1. Evan Longoria (24) – 60 HR and 198 RBI in first 2 seasons. Off to a great start in 2010 and should add an MVP to his collection soon.

2. Justin Upton (22) – 20 HR-20 SB guy last year. Arguably the best athlete in baseball who should reach 30 HR-30 SB in the near future.

3. Pablo Sandoval (23) – .300 hitter with 25-30 HR and 90-100 RBI ability. “Kung Fu Panda” is already a fan favorite and feared hitter.

4. Jason Heyward (20) – 2010 No. 1 prospect has gotten off to a .302, 3 HR, 15 RBI start in 43 big league at-bats at the age of 20. Looks to be the leader of the newest crop of talent from the minor leagues.

5. Matt Wieters (23) – The most-hyped prospect of 2009 has uncanny power and hitting ability from both sides of the plate. Look for Wieters to make huge strides this season and become one of the premier catchers in the near future.

6. Billy Butler (24) – .301 AVG, 21 HR, and 93 RBI in first full season. Set to become a premier slugger with 30 HR-100 RBI not out of the question.

7. Carlos Gonzalez (24) – 5-tool talent that started to showcase those tools last season. Should be a mainstay in the Rockies outfield and top of the order for years to come.

8. Adam Jones (24) – One of the best athletes on this list. Great arm and 20 HR-20 SB talent.

9. Andrew McCutchen (23) – Another 5-tool talent from the leadoff spot. Outstanding speed and developing power. Set to become premier leadoff hitter in the majors.

10. Gordon Beckham (23) – Future All-Star 2B. Made the leap from Double-A to the majors last season and displayed a good hitting prowess. The future of the White Sox.

11. Jay Bruce (23) – Has struggled to hit consistently at the big league level. The former No. 1 overall prospect has arguably the most upside of any hitter on this list and has the potential to become a big run-producer.

12. Delmon Young (24) – Like Bruce, has failed to hit consistently enough to live up to his enormous potential. Still a great talent with good upside who has hit a solid .289 for his career. Entering a make or break year in the big leagues.

13. Chris Coghlan (24) – 2009 NL Rookie of the Year is a scrappy top of the order hitter. Shows good plate discipline and should hit for a high average in his career.

14. Colby Rasmus (23) – Has above-average power and speed from the left side who hit 16 HR for the Cardinals in his rookie campaign last season. Solid defender who should be a premier center fielder within the next few years.

15. Elvis Andrus (21) – Biggest assets are his speed and defense. A future Gold Glover who projects as a leadoff hitter and threat on the basepaths.

16. Cameron Maybin (23) – One of the most talented players on this list. Currently hitting near the top of the Marlins lineup with his great speed, but has the ability to become a middle of the order hitter as he continues to grow into his frame. Looking to put it together in his first full season this year.

17. Dexter Fowler (24) – Had an up and down season at the plate last season with the Rockies as he needs to hit for a higher average. An elite defender and base-stealer (27 SB in ’09) who should be a top of the order threat with Gonzalez in the Rockies outfield.

18. Kyle Blanks (23) – After hitting 10 HR in only 148 AB last season for the Padres, the 6-6/285 lb big man projects as a huge power threat in the near future. Despite his large frame, reminiscent of the “Big Hurt” Frank Thomas, he is athletic enough to play in the outfield, though his natural position is at first base.

19. Austin Jackson (23) – The newest Tiger has gotten off to a solid start (.333 AVG, 5 RBI, 2 SB from the leadoff spot) in his first big league season. Jackson ironically projects similarly to the man he was traded for in Curtis Granderson. Look for him to rise up this list next season.

20. Alcides Escobar (23) – In his first season as the Brewers everyday shortstop. A potential game-changer with both his glove and speed.  Hit .304 in 125 AB with the Brewers last year.

21. Ike Davis (23) – The Mets top prospect made his major league debut last night against the Cubs and didn’t disappoint by going 2 for 4 with an RBI. The 18th overall selection in the 2008 draft hit 20 HR in the minors last year along with a .298 AVG. He projects as a middle of the order threat from the left side of the plate.

