1. Felix Hernandez (24) – Coming off a 19 win season in 2009 where he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting. Already an elite pitcher with his best years to come. The clear cut No. 1 pitcher on this list.

2. Tommy Hanson (23) -The top pitching prospect in all of baseball failed to disappoint last season after receiving the call to the big leagues in June. He finished with 11 wins and a 2.89 ERA in 21 games and is off to a good start this year. An ace-in-the-making who should contend for the NL Cy Young in the near future.

3. Yovani Gallardo (24) – The ace of the Brewers staff posted the second best K/9 in the NL last year at 9.89 to go along with 13 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA. Off to a 3-2, 3.00 ERA, 10.00 K/9 start in 36 IP this season. Needs to cut down on his career 3.92 BB/9 ratio to become an elite pitcher.

4. Clayton Kershaw (22) – Despite winning only 8 games last season on a first-place team, Kershaw has all the makings of a future ace. He finished in the Top 5 in ERA (2.79) , K/9 (9.74), and H/9 (6.3) last season, while leading the league in opponents AVG (.200). While his control needs to improve as his career 4.82 BB/9 suggests, he has the ability to overpower hitters and dominant on any given night.

5. Jair Jurrjens (24) – Had the 5th-lowest ERA in baseball last year (2.60) and held hitters to a .274 AVG on balls hit in play. Knows how to change speeds and mix his pitches effectively to get batters out. In line to be a top of the rotation starter for many years despite his early ineffectiveness this season, mostly due to injury.

6. David Price (24) – The No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft took the league by storm with a great showing in the Rays’ 2008 postseason run to the World Series. Price possesses overpowering stuff with a mid-90s fastball and a hard breaking slider that can lead to plenty of strikeouts. Like many young pitchers, he has had command issues but also isn’t afraid to challenge hitters. Off to a great start this season and looks to be coming into his own as a pitcher.

7. Phil Hughes (23) – After struggling with injuries his first 2 seasons, Hughes pitched mostly out of the bullpen in 2009 and finished with a 1.40 ERA along with showing good command (5:1 K/BB ratio). After winning the 5th spot in the Yankees rotation this spring, he has proven to be one of the teams best starters as he has gone 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in 4 starts, including a near no-hitter. Hughes looks to be realizing his immense potential under the bright lights of New York.

8. Rick Porcello (21) – The youngest player in the big leagues last season had a successful rookie campaign for the Tigers. The former 1st round pick went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA and finished 3rd in the AL Rookie of the Year voting last season. He has good control and a sinker that is conducive for plenty of groundball outs. While he may not be a big strikeout pitcher, his control and quality stuff will make him a tough pitcher to face every time he takes the mound.

9. Brian Matusz (23) – The 4th overall pick in 2008 impressed many in his brief stint in the majors last season with the Orioles by displaying a good command and presence on the mound. His strikeout and walk totals in his 13 career big league starts show his top-of-the-rotation potential. The future is bright for this southpaw and his outlook for 2010 and beyond is sure to catch the eye of plenty of baseball fans.

10. Brett Anderson (22) – Acquired in the trade that sent Dan Haren from Oakland to Arizona, the A’s are ecstatic from what they see in Anderson so far in his brief career. Baseball America’s No. 7 prospect entering the 2009 season posted solid numbers in his rookie season. He finished with a team-leading 11 wins and 150 strikeouts to go along with a respectable 4.06 ERA (3.48 ERA after the All-Star break). Anderson started 2010 on a good note by posting a 2.35 ERA in 4 starts before going on the DL with a forearm strain. Despite this injury, Anderson should be a good starter for many years with his command and ability to strike batters out.

11. Neftali Feliz (21) – Perhaps no one on this list possesses more overpowering stuff than Feliz. Currently serving as the Rangers closer, Feliz has shown the ability to dominant opposing hitters with his upper 90s fastball that has reached triple digits at times. He pitched out of the bullpen after his call-up to the big league club in August and finished with a 1.74 ERA in 31 IP along with 39 K and impressive 0.68 WHIP. The Rangers have bounced around the idea of moving Feliz to the rotation, but feel he is best serve as their closer right now. Whatever role he is in, Feliz is sure to make opposing hitters cringe at the sight of facing him.

12. Wade Davis (24) – Davis joined an impressive young Rays rotation at the end of 2009 and posted good numbers in 6 starts. In those starts, Davis went 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA to go along with 36 strikeouts and a 1.27 WHIP in 36.1 IP. He has picked up where he left off in ’09 to start 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 starts this season. Despite pitching in a tough AL East, Davis looks to be a good option to post a sub-4.00 ERA with good strikeout numbers this season.

