog mentality. Look for Peavy to rebound in a big way and re-establish himself as the ace of the White Sox and one of the elite starters in baseball.

Bill James Projection: 16-8, 3.18 ERA, 215 IP, 217 K (9.08 K/9), 1.16 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 16-10, 3.66 ERA, 203 IP, 211 K (9.35 K/9), 1.27 WHIP

• Grady Sizemore (OF) Cleveland Indians – Sizemore went into last season as one of the top fantasy outfielders in the game as he was coming off his first 30-30 season in 2008 ( 33 HR-38 SB). However, fantasy owners were disappointed last season as Sizemore was a victim of playing through some nagging injuries that cost him 56 games and hurt his production. Last September, Sizemore had surgeries on both his elbow and lower abdomen with the hope of a healthy and productive 2010 campaign. However, Sizemore’s off season got off to a rough start as some risque’ photos of himself made their way on the Internet. Sizemore is reportedly ready for Spring Training and eager to put the incident and his disappointing 2009 season to rest this season. Sizemore is still only 27 years old and has a chip on his shoulder to prove he is a star-in-the-making. Look  for him to rebound and put together at least a 20 HR-20 SB campaign. While he won’t be taken in the first round this year, he won’t last much longer after that as he excites fantasy owners with his rare combination of power and speed.

Bill James Projection: .272 AVG, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 101 Runs, 21 SB, .853 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .271 AVG, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 98 Runs, 25 SB, .851 OPS

• Ben Sheets (RHP) Oakland Athletics – Sheets has arguably the most to prove of any player on this list. After missing the entire 2009 season to a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, Sheets is looking to prove that he can put together a healthy campaign and return to his All-Star form. After holding a throwing session for multiple MLB scouts last month, Sheets impressed enough to receive a one-year deal worth $10 million plus incentives with the A’s. Sheets now finds himself pitching in one of best pitchers’ park in all of baseball in Oakland and will be counted on to be the ace of the staff. When healthy, Sheets provides great strikeout totals and a solid ERA for fantasy owners. His numbers should be solid pitching in Oakland and he could see a spike in fantasy value as a possible mid-season pickup for a contender at the trade deadline. However, many fantasy owners are wary of Sheets injury history,as they should be, and will be skeptical to use a top pick on the pitcher. However, Sheets should be rested after missing a full season and is expected to go full steam in Spring Training. Sheets has the potential to be an excellent value in the middle rounds as a No. 3 fantasy starter.

CHONE Projection: 7-6, 4.11 ERA, 114 IP, 81 K ( 6.39 K/9), 1.30 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 10-9, 3.52 ERA, 166 IP, 121 K (6.56 K/9), 1.26 WHIP

• B.J. Upton (OF) Tampa Bay Rays – After hitting 8 postseason HR in the Rays’ 2008 run to the World Series, fantasy owners were drooling at the thought of Upton becoming the next 30-30 man in baseball. However, Upton underwent off season surgery on his shoulder which caused him to develop some bad habits at the plate and altered his mechanics. Despite helping fantasy owners with 42 SB last season, Upton disappointed fantasy owners in every other major category as he finished with a .241 AVG, 11 HR, and 55 RBI in 144 games. According to Peter Gammons of MLB.com, Upton has been working hard this off season with Rays’ hitting coach Derek Shelton on getting comfortable at the plate and staying consistent in his approach. Upton is an ideal bounceback candidate in the AL as he is still only 25 years old and should be fully healed from his shoulder issues. A return to his 20 HR form in 2007 and 40 plus SB shouldn’t be far off. Fantasy owners might finally be pleased with what they see in B.J. Upton this season.

Bill James Projection: .266 AVG, 13 HR, 59 RBI, 81 Runs, 39 SB, .768 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .268 AVG, 14 HR, 71 RBI, 88 Runs, 40 SB, .789 OPS

• Josh Hamilton (OF) Texas Rangers – After bursting on the scene in 2008 with MVP-like numbers with a .304 AVG, 32 HR, and 130 RBI, Hamilton found the injury-bug  last season as he had two stints on the DL that limited him to 336 AB. The Rangers are looking to alleviate the strain on Hamilton’s body by moving him to left field this season with the hopes he can regain his form from 2008. Hamilton also has the luxury of hitting in a hitters’ park especially friendly on left-handed hitters. He will find himself in the middle of a potent lineup with Vladimir Guerrero as his protection, which should increase the number of quality pitches he will see. Hamilton is entering the prime of his career at 28 years old and should provide good power numbers for fantasy owners. While he might not reach his totals from 2008, Hamilton should provide 20-25 HR and 90-100 RBI in the Rangers lineup. He is a perfect buy-low candidate and should have a better season for fantasy owners this season.