22. Ian Desmond (24) – The former 3rd round pick of the Nationals in 2004 is finally starting to put it together. Desmond is a late-bloomer who is starting to hit for contact consistently. He earned the starting nod at short over Cristian Guzman and looks to be the Nationals shortstop of the future.

23. Tyler Colvin (24) – After hitting .468 with 2 HR and 18 RBI in 25 Spring Training games this year, Colvin earned a spot on the Cubs 25 man roster. Currently a part of a 5 man outfield rotation in Chicago, Colvin doesn’t project to provide off the chart numbers this year. However, the former first round pick can swing the bat and also provides above average speed. Look for his name in the coming years.

24. Everth Cabrera (23) – A Rule 5 pick of the Padres last season, Cabrera took the shortstop position as his own by displaying great work with the glove and providing 25 SB in 103 games. Cabrera must hit for a higher average to become an even bigger threat on the basepaths.

25. Asdrubal Cabrera (24) – Has proven to be a solid major league infielder as his bat as caught up to his great defense. In 2009, he hit .308 and provided 68 RBI and 17 SB for the Indians. While he might not reach star status, he should have a long and productive big league career.

Honorable Mention: Julio Borbon (24), Sean Rodriguez (24), Chris Davis (24), Reid Brignac (24)

Minnesota Twins: The Twinkees are always competitive. They have a very regimented process to move their minor leaguers up to the majors, requiring them to complete specific tasks and to do them consistently. Their owner, James Pohlad, is actually the second richest owner in the majors with a net worth of $3.6 billion. It will also be interesting to see how the staff deals with having to pitch outside in early spring and late fall now that they don’t have the comforts of the Metrodome. This new stadium could save them a lot of hits that use to skip through the infield on the AstroTurf.  The Twins rotation has a potential price tag of $12.6 dollars for 2010.

• Scott Baker: Baker doesn’t have overpowering stuff but is extremely accurate. At the beginning of the ’09 season he struggled but he turned things around to compile his best overall season yet. He is 28 years old and entering the prime of his career. He threw for a 4.37 ERA, 162 K’s, 200 IP and 48 walks. He will earn $3 million in 2010.
• Kevin Slowey: Slowey is another solid middle of the rotation guy that the Twins seem to put out on the field every year. He lost some time due to wrist surgery last season but is expected to be fully healthy to start the year. He posted a 4.86 ERA, 75 K’s, 90.2 IP and 15 walks last year. He will earn near near the minimum in 2010.
• Carl Pavano: Pavano has solid stuff and he made a killing at the Yankees expense in 2005. He then proceeded to rarely pitch the next three seasons while raking in the dough. His numbers have never been stellar but there is a ton of potential there. He threw for a 5.10 ERA, 147 K’s, 199.1 IP and 39 BB. He will make $7 million this season.
• Nick Blackburn: Blackburn is a solid back of the rotation starter. He will eat innings for you and will keep you in the game. He isn’t flashy and will never have good strikeout numbers. He pitched for a 4.03 ERA, 98 K’s, 205.2 IP and 41 walks. He will earn near the minimum.
• Brian Duensing: Duensing will be in competition for the 5th starter position this season in spring training. He posted good numbers over the 9 games he started last year. He threw for a 3.64 ERA, 53 K’s, 84 IP and 31 walks. He will earn the minimum this season.
• Francisco Liriano: Liriano has been a source of many headaches in the Twin Cities over the past few seasons. He burst on to the scene in 2006 with Cy Young numbers only to have injury issues and then control problems in subsequent seasons. He needs to prove to Ron Gardenhire that he can consistently throw strikes to earn the fifth starter position this year. He will make $1.6 million in 2010.

Detroit Tigers: I personally believe the Tigers are in a transition phase this season. They seem to be spending money this year to compete but a lot of other money and dead weight will be coming off the books this fall. The Tigers do have a lot of young talent going for them which is a definite plus. Injuries as always will be a key factor with Tigers and staying competitive in 2010. The Tigers have a potential rotation cost of anywhere between $20.75 million to $41.75 million depending on who earns spots at the back end of the rotation. I think they will end up being closer to the $20 million mark then $40 million.