13. Mat Latos (22) -Latos started his rookie campaign in 2009 by allowing no more than 2 earned runs in his first 5 starts. Despite struggling in his last 5 starts, Latos has shown good upside especially pitching in a pitcher friendly PETCO Park. The Padres thought enough of Latos to promote him straight from Double-A and bypass Triple-A altogether. Overall in his minor league career, Latos went 12-8, 2.49 ERA, with a 216:47 K/BB ratio in 185 IP, allowing only 149 hits. If he can translate those impressive numbers to the big leagues, the Padres have a future ace on their hands.

14. Johnny Cueto (24) – Cueto has been plagued my inconsistency since entering the big leagues in 2008. He has shown to be a very good pitcher in the first half of the season, as his 7-4 record with a 2.86 ERA through June in ’09 would suggest. However, Cueto has worn down in the second half and posted an 8.00 ERA in July and August of last season before a DL stint for shoulder inflammation. He possesses a live arm despite his small frame and still has too much upside to be deemed a failure at this point in his career. If Cueto can find some consistency he is arguably one of the best pitchers on this list.

15. Jaime Garcia (23) – After originally making his debut in relief during the 2008 season for the Cardinals, Garcia had to undergo Tommy John surgery in the offseason and miss most of the 2009 season. After winning the 5th spot in rotation this spring, Garcia has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals so far this season. In 4 starts, he has been dominating opposing hitters with a 1.04 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 26 IP. With a career 9.8 K/9 in the minors and the tutelage of pitching coach Dave Duncan, look for Garcia to maintain his success in the big leagues.

16. Joba Chamberlain (24) – After a great year in 2008 where he appeared in 42 games (12 starts) where he posted an impressive 2.60 ERA and 10.58 K/9, the future looked extremely promising for Joba. However, last year wasn’t as friendly as his first 2 years in the big leagues as his ERA and WHIP numbers increased as a full-time starter. This year, Joba was beat out by Phil Hughes for the 5th spot in the Yankees rotation and is back to the bullpen where his career as a starter is now in question again. Despite this role uncertainty, he is still a quality pitcher and should still provide good value in the bullpen.

17. Mike Leake (22) – The 8th pick in the 2009 draft is the first player since Xavier Nady in 2000 to go straight from the draft to the major leagues. Despite some control issues, Leake has been solid in his first 4 big league starts as he has gone 2-0 with a 3.25 ERA in 27.2 IP. While Leake is sure to run into some rookie struggles this year due to not pitching in the minor leagues, he has shown so far that his more than capable of being an effective big league pitcher.

18. Daniel Bard (24) – The man nicknamed “The Heat” consistently throws a fastball in the 98-99 range and even reached 101 MPH on the radar gun last July against the A’s. The 2006 1st round pick has all the makings of a dominant big league closer as his 11.5 K/9 and 3:1 K/BB ratio with the Red Sox last season would attest. Look for Bard to become a closer somewhere in the near future.

19. Chris Perez – Perez is another hard-throwing right hander who possesses an upper 90s fastball. Perez was acquired by the Indians last season in the trade of Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals and is currently serving as the teams’ closer for the injured Kerry Wood. He was originally selected in the 1st round by the Cardinals in 2006 and served as a closer throughout his minor league career. Look for Perez to stay the Indians closer in the coming years and produce high strikeout totals.

20. Jhoulys Chacin (22) – MLB.com’s No. 44 prospect for 2010 is a current hot topic in baseball discussion after his impressive first start of the 2010 season yesterday. In that start, Chacin only gave up one hit in 7 scoreless IP along with 7 K. While Chacin has moved from starting to the bullpen, his best value is seen in the rotation where he has the potential to be a very good starter. The Rockies are hoping for more outings like yesterday’s from Chacin.

21. Jenrry Mejia (20) – The youngest player on this list has been solid in his first 11 IP out of the Mets bullpen this season by posting a 1.64 ERA. The Mets top pitching prospect sports a fastball with good velocity and movement along with a slider that tends to sweep across the plate. The key for Mejia is find command of his pitches due to his great movement. The jury is out on how good he can be since he is so young, however, he has managed to adjust to the big leagues fairly well so far.

22. Chris Volstad (23) – After an impressive rookie campaign in 2008, Volstad followed it up with the dreaded sophomore slump last season. He finished his sophomore campaign with a 9-13 record and a 5.21 ERA in 159 IP. He also struggled with the long ball as he had an alarming 1.64 HR/9 ratio. The Marlins are hoping the former 1st rounder, who has drawn comparisons to Roy Halladay, recaptures the promise he showed in his rookie season to provide a solid 1-2 punch with Josh Johnson in the future.

23. Homer Bailey (23) – The former highly-touted pitching prospect has had his share of struggles in his big league career. Bailey hasn’t fooled too many hitters as they have hit .287 against him in his career. He has also been plagued by walks (4.43 BB/9) and home runs (1.09 HR/9) in his brief career which has been the main reason for his career 5.52 ERA. However, Bailey showed glimpses of his potential as he allowed 3 runs or less in his last 9 starts last season. The Reds are hoping Bailey can figure things out and live up to his success in the minors.

