The Minnesota Twins look to be a contender for Lee’s services. According to Jeff Fletcher of AOL Fanhouse the Twins have offered Aaron Hicks and Wilson Ramos two of their top prospects for Lee. Also in the running for Lee’s services are Mets, Reds, Dodgers and Phillies. The Reds are rumored to be offering power hitting first base prospect Yonder Alonso but consensus seems to be that it will take more then just Alonso to land Lee.

B.J. Upton has also been rumored to be a possible piece in a package for Lee as well. Upton has issues in the hustle department this year and his batting average is less then stellar. Frankly I don’t see this as a good option for the Mariners since they already have Gutierrez and Suzuki both of which are very similar players to Upton if not better.

There are other pitchers who could help and would cost less in a trade, such as Chicago Cubs left-hander Ted Lilly and Houston’s Roy Oswalt, but more in cash.

Lilly is making $13 million this season but likely will be a Type A free agent when his contract is up at the end of the season. Oswalt is making $15 million this season and is owed $16 million next year, with a $12 million club option in 2012.

Oswalt is expensive, but considering the cost of signing Lee as a free agent after the season, he could be a bargain for the next few years. He is only one year older the Lee and he is definitely wanting to get away from the struggling Astros to play for a contender.

1. Evan Longoria (24) – 60 HR and 198 RBI in first 2 seasons. Off to a great start in 2010 and should add an MVP to his collection soon.

2. Justin Upton (22) – 20 HR-20 SB guy last year. Arguably the best athlete in baseball who should reach 30 HR-30 SB in the near future.

3. Pablo Sandoval (23) – .300 hitter with 25-30 HR and 90-100 RBI ability. “Kung Fu Panda” is already a fan favorite and feared hitter.

4. Jason Heyward (20) – 2010 No. 1 prospect has gotten off to a .302, 3 HR, 15 RBI start in 43 big league at-bats at the age of 20. Looks to be the leader of the newest crop of talent from the minor leagues.

5. Matt Wieters (23) – The most-hyped prospect of 2009 has uncanny power and hitting ability from both sides of the plate. Look for Wieters to make huge strides this season and become one of the premier catchers in the near future.

6. Billy Butler (24) – .301 AVG, 21 HR, and 93 RBI in first full season. Set to become a premier slugger with 30 HR-100 RBI not out of the question.

7. Carlos Gonzalez (24) – 5-tool talent that started to showcase those tools last season. Should be a mainstay in the Rockies outfield and top of the order for years to come.

8. Adam Jones (24) – One of the best athletes on this list. Great arm and 20 HR-20 SB talent.

9. Andrew McCutchen (23) – Another 5-tool talent from the leadoff spot. Outstanding speed and developing power. Set to become premier leadoff hitter in the majors.

10. Gordon Beckham (23) – Future All-Star 2B. Made the leap from Double-A to the majors last season and displayed a good hitting prowess. The future of the White Sox.

11. Jay Bruce (23) – Has struggled to hit consistently at the big league level. The former No. 1 overall prospect has arguably the most upside of any hitter on this list and has the potential to become a big run-producer.

12. Delmon Young (24) – Like Bruce, has failed to hit consistently enough to live up to his enormous potential. Still a great talent with good upside who has hit a solid .289 for his career. Entering a make or break year in the big leagues.

13. Chris Coghlan (24) – 2009 NL Rookie of the Year is a scrappy top of the order hitter. Shows good plate discipline and should hit for a high average in his career.

14. Colby Rasmus (23) – Has above-average power and speed from the left side who hit 16 HR for the Cardinals in his rookie campaign last season. Solid defender who should be a premier center fielder within the next few years.

15. Elvis Andrus (21) – Biggest assets are his speed and defense. A future Gold Glover who projects as a leadoff hitter and threat on the basepaths.

16. Cameron Maybin (23) – One of the most talented players on this list. Currently hitting near the top of the Marlins lineup with his great speed, but has the ability to become a middle of the order hitter as he continues to grow into his frame. Looking to put it together in his first full season this year.

17. Dexter Fowler (24) – Had an up and down season at the plate last season with the Rockies as he needs to hit for a higher average. An elite defender and base-stealer (27 SB in ’09) who should be a top of the order threat with Gonzalez in the Rockies outfield.

18. Kyle Blanks (23) – After hitting 10 HR in only 148 AB last season for the Padres, the 6-6/285 lb big man projects as a huge power threat in the near future. Despite his large frame, reminiscent of the “Big Hurt” Frank Thomas, he is athletic enough to play in the outfield, though his natural position is at first base.

19. Austin Jackson (23) – The newest Tiger has gotten off to a solid start (.333 AVG, 5 RBI, 2 SB from the leadoff spot) in his first big league season. Jackson ironically projects similarly to the man he was traded for in Curtis Granderson. Look for him to rise up this list next season.

20. Alcides Escobar (23) – In his first season as the Brewers everyday shortstop. A potential game-changer with both his glove and speed.  Hit .304 in 125 AB with the Brewers last year.

21. Ike Davis (23) – The Mets top prospect made his major league debut last night against the Cubs and didn’t disappoint by going 2 for 4 with an RBI. The 18th overall selection in the 2008 draft hit 20 HR in the minors last year along with a .298 AVG. He projects as a middle of the order threat from the left side of the plate.