• Justin Verlander: The Tigers just resigned Verlander to a 5-year $80 million deal. He is one of the best and brightest pitchers around. He will be the anchor of the Tigers staff for years to come. He threw for a 3.45 ERA, 269 K’s, 240 IP and 63 BB. He will earn $6.75 million in 2010.
• Rick Porcello: Porcello turn in a great year last season and made a very strong push for rookie of the year. He didn’t display much strike out potential but he has plenty of room to grow in the future. At the young age of 21 the Tigers need to make sure they don’t over work this promising arm. He threw for a 3.96 ERA, 89 K’s, 170.2 IP and 52 BB. He will earn near the minimum.
• Max Scherzer: Scherzer is another very talented young arm in the Tigers’ rotation. He came over in a trade this offseason so we will have to see how he adjusts to the American League. His pitching motion can make you nervous at the potential for injury but if he stays healthy he has the potential to be a star in the future. He threw for a 4.12 ERA, 174 K’s, 170.1 IP and 63 BB. He will earn near the minimum.
• Jeremy Bonderman: Bonderman has provided the Tigers’ faithful with a lot of disappointment. He has good stuff but it has never seemed to translate into really good major league success. He has battled a lot of injuries over this career and has yet to post an ERA under 4.08. He will need to prove himself worthy this year as his contract is expiring at the end of the season. He missed a majority of the 2009 season and threw for a 8.71 ERA, 5 K’s, 10.1 IP and 8 walks. He will make $12.5 million in 2010.
• Armando Galarraga: After a strong rookie season Galarraga had himself a sophomore slump last season. He deserves the benefit of the doubt and will most likely contend for a rotation spot after losing his spot at the end of the 2009 season. He threw for a 5.64 ERA, 95 K’s, 143.2 IP and 67 walks. He will earn near the minimum.
• Nate Robertson: Robertson is another contract that the Tigers will be glad to take off the books at the end of the season. He showed potential and was a great innings eater but has since been competing for the 5th spot in the rotation for the past 2 years. He posted a 5.44 ERA, 35 K’s, 49.2 IP, 28 walks and only started 6 games. He makes $10 million in 2010.
• Dontrelle Willis: Uh… yeah well most of you know the disaster Willis has been for the Tigers. He can not seem to throw a strike to save his life. I doubt he will earn the 5th starter spot but he will be in consideration during spring training. In 7 starts he threw for a 7.49 ERA, 17 K’s, 33.2 IP and 28 BB. He will make $12 million in 2010.

Chicago White Sox: The White Sox made an effort to change organizational direction this season. They shifted from an offensive-based team to a more well rounded defense and speed-based team. While the majority of their starters are the same, the key addition of Jake Peavy has set the White Sox up with a bonafide ace which they seemed to be lacking. Kenny Williams has had great success in building their rotation threw trading away prospects and gaining quality players in return. On paper they seem to be the best and most well rounded rotation in the division. However are they being thrifty enough to win the best rotation in the AL Central? They are currently shelling out $37.2 million for their hurlers in 2010.

• Mark Buehrle: There are not many sure things when it comes to baseball but Buehrle is a close as it gets. He is a finesse pitcher through and through. He has thrown over 200 innings in each of his 9 seasons as a full time starter. Last season he threw for a 3.84 ERA, 105 K’s, 213.1 IP and 45 BB. He will earn $14 million in 2010.
• Jake Peavy: Peavy is top tier starter no matter what league he is pitching in. He has electric stuff and would be the ace on anyone’s staff. He does have an injury history but nothing too serious so far. Last season he threw for a 3.45 ERA, 110 K’s, 101.2 and 34 walks. He earns $15 million in 2010.
• Gavin Floyd: After struggling with control problems for a long time Floyd righted the ship in the 2008 season with the White Sox and seem to continue this trend last season. He isn’t the ace people originally thought he would be when first drafted but he is a strong starter and is a great option to have in the middle to back of your rotation. He threw for a 4.06 ERA, 163 K’s, 193 IP and 59 BB. He earns $2.75 million.
• John Danks: Danks is a solid middle of the rotation option. While he isn’t a flame thrower he gets his fair share of strike outs. He is young and looks to improve on his numbers from last season. He pitched for a 3.77 ERA, 149 K’s, 200.1 IP, 73 walks. He will earn $3.45 million in 2010.
• Freddy Garcia: Garcia is a big question mark. He performed well at the end of last season but has suffered from a shoulder injury for the past two years. He will be competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. He threw for a 4.34 ERA, 37 K’s, 56 IP and 12 walks. He will make up to $2 million next season if he hits all his performance bonuses.
• Daniel Hudson: Hudson rocketed up through the White Sox minor league system last season pitching at every single level within the organization. He also had success at every single level. He will give Freddy Garcia some stiff competition in spring training for the 5th starter spot. Hudson threw for a 3.38 ERA, 14 K’s, 18.2 IP and 9 walks. He will make the minimum.