24. Ryan Perry (23) – Similar to Daniel Bard, Perry projects as a future closer, but currently serves as a middle reliever for the Tigers. While Perry struggled with his command last season, he did strike out 60 batters in 61.2 IP in his rookie season. The 2008 1st round pick should be a good closer in the future, but needs to harness his wildness before becoming a true option to close out games.

25. Franklin Morales (24) – The hard-throwing lefty made his debut with the Rockies back in 2007, where he made 8 starts. After a disappointing 2008 season between the majors and minors, Morales pitched 38 games in relief for the Rockies last season and showed some promise. He currently is filling in for injured closer Huston Street and is 3 for 5 in save chances. While Morales has had his share of struggles in the big leagues, he still possesses decent upside as a back-of-the-rotation starter or lefty specialist out of the bullpen.

Nobody in the league office has expressed concern yet over the dip in numbers. With the economy limping to restart itself, big corporations are cutting costs and it looks as though they are not spending lavishly on the big season ticket packages as they used to. Has baseball priced itself out of the average fan’s budget? According to the Team Marketing Report, the average ticket price in MLB is $26.79. I have to admit that prices have gotten to the point where I think twice before I plunk out my hard earned money to see a ball game. How will this affect these small market teams in the future? Will there be money to pay the demands of high priced free agents? There is a trend already in baseball where teams are going younger and cheaper (see Jermaine Dye). What would your plan of action be if you were the GM of one of these cash strapped teams?

On a side note, Biz of Baseball’s Maury Brown points out that two of the five record-breaking teams play in the AL East. If these numbers are a sign of apathy toward Yankees-Red Sox stranglehold, MLB could be facing this problem for awhile.

Andrew Swanson (Evan Longoria) – Evan Longoria is one of the best third basemen around. In just two major league seasons Longoria has averaged 30 HR, .277 BA, and 99 RBI. Of the four guys we are comparing here, Longoria at 24-years-old is the youngest. He is also hitting in the heart of a lineup that will afford him a good deal of protection. There has been talk of shifting him to the clean-up spot and batting Ben Zobrist third but whether it is third or fourth in the lineup, he will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. I would expect a .285 BA, 30 HR, and 100 RBI again this year. One word of caution though, Longoria did complain that the turf at Tropicana Field was an issue for his hamstrings causing him to miss six starts toward the beginning of the season in 2009. In other news, Yankee great Yogi Berra said that Longoria reminds him of Joe DiMaggio. How do you beat a comparison like that?

Jason Oleniczak (Mark Reynolds) – Mark Reynolds had an elite fantasy season last year. In fact, he was the best fantasy third basemen, just look at the numbers: 44 HR, 98 R, 102 RBI, 24 SB, and .260 BA. Naysayers will shout, “Look at the low batting average, and the ridiculously high strikeouts (223) that you failed to mention.” Fair enough, the only problem is that Reynolds still posted a .349 OBP and an amazing .338 BABIP. The BABIP was not an aberration either, as Reynolds produced a .323 BABIP in 2008 and a .378  in 2007. The biggest argument you could make against Reynolds being the 2nd best third basemen is the huge jump in production from 2008 to 2009 as he went from ”good to great” (thank Jim Collins). I say it was the 26-year-old Reynolds making the 3rd year jump to being a star and look for more of the same in 2010. Take advantage of Reynolds slipping in drafts due to people overly focusing on his high strikeouts, relatively low batting average, and worrying about his quick ascent into stardom. You may be able to get a bargain on the 2nd best fantasy third basemen.

Ryan Oleniczak (David Wright) – After ARod, your fantasy team could do no wrong with David Wright as your third basemen. As recently as last season, Wright was up for consideration as the possible No. 1 overall fantasy player in baseball as his averages from 2005-2008 will attest. During that period, Wright has averaged season totals of: .311 AVG, 29 HR, 112 RBI, 106 R, and 22 SB. However, last year was unkind to Wright as he posted the worst numbers of his career hitting in an injury-riddled Mets lineup in a new ballpark in Citi Field. Wright saw his HR and RBI totals drop dramatically last season as he failed to hit at least 25 HR and 100 RBI for the first time since 2005. However, potential fantasy owners should be encouraged by Wright’s 5th consecutive season of hitting over .300 in ’09 and expect his power numbers to return in a healthy and powerful Mets middle of the lineup with the addition of Jason Bay. Wright is an ideal bounceback candidate in the NL and his 2009 power numbers should be considered an aberration as Shea Stadium was considered a pitcher’s park much like Citi Field is and Wright’s numbers did not suffer. If your league takes into account defensive statistics, Wright will help you out in that department as well as he has won 2 Gold Glove Awards in his career in 2007 and 2008. Much like Derek Jeter, Wright will also bring the possibility of a cult-like following with the ladies as his former rumored relationship with ESPN reporter Erin Andrews will add a new dimension to your team. Who wouldn’t want the lovely Erin Andrews following their team? If I had my choice, Wright is the one for me.