Bill James Projection: .293 AVG, 23 HR, 91 RBI, 75 Runs, .860 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .291 AVG, 25 HR, 92 RBI, 77 Runs, .860 OPS

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Up Next: NL Bounceback Candidates

]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-previewal-bounceback-candidates/feed 5 http://www.amateurgm.com/top-prospects-analysis-part-two http://www.amateurgm.com/top-prospects-analysis-part-two#comments Thu, 04 Feb 2010 18:46:38 +0000 Ryan Oleniczak http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=968 Earlier this week, I took a look at Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com top 10 prospects for 2010. Today, I want to highlight Keith Law of ESPN.com and his list of top 10 prospects and how it compares to Mayo’s list. While most of the prospects find their names on both top 10 lists, there are a few that find their names on this list only. Let’s get to Law’s list with the prospects ranking on Mayo’s list in parentheses.

ESPN.com’s 2010 Top 10 Prospects

1. Jason Heyward (OF) Atlanta Braves (1) – The consensus overall No.1 prospect on both lists. Braves fans should be excited for the arrival of this 5 tool talent in the near future.

2. Stephen Strasburg (RHP) Washington Nationals (2) – The consensus top pitching prospect on both lists. The Nationals hope Strasburg lives up to all the hype and brings home a Cy Young Award in the future.

3. Carlos Santana (C) Cleveland Indians (11) – Santana just missed cracking the top 10 on Mayo’s list, but safely finds his name on this list. Santana is a switch-hitting catcher who has left scouts raving about his ability to change the game with both his arm and bat. He has drawn comparisons to the player he is expecting to replace in Cleveland, Victor Martinez. The Indians are expected to give Santana one more year of seasoning in the minors before making him their everyday backstop in 2011.

4. Buster Posey (C) San Francisco Giants (4) – The battle for the title of the top catching prospect in the game between Santana and Posey was won by Santana on this list. However, Posey safely finds his name at No. 4 on both lists and is looking like a potential cornerstone behind the plate for many years.

5. Mike Stanton (OF) Florida Marlins (3) – Stanton takes a little step back on this list, but finds his name in the top 5 on both lists. Many scouts are in unison of their praise of Stanton and his ability to drive in runs and hit the long ball better than anyone in the minors. Marlins fans should see him patrolling right field very soon.

6. Desmond Jennings (OF) Tampa Bay Rays (6) – Jennings anchors the 6th spot on both lists. The question in Tampa is can they make an outfield with Carl Crawford in LF, Jennings in CF, and B.J. Upton in RF happen. Crawford is a free agent after the season and is questionable to return. However unlikely the possibility of all three players in the outfield together, Rays fans can dream of such a scenario which would be the fastest and most exciting outfield in all of baseball.

7. Martin Perez (LHP) Texas Rangers (18) – The Rangers find another pitching prospect in the top 10 in Perez. The 19-year old lefty has drawn comparisons to fellow lefty Johan Santana with his size and stuff. The Rangers will be cautious with Perez as he is still extremely young. He isn’t expected to reach the majors until 2012 at the earliest, but Perez’s progress could speed up the process sooner. The Rangers organization is ecstatic about their young arms and Perez could be the best.

8. Dustin Ackley (2B) Seattle Mariners (15) – The 2nd overall pick of the 2009 draft is making the switch from CF to 2B this season. How well Ackley adjusts to the position change will determine how fast he reaches the majors. He was considered the most advanced hitter in last year’s draft as he provides a high average with a great knack for getting on base. The only knock on Ackley is that his power has yet to develop and is still a work in progress. Currently, the Mariners have him penciled him for a trip to the majors at some point in 2011, but could be be later than that due to the position change.