Kansas City Royals: The Royals have been in the cellar of the AL Central for quite a while. However, there is a bright future ahead of them if all their stars play to their potential and if they can hold on to them for a decent amount of time before their contracts become too expensive for them to sustain. The rotation is very promising and is finally able to keep the Royals semi competitive with their more talented competitors. The two biggest questions they have are how effective will the back end of their rotation be and can Gil Meche return to form? They are spending $25.11 million for their starters in 2010.

• Zack Greinke: Greinke is arguably the best pitcher in the AL Central. He won the AL Cy Young award last season by posting a 2.16 ERA, 242 K’s, 229.1 IP and 51 walks. He will be the force to contend with in KC for years to come and the Royals fans are excited. He will earn $7.25 million in 2010.
• Gil Meche: Meche was a surprise signing a few years ago by the Royals coming over from the Mariners and he has anchored their rotation well. Last season his numbers slipped but he is still the solid number 2 in their rotation. He threw for a 5.09 ERA 95 K’s, 129 IP and 58 walks. He will earn $12 million in 2010.
• Luke Hochevar: Hochevar is the definition of diamond in the rough. He has great potential as the top pick in the 2008 draft and looks to improve upon his performance last season. It was feast or famine last season for Hochevar, who permitted at least six earned runs in nine starts and also held the opposition to two earned runs or fewer in eight outings. He threw for a 6.55 ERA, 106 K’s, 143 IP and 46 walks. He makes $1.76 million in 2010.
• Kyle Davies: Davies saved his best for last in 2009, going 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA over his final four starts of the campaign. The problem is he also enjoyed a strong finish to ’08 by going 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA after the start of September, and he hasn’t been able to capture that form in the other five months of the season. He threw for a 5.27 ERA, 86 K’s, 123 IP and 66 BB. He earns $1.8 million.
• Brian Bannister: Bannister is a decent option at the end of the Royals rotation. He doesn’t have great stuff but what he does have he makes good use of. He kept the Royals in games when he pitched and has a tendency to get on a roll. He posted a 4.73 ERA, 98 K’s, 154 IP and 50 walks. He earns $2.3 million in 2010.
• Robinson Tejeda: Tejeda worked the majority of last season out of the bullpen but was given the chance to start in September and never looked back going 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 9.09 K/9 ratio in six outings. He will probably be given a long look in spring training but we are not sure how the Royals plan on utilizing him. He threw for 3.54 ERA, 87 K’s, 73.2 IP and 50 BB. He earns $950 thousand in 2010.

Cleveland Indians: The Indians look to be in a rough spot coming into the 2010 season. There doesn’t seem to be any super strong pitchers in their rotation and there are a ton of question marks toward the back end. They traded away several of their aces in Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia over last few seasons and they will be looking to see if anyone can step up into that open role. Manny Acta will have his work cut out for him this spring training as he tries to piece together a lot of raw young pitchers into a working, viable rotation. They are paying $17.4 million for their starting pitchers in 2010.