Jon Heintzelman (Ryan Zimmerman) – If you’re looking at what direction to go early in your draft, shoring up third base is a good idea when you consider the position is top heavy this year. While ARod remains the consensus first pick, once he is gone you are left with some intriguing options. Longoria, Wright, Reynolds, and Zimmerman are all worthy for consideration (with Ramirez and Sandoval not far behind either), but I’ll take Zimmerman over the rest. While Wright is the biggest name, any player with declining power skills entering his prime years makes me wonder. Combine that with the cavernous Citi Field and I’ll pass. Reynolds had great numbers last year but .260 BA is a huge stretch for his 60% contact rate; think more right-handed Adam Dunn with some speed and expect a more realistic .240-.250 BA. I want better BA from my top picks. That leaves Zimmerman and Longoria as options 2 and 2A. Both are line drive power hitters with solid OPS (around .900), 10%+ walk rates, and are entering their prime years (26-27). I’ll give the overall edge to Zimmerman because his slightly higher contact rate and batting eye point toward a potential 10-20 point advantage in BA. Combine that with the potential for Carl Crawford’s pending free agency and contract situation to be a distraction for the Rays, and Zimmerman gets the slight edge.

This contract is a no-brainer for the Minnesota Twins. Mauer is an amazing talent who plays at a specialty position. The only concern I would voice is Mauer’s injury history. He has had surgery on his knee back in 2004 and a back injury that kept him from playing the entire month of April last season. If the Twins manage Mauer and DH him to keep him healthy I see no reason why this won’t be a good deal for them. Assuming this does not hamper them from making other moves and retaining players in the future.

Victor Martinez must be licking his chops now as he will be looking for an extension from the Boston Red Sox soon. Mauer obviously has set the bar but Martinez knows his numbers are some what comparable.  We shall see what the happens from here.

Olney’s theory of the Phillies thinking behind these discussions is that the Cardinals may not be able to afford Albert Pujols when he becomes a free agent after the 2011 season, where he is expected to command a contract similar to the one Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yankees for 10-years and $275 million. So far contract talks with Pujols and the Cardinals have not progressed and with the re-signing of Matt Holliday (OF) in St. Louis, many question whether the Cardinals will be able to afford both contracts long-term. If the Cardinals feel they can’t re-sign Pujols long-term, why not put him on the trade market like the Blue Jays did with Roy Halladay (RHP), who ironically the Phillies acquired this off season. Olney feels if that were to occur, the Phillies could present the Cardinals with a good alternative in Howard, who has more HR and RBI the past four seasons than Pujols and is a St. Louis native.

After reading this report, one has to question the credibility of Olney’s sources, who seem to be dreaming of proposing a potential fantasy baseball swap. Albert Pujols quite simply is St. Louis Cardinals’ baseball right now. He is a home-grown talent and will go down with the likes of Stan Musial in the Cardinals’ organization after he retires. The Cardinals would be doing their fans a huge disservice by putting Pujols on the market as he is arguably the best hitter of his generation. The likelihood of the Cardinals not taking into account Pujols’ contract demands when negotiating with Matt Holliday is rather slim, as I doubt the Cardinals would prefer to keep Holliday (no offense Matt, your a fine hitter) over Pujols. Another interesting note about these internal discussions is that Howard currently makes more than Pujols in the 2010 and 2011 seasons and is due to become a free agent in his own right after the 2011 season. Howard is set to make $19 million in 2010 and $20 million in 2011 as opposed to Pujols salaries of $16 million in 2010 and ’11. While Howard will not cost as much long-term as Pujols, he will still command upwards of $20 million a season and if money is an issue with Pujols going on the market, wouldn’t it make sense to go younger at the position and save money instead of tying yourself down with another long-term deal north of the $100 million mark. Buster Olney is a fairly reputable source for rumors and baseball news, but I have to question him on this one. The numbers and thought process from the Cardinals point of view just don’t add up. The mutiny from Cardinals fans after a Pujols trade could be ugly and who really wants to be known as the organization that traded away Albert Pujols?

Scott Oleniczak (Derek Jeter) – 10-time all-star shortstop Derek Jeter is this generation’s “Iron Horse.” Jeter is showing no signs of slowing down playing an average of 153 games over the last three season which ranks him first over Rollins, Tulowitzki, and Reyes. In 2009, Jeter swiped 30 bases showing he still has the ability to get you points in the all important stolen base category. Jeter is not going to win any HR titles, however, his power still needs to be respected as he averaged 14 HR over the last three seasons which ranks him 3rd verses his competition. Jeter excels in OBP and BA over the other shortstops, and falls just slightly behind Tulowitzki for the lead in OPS. The bottom line is Derek Jeter is that solid force you want in your fantasy lineup for his consistent approach to the game. One more thing, if you are looking for a shortstop who can raise the dateability of your entire roster, Jeter is second to none.  Check out this list of past girlfriends, and tell me how cool it would be to have the rest of your fantasy team hanging out with him.