22. Ian Desmond (24) – The former 3rd round pick of the Nationals in 2004 is finally starting to put it together. Desmond is a late-bloomer who is starting to hit for contact consistently. He earned the starting nod at short over Cristian Guzman and looks to be the Nationals shortstop of the future.

23. Tyler Colvin (24) – After hitting .468 with 2 HR and 18 RBI in 25 Spring Training games this year, Colvin earned a spot on the Cubs 25 man roster. Currently a part of a 5 man outfield rotation in Chicago, Colvin doesn’t project to provide off the chart numbers this year. However, the former first round pick can swing the bat and also provides above average speed. Look for his name in the coming years.

24. Everth Cabrera (23) – A Rule 5 pick of the Padres last season, Cabrera took the shortstop position as his own by displaying great work with the glove and providing 25 SB in 103 games. Cabrera must hit for a higher average to become an even bigger threat on the basepaths.

25. Asdrubal Cabrera (24) – Has proven to be a solid major league infielder as his bat as caught up to his great defense. In 2009, he hit .308 and provided 68 RBI and 17 SB for the Indians. While he might not reach star status, he should have a long and productive big league career.

Honorable Mention: Julio Borbon (24), Sean Rodriguez (24), Chris Davis (24), Reid Brignac (24)

This contract is a no-brainer for the Minnesota Twins. Mauer is an amazing talent who plays at a specialty position. The only concern I would voice is Mauer’s injury history. He has had surgery on his knee back in 2004 and a back injury that kept him from playing the entire month of April last season. If the Twins manage Mauer and DH him to keep him healthy I see no reason why this won’t be a good deal for them. Assuming this does not hamper them from making other moves and retaining players in the future.

Victor Martinez must be licking his chops now as he will be looking for an extension from the Boston Red Sox soon. Mauer obviously has set the bar but Martinez knows his numbers are some what comparable.  We shall see what the happens from here.

• Brandon Wood (3B) Los Angeles Angels – The former first round pick of the Angels in 2003, is finally ready to receive regular playing time in the majors as the Angels are counting on Wood to be their everyday third basemen in 2010.  Since hitting 43 HR in the minors in 2005 and being awarded the MiLB.com’s Offensive Player of the Year Award that same season, Wood has been one of the top prospects in not only the Angels system, but in all of baseball. Despite proving he can hit in the minor leagues (39 HR per 162 Triple-A games), Wood has failed to translate those numbers in his 224 MLB at-bats over the past three seasons. However, Wood is still only 25 years old and has yet to receive regular at-bats at the big league level. Now with Chone Figgins departure to Seattle, Wood has the chance to man the hot corner for the Angels for many years. The Angels patience in Wood is similar to their patience with 1B Kendry Morales, who broke out last season after receiving his first chance at everyday playing time. Keeper league fantasy owners should especially keep an eye on Wood as he could be a steal in the late rounds with his great HR potential.

CHONE Projection: .246 AVG, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 58 Runs, .762 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .248 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 69 Runs, .764 OPS

• Brian Matusz (LHP) Baltimore Orioles – The No. 4 overall pick of the 2008 draft has gone into the 2010 season as the No. 5 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com. Matusz already made it to the big leagues in 2009 as he struggled in his first 3 starts before settling in his last 5 starts to finish with a 5-2 record along with a respectable 4.63 ERA in 44.2 IP. Matusz has drawn comparisons to former AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and fellow lefty Cole Hamels and is expected to break Orioles camp as a member of their starting rotation. Matusz sports a fastball that reaches 94 MPH and has both a slider and curveball with great movement. While the projections for this season for the 23 year old lefty aren’t too kind, Matusz has already got a taste of the big leagues and has the element of surprise as he is expected to be the future ace of the Orioles staff. If nothing else, Matusz deserves a look as a late round flier in mixed leagues.

CHONE Projection: 5-6, 4.59 ERA, 100 IP, 80 K (7.20 K/9), 1.41 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 8-12, 4.48 ERA, 151 IP, 138 K (8.23 K/9), 1.45 WHIP

• Clay Buchholz (RHP) Boston Red Sox – After making a name for himself in Boston after throwing a no-hitter in 2007, Buchholz has struggled to catch on as a consistent pitcher in the major leagues. In his minor league career, Buchholz has sported 2.42 career ERA and has top-of-the-rotation stuff. Buchholz has found his name in trade rumors the past few seasons as the Red Sox have been unable to find a spot for him in their rotation and realize the value he represents to other teams. Buchholz is expected to finally get his chance to stick in the Red Sox rotation this season and impressed last September by going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 6 starts. The time is now for Buchholz in Boston and he will be a popular sleeper candidate for fantasy owners this season. Look for him to post double-digit wins with the Red Sox defense behind him and also provide a solid ERA.