• Jake Westbrook: Westbrook last pitched for the Indians in June of 2008 before having Tommy John surgery. He will be the defacto ace of the staff in 2009. In his last full season (2007) he posted a 4.32 ERA, 93 K’s, 152 IP and 55 walks. He will make $11 million in 2010.
• Fausto Carmona: Carmona is displayed his potential in 2007 winning 19 games but he imploded and has not been able to find that success again so far. He has struggled mightily with his control. He is young and still has time to right the ship but he can’t be counted on to be a steady contributor. He threw for a 6.32 ERA, 79 K’s, 125.1 IP and 70 walks. He will make $4.9 million.
• Justin Masterson: Masterson has spent the majority of his career in the bullpen. He is predominately a two pitch pitcher which could limit his effectiveness in the future but he has good velocity and good bite on his slider. He will look to solidify a position in the rotation this year. He threw for a 4.52 era, 119 K’s, 129.1 IP and 60 walks. He will earn near the minimum.
• David Huff: Huff struggled last season but left a positive impression at the end going 4-1 over his last 5 starts. He will look to improve on his rookie performance and has had a good track record at every level he has played. Huff threw for a 5.61 ERA, 65 K’s, 128.1 IP and 41 BB. He earns the minimum.
• Aaron Laffey: Laffey is a finesse pitcher who tops out around 87 mph on his fastball. He has proven that he can get guys out but needs to be very consistent. He is young like most of his fellow starters and looks to carve a niche for himself. He threw for 4.44 ERA, 59 K’s, 121.2 IP and 57 walks. He will earn the minimum.
• Jeremy Sowers: Sowers is also a soft tosser who doesn’t seem to be able to get outs as consistently as his teammate Laffey. He threw for 5.25 ERA, 51 K’s, 123.1 IP and 52 walks. He earns near the minimum.
• Carlos Carrasco: Carrasco was the key player in the Cliff Lee deal from the Phillies. He is armed with a lively mid-90s fastball, a changeup and a curve, the key for him has been consistency, and he’s generally taken a little time to adapt to each level. He threw for a 8.87 ERA, 11 K’s, 22.1 IP and 11 BB. He will earn the minimum.

There is a wide range of talent being offered in the starting rotations for the AL Central. The Chicago White Sox have the best overall talent on their roster and seem to have the most solidified rotation coming into spring training. However, they have the highest price tag associated with their talent. That is why I have to give my vote to the Twins. They may not have the best talent on their team, but for what they are paying them, they have the most potential and the best cost efficiency.

Shapiro has had the role of general manager for the Indians going on nine seasons. He started with the Indians back in 1992 and has worked his way up to the top. Shapiro earn the “Executive of the Year” award in 2005 and 2007. Bud Selig also named him to the recently established “On-Field Matters” committee.

Antonetti first job in major league baseball was with the Montreal Expos. As assistant to Shapiro, Antonetti has worked very closely with the contract negotiations and he also oversees the farm system, professional scouting department, and statistical analysis systems.

The Indians are coming off a horrendous season in which they lost 97 games and tied the Kansas City Royals for last place in the AL Central division. Shapiro’s hand-picked manager Eric Wedge lost his job due to the poor performance of this team. However, there are some bright spots for the club. Grady Sizemore is a potential Comeback Player of the Year for the Indians after missing a large portion of the season due to injury. Shin-Soo Choo established himself as a very well-rounded outfielder hitting .300 with 20 home runs, 86 RBI, and 21 stolen bases.

Antonetti will definitely have his work cut out for him next off season.

• Matt Wieters (C) Baltimore Orioles – Wieters came into the league last season as a hyped can’t-miss prospect. While he didn’t display the numbers many hoped for last season, he has fantasy owners encouraged by his second half line of a .301 AVG, 6 HR, and 33 RBI along with a .362 AVG last September. He will be handed the everyday job this season and has power that is still developing. Wieters has arguably the most upside of any young hitter and is an All-Star in the making.