Ryan Oleniczak (Jose Reyes) – Before missing most of the 2009 campaign to injury, Jose Reyes was a mark of durability (no less than 153 games played since 2005) and arguably the most exciting player in all of baseball. Reyes electrified the fans in attendance with his blazing speed and knack for getting on base. In comparison to the other shortstops on this list, Reyes numbers will be skewed due to playing in only 36 games last season. In Reyes last two full seasons, 2007 and 2008, he led all shortstops in runs scored with 232 and also took home the steals crown with an amazing 134 SB. While Reyes does not display the power of a Tulowitzki or Rollins, he helps fantasy owners in OBP (.356 average over the last 3 seasons) and a BA of .285 which is second only to Jeter’s three-year average. The recent news of Reyes diagnosis of hyperthyroidism, which has him reportedly missing anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks of baseball activity, puts his early season production in doubt. This news will scare off many fantasy owners come draft time. While the other three men on this list might be safer options at shortstop for this year, why not take a pass on them and take Reyes later in draft and shore up help at other positions. Many fantasy owners were scared of taking ARod last season with the news that he was scheduled to miss most of April after hip surgery, but he rewarded fantasy owners with his MLB record 13th 30 HR-100 RBI season and at a much lower cost. Why not take that approach with Reyes this year? Even if Reyes misses some or most of April, you can still count on him putting up elite SB and R totals, especially in a Mets’ lineup with David Wright and Jason Bay around him. Guys with Reyes talent are hard to find and a healthy Reyes will bring excitement to your fantasy team.

Jon Heintzelman (Jimmy Rollins) – When looking at the shortstops after Hanley, it can be splitting hairs to decide who’s next best. Arguments can be made for both Tulowitzki (best last year and youngest), and Reyes (best before last year)–sorry Jeter–but for my money the second best investment is none other than J-Roll. Always remember that fantasy drafts are never won in the first few rounds. The fantasy season usually comes down to whose sleepers pan out more, but make no mistake about it, drafts can definitely be lost early on (just ask Jay Oleniczak about last year and buying Jose Reyes). When it comes to early picks it’s all about elite and stable skills, good intangibles, and reliability. Jimmy Rollins brings an elite power/speed skills combo to the shortstop position, and sits atop one of the best line-ups in baseball in a hitter’s park to boot. He has a history of reliability, leading the NL in AB for the past decade. Some may point to his slow first half last year as a sign of decline, but I say blame it on the abnormally low 21% hit rate (on balls in play) and look to his second half rebound as the norm (projected: 30 HR/100 RBI/40 SB/120 R/.290 BA). While he doesn’t walk as much as some may like, he has maintained an elite 90% contact rate which always projects to a near .300 BA.  And while his SB production dipped, his SB opportunities did not change much (still around 30%), so a return to the elite 40-50 steal range is possible if not probable. When it comes to drafting in the first and seconds rounds, do you really want to leverage your season on Reyes’ overactive thyroid (not to mention the tight hamstrings). What about Tulowitzki’s drastic swings in production (look at his 1H/2H splits last season), partially due to his low contact rate (at or below 80%), not to mention his lost 2008 and never before seen or duplicated SB spike? With all due respect, there’s no need to even discuss Mr. Jeter. The smart money is on J-Roll as the #2 fantasy shortstop; you’ll give yourself the best chance to win your league with successful sleepers in the later rounds.

Bryce Carlson (Troy Tulowitzki) – On a team that continues to make me scratch my head, Troy Tulowitzki is a legitimate superstar. He may not stack up against Hanley Ramirez, who is in a class all by himself, but Tulowitzki is definitely the next best thing. The shortstop position for 2010 is pretty thin. There are a lot of big names, but with a disappointing 2009 campaign from Jimmy Rollins and a season plagued with injuries for Jose Reyes, shortstop is a position without much of a bench. Tulowitzki does not have a long major league resume, but barring injury you can expect him to put up similar numbers as last year where he hit .297 with 32 HR, 101 R, 92 RBI, and 20 SB. After Hanley is gone, Tulowitzki is your guy.  Just please don’t jump on the Rockies’ bandwagon when they make the playoffs unless you plan on following them all year… not that I have experienced anyone doing that in Denver. I’m just sayin’…

• Brandon Wood (3B) Los Angeles Angels – The former first round pick of the Angels in 2003, is finally ready to receive regular playing time in the majors as the Angels are counting on Wood to be their everyday third basemen in 2010.  Since hitting 43 HR in the minors in 2005 and being awarded the MiLB.com’s Offensive Player of the Year Award that same season, Wood has been one of the top prospects in not only the Angels system, but in all of baseball. Despite proving he can hit in the minor leagues (39 HR per 162 Triple-A games), Wood has failed to translate those numbers in his 224 MLB at-bats over the past three seasons. However, Wood is still only 25 years old and has yet to receive regular at-bats at the big league level. Now with Chone Figgins departure to Seattle, Wood has the chance to man the hot corner for the Angels for many years. The Angels patience in Wood is similar to their patience with 1B Kendry Morales, who broke out last season after receiving his first chance at everyday playing time. Keeper league fantasy owners should especially keep an eye on Wood as he could be a steal in the late rounds with his great HR potential.