Bill James Projection: 10-8, 3.91 ERA, 161 IP, 155 K (8.66 K/9), 1.32 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 10-9, 3.96 ERA, 165 IP, 156 K (8.51 K/9), 1.29 WHIP

• Austin Jackson (OF) Detroit Tigers – The key player coming back to the Tigers in the off season trade of Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, finds himself tentatively penciled in as the starting center fielder in Detroit this season. The 23 year-old CF comes to Detroit as a highly-touted prospect and has ironically drawn comparisons to the man he was traded for in Granderson. While his power hasn’t quite developed yet, Jackson has hit for a solid AVG and has shown an ability to steal some bases as he has averaged 28 SB in 4 seasons in the minors. With the acquisition of Johnny Damon, Jackson will no longer be expected to bat leadoff in the Tigers lineup and should be much more comfortable batting lower in the lineup, most likely in the 9 hole. While fantasy owners shoudn’t expect a power boost from Jackson this season, he could be a sleeper option for runs and SB. Keeper league owners especially should keep an eye on Jackson’s progress this spring.

Bill James Projection: .294 AVG, 4 HR, 37 RBI, 40 Runs, 14 SB, .767 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .271 AVG, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 55 Runs, 15 SB, .741 OPS

• Francisco Liriano (LHP) Minnesota Twins – Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006 with a 12-3 record along with a 2.16 ERA. After the 2006 season, Liriano was considered one of the bright young pitching stars in the league and was thought to be a bona-fide ace in the American League for years to come. However, Liriano developed arm problems that eventually led to Tommy John surgery in the off season of 2006. Since then Liriano hasn’t been the same pitcher and is still looking to find the success he had in his rookie season. Last season, in particular, was especially unkind to Liriano as he battled control issues and finished with an awful 5.80 ERA. This off season, Liriano went to the Dominican Winter League and was impressive in 7 starts posting a 3-1 record to go along with 0.49 ERA and 47:5 K/BB ratio. This spring, the Twins have been encouraged with Liriano’s progress and his first spring start was a success as he tossed 2 scoreless frames and had good velocity on his pitches. Liriano is in competition for the 5th spot in Twins rotation and should win the job with a successful spring. While Liriano most likely will never be the pitcher he was in his rookie season, he still has plenty of upside and will be another year removed from Tommy John surgery. Fantasy owners could find a sleeper in Liriano this season as he has the ability to produce high strikeout totals and if healthy can produce double digit wins behind a strong Twins offense.

Bill James Projection: 8-6, 3.67 ERA, 125 IP, 128 K (9.22 K/9), 1.30 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 8-7, 3.80 ERA, 117 IP, 110 K (8.46 K/9), 1.33 WHIP

• Rajai Davis (OF) Oakland Athletics – Rajai Davis was a solid AL-only option for SB last season, but he didn’t receive enough playing time to be a quality mixed league option for fantasy owners. However, Davis received regular playing time in the second half of last season and hit .325 with 30 SB and 46 runs. Davis second half stats make him a viable sleeper in mixed leagues this year as he should find regular playing time in Oakland this season, despite playing in a crowded outfield. He should provide good run totals and has the ability to steal 50+ bases with a full season of at-bats. Davis is definately an intriguing late round pickup for fantasy owners craving for steals.

Bill James Projection: .284 AVG, 4 HR, 44 RBI, 74 Runs, 50 SB, .718 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .280 AVG, 4 HR, 52 RBI, 79 Runs, 46 SB, .708 OPS

• David Price (LHP) Tampa Bay Rays – The No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft excited fantasy owners going into 2009 as he was impressive in the Rays 2008 postseason run to the World Series. However, Price struggled last year with his command and didn’t show progress until August and September. Despite displaying inconsistency common from young pitchers, Price hasn’t shown anything to dispute the fact that he will fail to live up to his potential. Price possesses dominating stuff and is thinking big for this season as he desires to be the ace of the Rays impressive young staff. Look for Price to improve on his command and become a more consistent pitcher this season. While he might not be considered a true sleeper due to his draft status and potential, fantasy owners could get Price at a very reasonable price this year as some fantasy owners will be skeptical of Price progress this season.

Bill James Projection: 10-10, 4.30 ERA, 180 IP, 157 K (7.85 K/9), 1.36 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 11-9, 4.18 ERA, 184 IP, 153 K (7.48 K/9), 1.33 WHIP

• Julio Borbon (OF) Texas Rangers – Borbon is a popular sleeper pick in the AL this year as he, like Rajai Davis, should be a great source for runs and SB this season. After batting .310 in the minors last season, Borbon built off that success by hitting .312 in 157 AB with the big league club. However, Borbon’s greatest attribute is his speed and 19 SB during his brief tenure with the Rangers last season proves he has the ability to be a big threat on the basepaths. Borbon is penciled in as both the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the Rangers and should provide a .300 AVG, 40+ steals, and plenty of runs in a stacked Rangers lineup. Borbon probably won’t last as long as some of the names on this list as he has received plenty of attention from fantasy experts this off season excited by his potential.

Bill James Projection: .308 AVG, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 85 Runs, 42 SB, .762 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .293 AVG, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 84 Runs, 38 SB, .755 OPS

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]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-preview-al-sleeper-candidates/feed 0 http://www.amateurgm.com/mlb-gms-ranking-for-2010 http://www.amateurgm.com/mlb-gms-ranking-for-2010#comments Fri, 05 Mar 2010 15:49:28 +0000 Andrew Swanson http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=1175 Tim Marchman of Sports Illustrated recently ranks all 30 Major League General Managers. So we must ask ourselves how do you measure a GM’s success? Is it dollars spent per win? Playoff appearances? Do you take into account the minor league system and player development? The Twins may not be a power house but they have been a very successful team.