Bill James Projection: .311 AVG, 20 HR, 92 RBI, 75 Runs, .865 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .304 AVG, 19 HR, 90 RBI, 81 Runs, .856 OPS

• Adam Jones (OF) Baltimore Orioles – Another Orioles youngster has the chance to reach his great potential this season. The former Seattle Mariners prospect played his second season in the Orioles outfield last season and put up some respectable numbers for fantasy owners. While he has battled some nagging foot injuries the past two seasons which included missing all of September last season, his power numbers took a step up as he increased his HR from 9 in 2008 to 19 last season. Jones also possesses good speed, but has yet to translate that into SB so far in his career which could be due to his foot injuries. He has the talent to be a consistent 20 HR-20 SB player in this league and the possibility exists that he could reach those numbers this season. I predict a Justin Upton-like performance from Jones this season.

Bill James Projection: .284 AVG, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 95 Runs, 13 SB, .804 OPS

MLB.com Projection:  .283 AVG, 21 HR, 86 RBI, 90 Runs, 14 SB, .807 OPS

• Gordon Beckham (2B) Chicago White Sox – The 2008 first round draft pick of the White Sox needed only 233 AB in the minors to reach the big league club last season and he did not disappoint in his time in the majors. Some would argue that Beckham was snubbed for the Rookie of the Year Award last season as he finished fifth in the voting despite finished with a solid .270 AVG, 14 HR, and 63 RBI in only 378 AB. Beckham will be a solid choice for fantasy owners this season as he should display more power with more AB and also brings the added luxury of multiple position eligibility as he will shift from third to second base this season.

Bill James Projection: .307 AVG, 17 HR, 81 RBI, 67 Runs, .837 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .307 AVG, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 86 Runs, .875 OPS

• Franklin Gutierrez (OF) Seattle Mariners – Gutierrez saw time as an everyday center fielder for the first time in his career last season with the Mariners. He rewarded the Mariners with a solid season in which he had a .283 AVG, 18 HR, 70 RBI, and 16 SB. I expect Gutierrez to take the next step in his career with a new contract in tow and an improved lineup around him in Seattle. He is entering the prime of his career as he will turn 27 this season and a 20 HR-20 SB season isn’t unrealistic for this season. Gutierrez could be quite a pickup for fantasy owners this season.

Bill James Projection: .277 AVG, 17 HR, 67 RBI, 88 Runs, 14 SB, .773 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .278 AVG, 16 HR, 74 RBI, 87 Runs, 18 SB, .758 OPS

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Up Next: NL Breakout Candidates

]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-preview-al-breakout-candidates/feed 6 http://www.amateurgm.com/vladimir-guerrero-is-seeking-a-2-year-deal http://www.amateurgm.com/vladimir-guerrero-is-seeking-a-2-year-deal#comments Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:00:00 +0000 Andrew Swanson http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=503 Lyle Spencer of MLB.com says that Vladimir Guerrero (OF, DH) is seeking a 2-year deal and would like to stay in Los Angeles because that is where is his family has settled. Guerrero has been one of the most consistent sluggers in the game. Prior to 2009 for twelve consecutive years he hit at least .300 and had 25 or more homers for eleven straight seasons. However, Guerrero’s number took a dip in 2009 with a .295 BA and 15 homers. He has had a number of health problems through out the years as well. Just last year, he came into the season having recovered from knee surgery and took two trip to the DL for a leg issue and a torn pectoral muscle.

There is no denying that when healthy Guerrero is an offensive machine. He can hit almost any pitch thrown to him with power and has one of the widest strike zones in baseball. Every team would love to have his type of production in their lineup, but is he a good fit for every team? Even though Guerrero says he wants to play the field there are serious doubts his body can take the physical strain which is why the Angels using him almost exclusively as DH last season. These physical ailments most likely eliminate Guerrero from going to a NL team. It is just too risky to have him in your outfield with the potential to lose all that production at the plate due to injury. This is going to relegate him to playing in the AL where you have the option of having him in your lineup at the DH position. So which team is willing to take the risk and where does he best fit?

Los Angeles Angels: The Angels have a long standing relationship with Guerrero and he is happy there. There outfield is crowded at the moment with guys like Torii Hunter, Gary Matthews and Juan Rivera, so Guerrero would stay at DH. However the Angels may lose John Lackey as well to free agency and they need to replace Chone Figgins at third base which may take priority at this point.