9. Justin Smoak (1B) Texas Rangers (9) – Another name to find his name on both lists and at the same spot as well. Smoak would be penciled into most starting lineups this season, however, the Rangers don’t have room for his services this season with Chris Davis at first and Vladimir Guerrero as the primary DH. As mentioned before, Smoak has drawn comparisons to Mark Teixeira and should be a big-time run producer in the majors.

10. Jesus Montero (C) New York Yankees (19) – Another catching prospect cracks the top 10 as the Yankees hope they have find their successor to Jorge Posada behind the plate. Montero’s defense has been questioned, but he was reported to make progress behind the plate last season. There is no question about Montero’s ability to swing the bat as he has immense power and plate discipline. The Yankees have kept Montero’s name out of trade discussions and that says a lot. The team should have no problem behind the plate after Posada departs.

It is interesting to see the different top prospects list that come out every year. You often hear the term “can’t-miss prospect” loosely in baseball, which is true sometimes. The developmental process in baseball is crucial for sustained success in the league. The Braves of the 90s and the Twins are two organizations that seemingly always have a knack for producing quality home-grown talent. The Rays are a team that I see starting to follow that mold as they are starting to produce some exciting young arms and hitters. For a complete list of Law’s rankings please visit the link above.

]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/top-prospects-analysis-part-two/feed 0 http://www.amateurgm.com/luxury-tax-blues-leveling-the-playing-field-or-rewarding-the-noncompetitive http://www.amateurgm.com/luxury-tax-blues-leveling-the-playing-field-or-rewarding-the-noncompetitive#comments Tue, 29 Dec 2009 05:40:57 +0000 Andrew Swanson http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=696 The New York Yankees recently were hit with a $25.7 million luxury tax bill. They were the only team this year that had to pay a luxury tax and they are the only team that consistently pays one since the tax started seven years ago. Since its inception the tax has raised $190 million with the Yankees contributing $170 million of that total. The Red Sox have paid $13.9 million for the 2004-07 campaigns. The Detroit Tigers paid $1.3 million in 2008 and Los Angeles Angels contributed $927,059 in 2004.

Major League Baseball uses the average annual values of contracts plus benefits for players on the 40 man roster to determine the $162 million cut off for the luxury tax. The Yankees payroll in 2009 including signing bonuses and prorated contracts finished at $220 million. That was $77.8 million more then any other team in the league. The difference is also higher than payroll for each of the bottom 11 teams. Boston was next at $140.5 million followed by the Detroit Tigers at $139.4 million and the Phillies at $138.3 million. Florida again was last in the majors, even though the Marlins raised their payroll by $10.5 million to $37.5 million.

Many people think that the luxury tax system is not achieving the level playing field it set out to make.  Only two teams outside the top 11 by payroll made the postseason in 2009: Colorado (16th at $84.5 million) and Minnesota (23rd at $73.1 million). Some like the idea of setting a payroll floor in order to guarantee the revenue that teams receive is used for improving the competitiveness of the big league clubs as opposed to going directly into the profit column for the owners. In essence this luxury tax has the possibility of subsidizing owners that have no desire to “win” in the first place and simply pocket the money.

Just for fun take a look at this. Listed below are the names of the owners currently worth more than Steinbrenner and the teams they are currently in charge of:

• Seattle Mariners: Nintendo Corporation: $257.4 billion
• Minnesota Twins: Carl Pohlad: $3.6 billion
• Washington Nationals: Theodore N. Lerner: $3.5 billion
• Cleveland Indians: Larry Dolan: $3.3 billion
• Atlanta Braves: Liberty Media: $2.3 billion
• Houston Astros: Drayton McLane, Jr.: $1.6 billion
• Detroit Tigers: Mike Illitch: $1.6 billion
• Texas Rangers: Thomas O. Hicks: $1.4 billion
• Chicago Cubs: Thomas S. Rickets: $1.3 billion

Granted MLB is a for profit business and each team is individually owned and operated. They are entitled to their revenue and should be able to spend it as they see fit. However, should they be allowed to profit from teams like the Yankees who do invest heavily in payroll? It will be interesting to see how things are handled with the new collective bargaining agreement that needs to be negotiated in 2011.

How would you handle this situation? Do you share revenue equally across the board or do you cut off the “free” money and let the market decide?