CHONE Projection: .246 AVG, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 58 Runs, .762 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .248 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 69 Runs, .764 OPS

• Brian Matusz (LHP) Baltimore Orioles – The No. 4 overall pick of the 2008 draft has gone into the 2010 season as the No. 5 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com. Matusz already made it to the big leagues in 2009 as he struggled in his first 3 starts before settling in his last 5 starts to finish with a 5-2 record along with a respectable 4.63 ERA in 44.2 IP. Matusz has drawn comparisons to former AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and fellow lefty Cole Hamels and is expected to break Orioles camp as a member of their starting rotation. Matusz sports a fastball that reaches 94 MPH and has both a slider and curveball with great movement. While the projections for this season for the 23 year old lefty aren’t too kind, Matusz has already got a taste of the big leagues and has the element of surprise as he is expected to be the future ace of the Orioles staff. If nothing else, Matusz deserves a look as a late round flier in mixed leagues.

CHONE Projection: 5-6, 4.59 ERA, 100 IP, 80 K (7.20 K/9), 1.41 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 8-12, 4.48 ERA, 151 IP, 138 K (8.23 K/9), 1.45 WHIP

• Clay Buchholz (RHP) Boston Red Sox – After making a name for himself in Boston after throwing a no-hitter in 2007, Buchholz has struggled to catch on as a consistent pitcher in the major leagues. In his minor league career, Buchholz has sported 2.42 career ERA and has top-of-the-rotation stuff. Buchholz has found his name in trade rumors the past few seasons as the Red Sox have been unable to find a spot for him in their rotation and realize the value he represents to other teams. Buchholz is expected to finally get his chance to stick in the Red Sox rotation this season and impressed last September by going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 6 starts. The time is now for Buchholz in Boston and he will be a popular sleeper candidate for fantasy owners this season. Look for him to post double-digit wins with the Red Sox defense behind him and also provide a solid ERA.

Bill James Projection: 10-8, 3.91 ERA, 161 IP, 155 K (8.66 K/9), 1.32 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 10-9, 3.96 ERA, 165 IP, 156 K (8.51 K/9), 1.29 WHIP

• Austin Jackson (OF) Detroit Tigers – The key player coming back to the Tigers in the off season trade of Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, finds himself tentatively penciled in as the starting center fielder in Detroit this season. The 23 year-old CF comes to Detroit as a highly-touted prospect and has ironically drawn comparisons to the man he was traded for in Granderson. While his power hasn’t quite developed yet, Jackson has hit for a solid AVG and has shown an ability to steal some bases as he has averaged 28 SB in 4 seasons in the minors. With the acquisition of Johnny Damon, Jackson will no longer be expected to bat leadoff in the Tigers lineup and should be much more comfortable batting lower in the lineup, most likely in the 9 hole. While fantasy owners shoudn’t expect a power boost from Jackson this season, he could be a sleeper option for runs and SB. Keeper league owners especially should keep an eye on Jackson’s progress this spring.

Bill James Projection: .294 AVG, 4 HR, 37 RBI, 40 Runs, 14 SB, .767 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .271 AVG, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 55 Runs, 15 SB, .741 OPS

• Francisco Liriano (LHP) Minnesota Twins – Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006 with a 12-3 record along with a 2.16 ERA. After the 2006 season, Liriano was considered one of the bright young pitching stars in the league and was thought to be a bona-fide ace in the American League for years to come. However, Liriano developed arm problems that eventually led to Tommy John surgery in the off season of 2006. Since then Liriano hasn’t been the same pitcher and is still looking to find the success he had in his rookie season. Last season, in particular, was especially unkind to Liriano as he battled control issues and finished with an awful 5.80 ERA. This off season, Liriano went to the Dominican Winter League and was impressive in 7 starts posting a 3-1 record to go along with 0.49 ERA and 47:5 K/BB ratio. This spring, the Twins have been encouraged with Liriano’s progress and his first spring start was a success as he tossed 2 scoreless frames and had good velocity on his pitches. Liriano is in competition for the 5th spot in Twins rotation and should win the job with a successful spring. While Liriano most likely will never be the pitcher he was in his rookie season, he still has plenty of upside and will be another year removed from Tommy John surgery. Fantasy owners could find a sleeper in Liriano this season as he has the ability to produce high strikeout totals and if healthy can produce double digit wins behind a strong Twins offense.