Texas Rangers: Guerrero would fit well in the Rangers’ lineup. His numbers would most likely see a boost from their ballpark and he would have a lot of protection in the line-up hitting around Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young. The Rangers have expressed interest in Guerrero but I don’t see him being high on their list of needs.

Kansas City Royals: Due to his recent injury history, Guerrero may be able to be had on the cheap so the Royals should take a look. Guerrero would provide a significant boost to the offense and would also provide some veteran leadership to the club. They do seem to have a log jam at the DH spot with Mike Jacobs and Billy Butler rotating in between turns at first base. The odd man out in this situation would be Jacobs who hit 19 HR but batted a horrible .228 last year.

Chicago White Sox: The White Sox are in need of a good DH. Guerrero would fit in well. US Cellular Field is a hitters ball park but the Sox are in need of left-handed power. Kenny Williams has also eluded to the fact he does not want to sign someone who can only play DH and Guerrero’s days in the field are getting shorter.

Guerrero posses an interesting dilema for most major league teams. Is he worth the risk? That depends on your situation. Where do you think he will go?

Blockbuster 3-way trade? – According to Foxsports.com, the New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Detroit Tigers have discussed a possible three-way trade that would be the biggest news of the meetings’ so far. While the teams are still discussing which players are part of the deal, the biggest names being discussed in the proposed deal are Tigers’ Curtis Granderson (CF) going to the Yankees, Tigers’ starter Edwin Jackson (RHP) going to the Diamondbacks, and Diamondbacks starter Max Scherzer (RHP) going to the Tigers.

Rays Enter the Halladay Talks? – The Tampa Bay Rays are reportedly interested in trading for Toronto Blue Jays Roy Halladay (RHP) with B.J. Upton (CF) and prospect Wade Davis (RHP) the possible trade bait for the Jays. However, Marc Topkin writes that the Halladay rumor is “preposterous” and that the Rays were merely checking in on the trade talks for Halladay.

Milton Bradley Rumors – ESPN Chicago’s Bruce Levine reported that the Chicago Cubs and Kansas City Royals discussed a potential swap of Bradley (OF) involving starter Gil Meche (RHP). However, both Cubs and Royals officials have denied any discussions. ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports that the Cubs have been approached by two more teams besides the Rays and Rangers with interest in trading for Bradley. The most likely trading partner for the Cubs remains the Rays with Pat Burrell (OF) coming to the Cubs in exchange for Bradley.

Brad Penny to the Cardinals – MLB.com’s Matthew Leach writes that Brad Penny (RHP) has signed a one year deal with the St. Louis Cardinals worth $7.5 million pending a physical. Incentives could make the deal worth $9 million for this season. The Cardinals are looking to Penny to replace the expected free agent departure of starter Joel Pineiro (RHP) in their rotation.

Randy Wolf to the Brewers - SI.com’s Jon Heyman tweeted that the Milwaukee Brewers are the leaders in the Randy Wolf (LHP) free agent sweepstakes. The Brewers are expected to wrap up a 3-year deal with Wolf by the end of the meetings.

Adam Everett resigns with the Tigers – John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press reported that Adam Everett (SS) resigned with the Tigers for a 1-year deal.  Espn’s Buster Olney tweeted that the deal is for $1.55 million.

Pudge to the Nationals – According to Yahoo’s Tim Brown, the Washington Nationals have signed Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez (C) to a 2-year deal worth $6 million. Pudge is ready to take his game back to the NL where he is expected to be a mentor to the Nationals bounty of young pitching led by 2009 No. 1 draft pick, Stephen Strasburg.

Day One of the Winter Meetings is typically the slowest of the four day annual event as most teams are just starting to arrive and begin discussions. The rest of the week should continue to produce its fair share of rumors with some sure to raise eyebrows.

Stay tuned to AmateurGm.com this week for more on the major happenings from Indianapolis as I plan to recap each day’s trades, rumors, and signings.

Milton Bradley, rightfielder for the Chicago Cubs, was the National League LVP.  Other names mentioned for the NL LVP included Emilio Bonifacio, Florida Marlins; Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves/New York Mets; Jason Kendall, Milwaukee Brewers; Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers; Edgar Renteria, San Francisco Giants; and Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs.