Ultimately the goal of every team is to win the World Series. However, I am not convinced that this is a sign of a good GM. Guys like Theo Epstein of the Boston Red Sox and Brian Cashman of the New York Yankees, who get a bunch of blank checks every season seem to have an advantage over the little guys. Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics who is one of the most hyped GM’s in the game and is a poster boy for “spending money wisely” has never won a pennant in his 12 years at the helm in Oakland.  Marchman argues that Andrew Friedman of the Tampa Bay Ray’s is the best GM based on  dollars per win and his signing of Evan Longoria to a very club friendly contract. So who do you consider to be the best GM in baseball?

Tim Marchman’s GM Rankings going into the 2010 season:

1. Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Theo Epstein, Boston Red Sox
3. Brian Cashman, New York Yankees
4. Larry Beinfest, Florida Marlins
5. Jack Zduriencik, Seattle Mariners
6. Doug Melvin, Milwaukee Brewers
7. Dan O’Dowd, Colorado Rockies
8. Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers
9. Kenny Williams, Chicago White Sox
10. Billy Beane, Oakland A’s
11. Josh Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Andy MacPhail, Baltimore Orioles
13. Dave Dombrowski, Detroit Tigers
14. Walt Jocketty, Cincinnati Reds
15. Tony Reagins, Los Angeles Angels
16. Jim Hendry, Chicago Cubs
17. Frank Wren, Atlanta Braves
18. John Mozeliak, St. Louis Cardinals
19. Ruben Amaro Jr., Philadelphia Phillies
20. Neal Huntington, Pittsburgh Pirates
21. Bill Smith, Minnesota Twins
22. Mark Shapiro, Cleveland Indians
23. Mike Rizzo, Washington Nationals
24. Alex Anthopolous, Toronto Blue Jays
25. Jed Hoyer, San Diego Padres
26. Omar Minaya, New York Mets
27. Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers
28. Brian Sabean, San Francisco Giants
29. Ed Wade, Houston Astros
30. Dayton Moore, Kansas City Royals

Minnesota Twins: The Twinkees are always competitive. They have a very regimented process to move their minor leaguers up to the majors, requiring them to complete specific tasks and to do them consistently. Their owner, James Pohlad, is actually the second richest owner in the majors with a net worth of $3.6 billion. It will also be interesting to see how the staff deals with having to pitch outside in early spring and late fall now that they don’t have the comforts of the Metrodome. This new stadium could save them a lot of hits that use to skip through the infield on the AstroTurf.  The Twins rotation has a potential price tag of $12.6 dollars for 2010.

• Scott Baker: Baker doesn’t have overpowering stuff but is extremely accurate. At the beginning of the ’09 season he struggled but he turned things around to compile his best overall season yet. He is 28 years old and entering the prime of his career. He threw for a 4.37 ERA, 162 K’s, 200 IP and 48 walks. He will earn $3 million in 2010.
• Kevin Slowey: Slowey is another solid middle of the rotation guy that the Twins seem to put out on the field every year. He lost some time due to wrist surgery last season but is expected to be fully healthy to start the year. He posted a 4.86 ERA, 75 K’s, 90.2 IP and 15 walks last year. He will earn near near the minimum in 2010.
• Carl Pavano: Pavano has solid stuff and he made a killing at the Yankees expense in 2005. He then proceeded to rarely pitch the next three seasons while raking in the dough. His numbers have never been stellar but there is a ton of potential there. He threw for a 5.10 ERA, 147 K’s, 199.1 IP and 39 BB. He will make $7 million this season.
• Nick Blackburn: Blackburn is a solid back of the rotation starter. He will eat innings for you and will keep you in the game. He isn’t flashy and will never have good strikeout numbers. He pitched for a 4.03 ERA, 98 K’s, 205.2 IP and 41 walks. He will earn near the minimum.
• Brian Duensing: Duensing will be in competition for the 5th starter position this season in spring training. He posted good numbers over the 9 games he started last year. He threw for a 3.64 ERA, 53 K’s, 84 IP and 31 walks. He will earn the minimum this season.
• Francisco Liriano: Liriano has been a source of many headaches in the Twin Cities over the past few seasons. He burst on to the scene in 2006 with Cy Young numbers only to have injury issues and then control problems in subsequent seasons. He needs to prove to Ron Gardenhire that he can consistently throw strikes to earn the fifth starter position this year. He will make $1.6 million in 2010.

Detroit Tigers: I personally believe the Tigers are in a transition phase this season. They seem to be spending money this year to compete but a lot of other money and dead weight will be coming off the books this fall. The Tigers do have a lot of young talent going for them which is a definite plus. Injuries as always will be a key factor with Tigers and staying competitive in 2010. The Tigers have a potential rotation cost of anywhere between $20.75 million to $41.75 million depending on who earns spots at the back end of the rotation. I think they will end up being closer to the $20 million mark then $40 million.