Bill James Projection: 8-6, 3.67 ERA, 125 IP, 128 K (9.22 K/9), 1.30 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 8-7, 3.80 ERA, 117 IP, 110 K (8.46 K/9), 1.33 WHIP

• Rajai Davis (OF) Oakland Athletics – Rajai Davis was a solid AL-only option for SB last season, but he didn’t receive enough playing time to be a quality mixed league option for fantasy owners. However, Davis received regular playing time in the second half of last season and hit .325 with 30 SB and 46 runs. Davis second half stats make him a viable sleeper in mixed leagues this year as he should find regular playing time in Oakland this season, despite playing in a crowded outfield. He should provide good run totals and has the ability to steal 50+ bases with a full season of at-bats. Davis is definately an intriguing late round pickup for fantasy owners craving for steals.

Bill James Projection: .284 AVG, 4 HR, 44 RBI, 74 Runs, 50 SB, .718 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .280 AVG, 4 HR, 52 RBI, 79 Runs, 46 SB, .708 OPS

• David Price (LHP) Tampa Bay Rays – The No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft excited fantasy owners going into 2009 as he was impressive in the Rays 2008 postseason run to the World Series. However, Price struggled last year with his command and didn’t show progress until August and September. Despite displaying inconsistency common from young pitchers, Price hasn’t shown anything to dispute the fact that he will fail to live up to his potential. Price possesses dominating stuff and is thinking big for this season as he desires to be the ace of the Rays impressive young staff. Look for Price to improve on his command and become a more consistent pitcher this season. While he might not be considered a true sleeper due to his draft status and potential, fantasy owners could get Price at a very reasonable price this year as some fantasy owners will be skeptical of Price progress this season.

Bill James Projection: 10-10, 4.30 ERA, 180 IP, 157 K (7.85 K/9), 1.36 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 11-9, 4.18 ERA, 184 IP, 153 K (7.48 K/9), 1.33 WHIP

• Julio Borbon (OF) Texas Rangers – Borbon is a popular sleeper pick in the AL this year as he, like Rajai Davis, should be a great source for runs and SB this season. After batting .310 in the minors last season, Borbon built off that success by hitting .312 in 157 AB with the big league club. However, Borbon’s greatest attribute is his speed and 19 SB during his brief tenure with the Rangers last season proves he has the ability to be a big threat on the basepaths. Borbon is penciled in as both the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the Rangers and should provide a .300 AVG, 40+ steals, and plenty of runs in a stacked Rangers lineup. Borbon probably won’t last as long as some of the names on this list as he has received plenty of attention from fantasy experts this off season excited by his potential.

Bill James Projection: .308 AVG, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 85 Runs, 42 SB, .762 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .293 AVG, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 84 Runs, 38 SB, .755 OPS

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Up Next: NL Sleepers

]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-preview-al-sleeper-candidates/feed 0 http://www.amateurgm.com/mlb-gms-ranking-for-2010 http://www.amateurgm.com/mlb-gms-ranking-for-2010#comments Fri, 05 Mar 2010 15:49:28 +0000 Andrew Swanson http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=1175 Tim Marchman of Sports Illustrated recently ranks all 30 Major League General Managers. So we must ask ourselves how do you measure a GM’s success? Is it dollars spent per win? Playoff appearances? Do you take into account the minor league system and player development? The Twins may not be a power house but they have been a very successful team.

Ultimately the goal of every team is to win the World Series. However, I am not convinced that this is a sign of a good GM. Guys like Theo Epstein of the Boston Red Sox and Brian Cashman of the New York Yankees, who get a bunch of blank checks every season seem to have an advantage over the little guys. Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics who is one of the most hyped GM’s in the game and is a poster boy for “spending money wisely” has never won a pennant in his 12 years at the helm in Oakland.  Marchman argues that Andrew Friedman of the Tampa Bay Ray’s is the best GM based on  dollars per win and his signing of Evan Longoria to a very club friendly contract. So who do you consider to be the best GM in baseball?