Posnanski’s analysis was based mostly on the players production in relation to their salary, which is the main reason Bradley and Wells took home the prize. Both players are perfect examples of what baseball insiders and prognosticators view as “unmovable contracts.” In recent years, many teams were trying to adopt the “Yankees” approach by buying a World Series’ contender. However, some teams such as the Cubs and Blue Jays gave big money to players like Soriano, Bradley, and Wells and are now wishing they could find a trade market for these players.

One obvious omission is Barry Zito (LHP) of the San Francisco Giants. Last year, Zito posted 10 wins and 13 losses, along with an ERA of 4.03. While not terrible numbers, is that really the production the Giants were looking to get for 18.5 million? What do you think of Posnanski’s analysis? Is there anyone else that should be included in this list?

Javier Vazquez went from being a batting practice pitcher for the White Sox (12-16 with a 4.67 ERA) to an ace with the Atlanta Braves this past season (15-10 with a 2.87 ERA).  John Smoltz also was roughed up horribly with the Boston Red Sox only to put up decent numbers with the Cardinals.  Raul Ibanez’s power number spiked when he moved from Seattle to Philadelphia this past season.

Some may say that these examples are isolated incidents, represent to small of a sample size, and are attributed to variables such as larger home fields.  But, these “isolated incidents” are definitely a growing concern to GMs in the majors.  Alan Schwarz of the New York Times quotes White Sox GM Kenny Williams as saying “A guy going from the American League to the National League, no disrespect, but…”   This type of concern isn’t anything new to the game either.  In the 1980′s many believed that lefties who switched to the NL would see a big improvement in their numbers.  A prime example is Danny Jackson who went from the Kansas City Royals to the Cincinnati Reds and promptly won 23 games!  Granted Williams can’t think that every player is this way or he would never have invested in trading for Jake Peavy this off season–but does he have a point?

1. AL has won 13 straight All-Star Games
2. AL has won 8 of the last 12 World Series
3. AL has won .566 of interleague games since 2005

The DH does play a role in this equation but there is more to it then just the DH.  Is the big money thrown around by the Yankees and Red Sox pulling all the talent toward the AL side?  Yes, the domination between leagues has switched back and forth over the years.  The NL outplayed the AL during the 70′s when the Big Red Machine was rolling, but now the shoe is firmly on the other foot.

I think Mike Arbuckle, a senior adviser for the Royals puts it succinctly, “It still comes down to the individual player’s skills, but you have to take a look at it, with the overall numbers out there, you have to weigh that.”  In a recent article by Dave Cameron of fangraphs.com, he provides insight into how GMs can statistically view league differences.  In a comparison between the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) ratings, used to measure a player’s total value, of last year’s premier free agent Mark Teixeira and this year’s golden boy Matt Holliday, Cameron explains that you should really factor +.25 to +.5 wins per season if a player switches from the AL to the NL.

When it comes down to it, is it worth giving up the farm or shelling out mega bucks for that “superstar” from the NL if he is only going to put up mediocre numbers in the AL?  Granted the NL is the “senior circuit” but you don’t want to get a player who plays like one.

Every year there is at least one MLB award winner that is questioned and heavily debated upon, such as the Chicago White Sox’s Gordon Beckham finishing 5^th in this year’s AL Rookie of the Year voting.  However, I feel the BBWAA voters got it right in picking Greinke for this award. The Cy Young is awarded to the most dominant pitcher in his league and Greinke was simply overpowering with his incredible 242:51 K/BB ratio, league-leading ERA, and 16 wins. Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports’ Circling the Bases explains the significance of Greinke being on a poor team that provided little run support, ultimately costing Greinke 20 plus wins.  Mike Axisa of mlbtraderumors.com also points out that Greinke posted the highest WAR, 9.4, of any player in the major leagues.

Joe Posnanski of SI.com did an excellent job of highlighting Zack Greinke’s rise earlier this year.  It truly is remarkable how far Greinke has come and I am sure today he couldn’t be happier.