• Justin Verlander: The Tigers just resigned Verlander to a 5-year $80 million deal. He is one of the best and brightest pitchers around. He will be the anchor of the Tigers staff for years to come. He threw for a 3.45 ERA, 269 K’s, 240 IP and 63 BB. He will earn $6.75 million in 2010.
• Rick Porcello: Porcello turn in a great year last season and made a very strong push for rookie of the year. He didn’t display much strike out potential but he has plenty of room to grow in the future. At the young age of 21 the Tigers need to make sure they don’t over work this promising arm. He threw for a 3.96 ERA, 89 K’s, 170.2 IP and 52 BB. He will earn near the minimum.
• Max Scherzer: Scherzer is another very talented young arm in the Tigers’ rotation. He came over in a trade this offseason so we will have to see how he adjusts to the American League. His pitching motion can make you nervous at the potential for injury but if he stays healthy he has the potential to be a star in the future. He threw for a 4.12 ERA, 174 K’s, 170.1 IP and 63 BB. He will earn near the minimum.
• Jeremy Bonderman: Bonderman has provided the Tigers’ faithful with a lot of disappointment. He has good stuff but it has never seemed to translate into really good major league success. He has battled a lot of injuries over this career and has yet to post an ERA under 4.08. He will need to prove himself worthy this year as his contract is expiring at the end of the season. He missed a majority of the 2009 season and threw for a 8.71 ERA, 5 K’s, 10.1 IP and 8 walks. He will make $12.5 million in 2010.
• Armando Galarraga: After a strong rookie season Galarraga had himself a sophomore slump last season. He deserves the benefit of the doubt and will most likely contend for a rotation spot after losing his spot at the end of the 2009 season. He threw for a 5.64 ERA, 95 K’s, 143.2 IP and 67 walks. He will earn near the minimum.
• Nate Robertson: Robertson is another contract that the Tigers will be glad to take off the books at the end of the season. He showed potential and was a great innings eater but has since been competing for the 5th spot in the rotation for the past 2 years. He posted a 5.44 ERA, 35 K’s, 49.2 IP, 28 walks and only started 6 games. He makes $10 million in 2010.
• Dontrelle Willis: Uh… yeah well most of you know the disaster Willis has been for the Tigers. He can not seem to throw a strike to save his life. I doubt he will earn the 5th starter spot but he will be in consideration during spring training. In 7 starts he threw for a 7.49 ERA, 17 K’s, 33.2 IP and 28 BB. He will make $12 million in 2010.

Chicago White Sox: The White Sox made an effort to change organizational direction this season. They shifted from an offensive-based team to a more well rounded defense and speed-based team. While the majority of their starters are the same, the key addition of Jake Peavy has set the White Sox up with a bonafide ace which they seemed to be lacking. Kenny Williams has had great success in building their rotation threw trading away prospects and gaining quality players in return. On paper they seem to be the best and most well rounded rotation in the division. However are they being thrifty enough to win the best rotation in the AL Central? They are currently shelling out $37.2 million for their hurlers in 2010.

• Mark Buehrle: There are not many sure things when it comes to baseball but Buehrle is a close as it gets. He is a finesse pitcher through and through. He has thrown over 200 innings in each of his 9 seasons as a full time starter. Last season he threw for a 3.84 ERA, 105 K’s, 213.1 IP and 45 BB. He will earn $14 million in 2010.
• Jake Peavy: Peavy is top tier starter no matter what league he is pitching in. He has electric stuff and would be the ace on anyone’s staff. He does have an injury history but nothing too serious so far. Last season he threw for a 3.45 ERA, 110 K’s, 101.2 and 34 walks. He earns $15 million in 2010.
• Gavin Floyd: After struggling with control problems for a long time Floyd righted the ship in the 2008 season with the White Sox and seem to continue this trend last season. He isn’t the ace people originally thought he would be when first drafted but he is a strong starter and is a great option to have in the middle to back of your rotation. He threw for a 4.06 ERA, 163 K’s, 193 IP and 59 BB. He earns $2.75 million.
• John Danks: Danks is a solid middle of the rotation option. While he isn’t a flame thrower he gets his fair share of strike outs. He is young and looks to improve on his numbers from last season. He pitched for a 3.77 ERA, 149 K’s, 200.1 IP, 73 walks. He will earn $3.45 million in 2010.
• Freddy Garcia: Garcia is a big question mark. He performed well at the end of last season but has suffered from a shoulder injury for the past two years. He will be competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. He threw for a 4.34 ERA, 37 K’s, 56 IP and 12 walks. He will make up to $2 million next season if he hits all his performance bonuses.
• Daniel Hudson: Hudson rocketed up through the White Sox minor league system last season pitching at every single level within the organization. He also had success at every single level. He will give Freddy Garcia some stiff competition in spring training for the 5th starter spot. Hudson threw for a 3.38 ERA, 14 K’s, 18.2 IP and 9 walks. He will make the minimum.

Kansas City Royals: The Royals have been in the cellar of the AL Central for quite a while. However, there is a bright future ahead of them if all their stars play to their potential and if they can hold on to them for a decent amount of time before their contracts become too expensive for them to sustain. The rotation is very promising and is finally able to keep the Royals semi competitive with their more talented competitors. The two biggest questions they have are how effective will the back end of their rotation be and can Gil Meche return to form? They are spending $25.11 million for their starters in 2010.