Tim Marchman’s GM Rankings going into the 2010 season:

1. Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Theo Epstein, Boston Red Sox
3. Brian Cashman, New York Yankees
4. Larry Beinfest, Florida Marlins
5. Jack Zduriencik, Seattle Mariners
6. Doug Melvin, Milwaukee Brewers
7. Dan O’Dowd, Colorado Rockies
8. Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers
9. Kenny Williams, Chicago White Sox
10. Billy Beane, Oakland A’s
11. Josh Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Andy MacPhail, Baltimore Orioles
13. Dave Dombrowski, Detroit Tigers
14. Walt Jocketty, Cincinnati Reds
15. Tony Reagins, Los Angeles Angels
16. Jim Hendry, Chicago Cubs
17. Frank Wren, Atlanta Braves
18. John Mozeliak, St. Louis Cardinals
19. Ruben Amaro Jr., Philadelphia Phillies
20. Neal Huntington, Pittsburgh Pirates
21. Bill Smith, Minnesota Twins
22. Mark Shapiro, Cleveland Indians
23. Mike Rizzo, Washington Nationals
24. Alex Anthopolous, Toronto Blue Jays
25. Jed Hoyer, San Diego Padres
26. Omar Minaya, New York Mets
27. Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers
28. Brian Sabean, San Francisco Giants
29. Ed Wade, Houston Astros
30. Dayton Moore, Kansas City Royals

We had previously posted about Damon’s value this off season. His numbers definitely will not improve this year playing at Comerica Park.  Damon’s defense is already not much to write home about and he will be moving to a larger park. Damon’s home run totals are bound to go down as well without being able to take advantage of the short porch in right field that the new Yankee Stadium provides.

I see this as a fan friendly move and as nothing beyond one season.  The Tigers are in a transitional phase at the moment. They don’t have a very well rounded team and they potentially have many bloated contracts that they will be shedding next year with the likes of Nate Robertson, Magglio Ordonez and Jeremy Bonderman to name a couple.  I think Damon is just looking to make the most money and then try to catch on with another team next year.

I found this post the other day as I was browsing through the 2009 World Series stories at MLB.com.  It instantly got me thinking, do MLB general managers really buy teams or is this some ticked off Pirates fan?  Could this possibly be a disgruntled New York Mets fan that isn’t happy because his team didn’t buy the “right” players?  Can teams and championships simply be bought by just shelling out enough money, with a nice trophy as a reward?

I decided I’d get to the bottom of the payroll vs. playoff matter. I pieced together some data from the USA Today regarding the correlation between payroll and playoff teams.  I compiled a list of playoff teams from the past decade and then proceeded to find each playoff team’s total payroll and payroll rank in that given year.

Clearly the top spenders will be the teams in the playoffs, right? It only makes sense because they have a larger talent pool to pull from. There isn’t anyone or anything that is off limits. If you need a big starting pitcher or a guy that can mash in the middle of your lineup, you can just go pick up an over-priced free agent. Isn’t that why we have a class system in high school sports, so the playing field can be level? Everyone knows that if they didn’t have a class system, a small under-populated team and school without a talent pool would never have a chance against the mega-schools. Sure there are once-in-a-century stories like Hoosiers and the Bad News Bears, but that only happens in the movies. This is not Hollywood. Gene Hackman isn’t going to barge through the door and give a motivational speech to elevate the team and pull off the impossible. It just doesn’t happen. We live in a Jerry Maguire world, “Show me the money!”

Major League Baseball is different than every other professional sport.  The way the game is played and the model of consistency that must be established for success is different than any other sport.  Baseball has a grueling schedule and the game takes a toll on one’s body, but in a different way than football or basketball.  The roster has different lengths and different requirements in different months.  The playoff format has eight teams, not 12 or 16.  In baseball numerous players have been traded after the no-trade deadline, which is something you don’t see in football.  Baseball has an intricate network of minor league teams.  The player draft has over 40 rounds and once a year they even draft players that are currently on other teams (Rule 5 Draft). However, arguably the biggest difference is that there is no salary cap.  Even though they impose a luxury tax, teams such as the Yankees are not afraid to pay it because they have all the resources they need to succeed and no salary cap to stop them.

In 2000, the New York Yankees played the New York Mets in the first “Subway Series” since 1956.  The New York Yankees won the series in five games, handedly beating their cross-town rivals. That year the Yankees had the largest payroll in the game at $92.9 million, with the Mets owning the 6th largest payroll at $79.8 million. The average payroll for a playoff team that year was a mere $61.8 million.  Ten years later, the Yankees once again took home the crown with the highest payroll at $201.4 million.  The average payroll for a playoff team that year (2009) was $109.9 million.  In simply ten years the average payroll of a playoff team nearly doubled.

Over the course of the past ten years, the average payroll rank for playoff teams has been 11, with an annual total bill of $91.6 million.  If you want to hoist the trophy, however, your average rank is 9.1 and a payroll of $102.2 million. I heard Bud Selig rave that parity was as great as it has ever been! Twenty-three different teams made the playoffs in the past decade, that’s 76.7% of teams in the league.  Does it really matter that four of those teams only made it once? At least they were there, right?  The truth is that teams have to spend money to win championships anymore, the numbers prove it.  Maybe small market teams should form a different view of success.  Maybe just getting there should be enough. Should the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins adopt that philosophy?

Well at least we have the Florida Marlins who beat the “Evil Empire” in 2003 with the 25^th ranked payroll, more than $100 million less than the Yankees. I wonder if Gene Hackman gave them a speech before Game Six?