• Zack Greinke: Greinke is arguably the best pitcher in the AL Central. He won the AL Cy Young award last season by posting a 2.16 ERA, 242 K’s, 229.1 IP and 51 walks. He will be the force to contend with in KC for years to come and the Royals fans are excited. He will earn $7.25 million in 2010.
• Gil Meche: Meche was a surprise signing a few years ago by the Royals coming over from the Mariners and he has anchored their rotation well. Last season his numbers slipped but he is still the solid number 2 in their rotation. He threw for a 5.09 ERA 95 K’s, 129 IP and 58 walks. He will earn $12 million in 2010.
• Luke Hochevar: Hochevar is the definition of diamond in the rough. He has great potential as the top pick in the 2008 draft and looks to improve upon his performance last season. It was feast or famine last season for Hochevar, who permitted at least six earned runs in nine starts and also held the opposition to two earned runs or fewer in eight outings. He threw for a 6.55 ERA, 106 K’s, 143 IP and 46 walks. He makes $1.76 million in 2010.
• Kyle Davies: Davies saved his best for last in 2009, going 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA over his final four starts of the campaign. The problem is he also enjoyed a strong finish to ’08 by going 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA after the start of September, and he hasn’t been able to capture that form in the other five months of the season. He threw for a 5.27 ERA, 86 K’s, 123 IP and 66 BB. He earns $1.8 million.
• Brian Bannister: Bannister is a decent option at the end of the Royals rotation. He doesn’t have great stuff but what he does have he makes good use of. He kept the Royals in games when he pitched and has a tendency to get on a roll. He posted a 4.73 ERA, 98 K’s, 154 IP and 50 walks. He earns $2.3 million in 2010.
• Robinson Tejeda: Tejeda worked the majority of last season out of the bullpen but was given the chance to start in September and never looked back going 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 9.09 K/9 ratio in six outings. He will probably be given a long look in spring training but we are not sure how the Royals plan on utilizing him. He threw for 3.54 ERA, 87 K’s, 73.2 IP and 50 BB. He earns $950 thousand in 2010.

Cleveland Indians: The Indians look to be in a rough spot coming into the 2010 season. There doesn’t seem to be any super strong pitchers in their rotation and there are a ton of question marks toward the back end. They traded away several of their aces in Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia over last few seasons and they will be looking to see if anyone can step up into that open role. Manny Acta will have his work cut out for him this spring training as he tries to piece together a lot of raw young pitchers into a working, viable rotation. They are paying $17.4 million for their starting pitchers in 2010.

• Jake Westbrook: Westbrook last pitched for the Indians in June of 2008 before having Tommy John surgery. He will be the defacto ace of the staff in 2009. In his last full season (2007) he posted a 4.32 ERA, 93 K’s, 152 IP and 55 walks. He will make $11 million in 2010.
• Fausto Carmona: Carmona is displayed his potential in 2007 winning 19 games but he imploded and has not been able to find that success again so far. He has struggled mightily with his control. He is young and still has time to right the ship but he can’t be counted on to be a steady contributor. He threw for a 6.32 ERA, 79 K’s, 125.1 IP and 70 walks. He will make $4.9 million.
• Justin Masterson: Masterson has spent the majority of his career in the bullpen. He is predominately a two pitch pitcher which could limit his effectiveness in the future but he has good velocity and good bite on his slider. He will look to solidify a position in the rotation this year. He threw for a 4.52 era, 119 K’s, 129.1 IP and 60 walks. He will earn near the minimum.
• David Huff: Huff struggled last season but left a positive impression at the end going 4-1 over his last 5 starts. He will look to improve on his rookie performance and has had a good track record at every level he has played. Huff threw for a 5.61 ERA, 65 K’s, 128.1 IP and 41 BB. He earns the minimum.
• Aaron Laffey: Laffey is a finesse pitcher who tops out around 87 mph on his fastball. He has proven that he can get guys out but needs to be very consistent. He is young like most of his fellow starters and looks to carve a niche for himself. He threw for 4.44 ERA, 59 K’s, 121.2 IP and 57 walks. He will earn the minimum.
• Jeremy Sowers: Sowers is also a soft tosser who doesn’t seem to be able to get outs as consistently as his teammate Laffey. He threw for 5.25 ERA, 51 K’s, 123.1 IP and 52 walks. He earns near the minimum.
• Carlos Carrasco: Carrasco was the key player in the Cliff Lee deal from the Phillies. He is armed with a lively mid-90s fastball, a changeup and a curve, the key for him has been consistency, and he’s generally taken a little time to adapt to each level. He threw for a 8.87 ERA, 11 K’s, 22.1 IP and 11 BB. He will earn the minimum.

There is a wide range of talent being offered in the starting rotations for the AL Central. The Chicago White Sox have the best overall talent on their roster and seem to have the most solidified rotation coming into spring training. However, they have the highest price tag associated with their talent. That is why I have to give my vote to the Twins. They may not have the best talent on their team, but for what they are paying them, they have the most potential and the best cost efficiency.

Jeff Walter – In fantasy baseball you need power numbers out of your first base position, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a better power hitter in baseball today than Ryan Howard. Howard has been the most consistent power hitter since his first full season in 2006. Remarkably he has had at least 45 home runs and 136 RBIs in each of his first four full seasons (say that five times fast!). Over that same time period Howard has produced a total of 198 home runs and 572 RBI. Compare that to the other top first basemen: Justin Morneau- 118/465… Prince Fielder- 158/443… and even Albert Pujols- 165/491.In fact during the 2009 season Howard became the fastest player in baseball history to reach 200 home runs. Also consider career slugging percentage. Howard- .586… Morneau- .501… Fielder- .550… Pujols- .628. Ok, so Pujols wins the slugging percentage battle, part of the reason he’ll go number one in most drafts. Lastly, when ranking your first basemen for fantasy purposes, remember that Howard is part of one of the top three offenses in baseball. Yet one more reason why Howard should be taken ahead of Morneau and Fielder.

Ryan Oleniczak – After Albert Pujols, you can’t go wrong taking Prince Fielder as your first basemen of choice for your fantasy team. Last year, Fielder was one of only three players, MVP’s Pujols and Joe Mauer the others, with an OPS over 1.000 (1.014).Fielder also finished second among first basemen in total bases with 1,008. Fielder has proven to fantasy owners that he is a mark of durability over the past three seasons as he has not played in less than 157 games during that stretch. Last season, Fielder’s numbers compared favorably, if not better than Howard’s, as he finished with 46 HR (Howard – 43), 141 RBI (Howard – 141), 103 Runs (Howard – 105), and a .299 AVG (Howard – .279). If you think Fielder’s numbers were an aberration, look to his 3 year averages of 43 HR, 120 RBI, 99 Runs, and a .288 AVG for guidance. Considering his power and average, Fielder is a step above Howard as the No. 2 fantasy option at first base this season for fantasy owners.

Jason Oleniczak – I am a huge Justin Morneau fan. He is a good citizen and a model of consistency. That being said, it is a tough to justify Morneau as a better fantasy option than Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder. In fact, I won’t try to. He is generally not. What I would say is that if you have a choice between the three of these players and your current roster has a lot of high strikeout players then you might want to go with Morneau. His three-year average for strikeouts is 87 compared to Fielder’s 131 and Howard’s brutal 193. Also, if your league has a defensive category that would weigh in Morneau’s favor as his three-year error average is 4 compared to 13 for Fielder and 15 for Howard. To sum up, unless your fantasy league has a “least time spent at the Old Country Buffet” category, you will not take Morneau over Fielder and Howard.

On deck is Second Base and Shortstop is in the hole. So stay tuned.

I found this post the other day as I was browsing through the 2009 World Series stories at MLB.com.  It instantly got me thinking, do MLB general managers really buy teams or is this some ticked off Pirates fan?  Could this possibly be a disgruntled New York Mets fan that isn’t happy because his team didn’t buy the “right” players?  Can teams and championships simply be bought by just shelling out enough money, with a nice trophy as a reward?

I decided I’d get to the bottom of the payroll vs. playoff matter. I pieced together some data from the USA Today regarding the correlation between payroll and playoff teams.  I compiled a list of playoff teams from the past decade and then proceeded to find each playoff team’s total payroll and payroll rank in that given year.

Clearly the top spenders will be the teams in the playoffs, right? It only makes sense because they have a larger talent pool to pull from. There isn’t anyone or anything that is off limits. If you need a big starting pitcher or a guy that can mash in the middle of your lineup, you can just go pick up an over-priced free agent. Isn’t that why we have a class system in high school sports, so the playing field can be level? Everyone knows that if they didn’t have a class system, a small under-populated team and school without a talent pool would never have a chance against the mega-schools. Sure there are once-in-a-century stories like Hoosiers and the Bad News Bears, but that only happens in the movies. This is not Hollywood. Gene Hackman isn’t going to barge through the door and give a motivational speech to elevate the team and pull off the impossible. It just doesn’t happen. We live in a Jerry Maguire world, “Show me the money!”

Major League Baseball is different than every other professional sport.  The way the game is played and the model of consistency that must be established for success is different than any other sport.  Baseball has a grueling schedule and the game takes a toll on one’s body, but in a different way than football or basketball.  The roster has different lengths and different requirements in different months.  The playoff format has eight teams, not 12 or 16.  In baseball numerous players have been traded after the no-trade deadline, which is something you don’t see in football.  Baseball has an intricate network of minor league teams.  The player draft has over 40 rounds and once a year they even draft players that are currently on other teams (Rule 5 Draft). However, arguably the biggest difference is that there is no salary cap.  Even though they impose a luxury tax, teams such as the Yankees are not afraid to pay it because they have all the resources they need to succeed and no salary cap to stop them.

In 2000, the New York Yankees played the New York Mets in the first “Subway Series” since 1956.  The New York Yankees won the series in five games, handedly beating their cross-town rivals. That year the Yankees had the largest payroll in the game at $92.9 million, with the Mets owning the 6th largest payroll at $79.8 million. The average payroll for a playoff team that year was a mere $61.8 million.  Ten years later, the Yankees once again took home the crown with the highest payroll at $201.4 million.  The average payroll for a playoff team that year (2009) was $109.9 million.  In simply ten years the average payroll of a playoff team nearly doubled.

Over the course of the past ten years, the average payroll rank for playoff teams has been 11, with an annual total bill of $91.6 million.  If you want to hoist the trophy, however, your average rank is 9.1 and a payroll of $102.2 million. I heard Bud Selig rave that parity was as great as it has ever been! Twenty-three different teams made the playoffs in the past decade, that’s 76.7% of teams in the league.  Does it really matter that four of those teams only made it once? At least they were there, right?  The truth is that teams have to spend money to win championships anymore, the numbers prove it.  Maybe small market teams should form a different view of success.  Maybe just getting there should be enough. Should the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins adopt that philosophy?

Well at least we have the Florida Marlins who beat the “Evil Empire” in 2003 with the 25^th ranked payroll, more than $100 million less than the Yankees. I wonder if Gene Hackman gave them a speech before Game Six?

Hudson seems to be an anomaly the past few years. He has always put up good numbers while playing good defense yet he seems to have great difficulty in finding a job. At 32 years old he is obviously not getting younger and he does play a physically demanding position. But, his numbers don’t seem to show any slide in defensive prowess. Yet last season Joe Torre benched Hudson in favor of Ronnie Belliard at the end of the season. Is there something they are telling us? Does Hudson have a poor attitude? Does he not get along with his team mates in the locker room? Why does Hudson always seem to be the red headed step child of the baseball world?  I’m stumped. It seems as though Hudson may have to repeat the process again next offseason having only signed a one year deal.

ESPN.com’s 2010 Top 10 Prospects

1. Jason Heyward (OF) Atlanta Braves (1) – The consensus overall No.1 prospect on both lists. Braves fans should be excited for the arrival of this 5 tool talent in the near future.

2. Stephen Strasburg (RHP) Washington Nationals (2) – The consensus top pitching prospect on both lists. The Nationals hope Strasburg lives up to all the hype and brings home a Cy Young Award in the future.

3. Carlos Santana (C) Cleveland Indians (11) – Santana just missed cracking the top 10 on Mayo’s list, but safely finds his name on this list. Santana is a switch-hitting catcher who has left scouts raving about his ability to change the game with both his arm and bat. He has drawn comparisons to the player he is expecting to replace in Cleveland, Victor Martinez. The Indians are expected to give Santana one more year of seasoning in the minors before making him their everyday backstop in 2011.

4. Buster Posey (C) San Francisco Giants (4) – The battle for the title of the top catching prospect in the game between Santana and Posey was won by Santana on this list. However, Posey safely finds his name at No. 4 on both lists and is looking like a potential cornerstone behind the plate for many years.

5. Mike Stanton (OF) Florida Marlins (3) – Stanton takes a little step back on this list, but finds his name in the top 5 on both lists. Many scouts are in unison of their praise of Stanton and his ability to drive in runs and hit the long ball better than anyone in the minors. Marlins fans should see him patrolling right field very soon.

6. Desmond Jennings (OF) Tampa Bay Rays (6) – Jennings anchors the 6th spot on both lists. The question in Tampa is can they make an outfield with Carl Crawford in LF, Jennings in CF, and B.J. Upton in RF happen. Crawford is a free agent after the season and is questionable to return. However unlikely the possibility of all three players in the outfield together, Rays fans can dream of such a scenario which would be the fastest and most exciting outfield in all of baseball.

7. Martin Perez (LHP) Texas Rangers (18) – The Rangers find another pitching prospect in the top 10 in Perez. The 19-year old lefty has drawn comparisons to fellow lefty Johan Santana with his size and stuff. The Rangers will be cautious with Perez as he is still extremely young. He isn’t expected to reach the majors until 2012 at the earliest, but Perez’s progress could speed up the process sooner. The Rangers organization is ecstatic about their young arms and Perez could be the best.

8. Dustin Ackley (2B) Seattle Mariners (15) – The 2nd overall pick of the 2009 draft is making the switch from CF to 2B this season. How well Ackley adjusts to the position change will determine how fast he reaches the majors. He was considered the most advanced hitter in last year’s draft as he provides a high average with a great knack for getting on base. The only knock on Ackley is that his power has yet to develop and is still a work in progress. Currently, the Mariners have him penciled him for a trip to the majors at some point in 2011, but could be be later than that due to the position change.

9. Justin Smoak (1B) Texas Rangers (9) – Another name to find his name on both lists and at the same spot as well. Smoak would be penciled into most starting lineups this season, however, the Rangers don’t have room for his services this season with Chris Davis at first and Vladimir Guerrero as the primary DH. As mentioned before, Smoak has drawn comparisons to Mark Teixeira and should be a big-time run producer in the majors.

10. Jesus Montero (C) New York Yankees (19) – Another catching prospect cracks the top 10 as the Yankees hope they have find their successor to Jorge Posada behind the plate. Montero’s defense has been questioned, but he was reported to make progress behind the plate last season. There is no question about Montero’s ability to swing the bat as he has immense power and plate discipline. The Yankees have kept Montero’s name out of trade discussions and that says a lot. The team should have no problem behind the plate after Posada departs.

It is interesting to see the different top prospects list that come out every year. You often hear the term “can’t-miss prospect” loosely in baseball, which is true sometimes. The developmental process in baseball is crucial for sustained success in the league. The Braves of the 90s and the Twins are two organizations that seemingly always have a knack for producing quality home-grown talent. The Rays are a team that I see starting to follow that mold as they are starting to produce some exciting young arms and hitters. For a complete list of Law’s rankings please visit the link above.

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