The Minnesota Twins look to be a contender for Lee’s services. According to Jeff Fletcher of AOL Fanhouse the Twins have offered Aaron Hicks and Wilson Ramos two of their top prospects for Lee. Also in the running for Lee’s services are Mets, Reds, Dodgers and Phillies. The Reds are rumored to be offering power hitting first base prospect Yonder Alonso but consensus seems to be that it will take more then just Alonso to land Lee.

B.J. Upton has also been rumored to be a possible piece in a package for Lee as well. Upton has issues in the hustle department this year and his batting average is less then stellar. Frankly I don’t see this as a good option for the Mariners since they already have Gutierrez and Suzuki both of which are very similar players to Upton if not better.

There are other pitchers who could help and would cost less in a trade, such as Chicago Cubs left-hander Ted Lilly and Houston’s Roy Oswalt, but more in cash.

Lilly is making $13 million this season but likely will be a Type A free agent when his contract is up at the end of the season. Oswalt is making $15 million this season and is owed $16 million next year, with a $12 million club option in 2012.

Oswalt is expensive, but considering the cost of signing Lee as a free agent after the season, he could be a bargain for the next few years. He is only one year older the Lee and he is definitely wanting to get away from the struggling Astros to play for a contender.

1. Felix Hernandez (24) – Coming off a 19 win season in 2009 where he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting. Already an elite pitcher with his best years to come. The clear cut No. 1 pitcher on this list.

2. Tommy Hanson (23) -The top pitching prospect in all of baseball failed to disappoint last season after receiving the call to the big leagues in June. He finished with 11 wins and a 2.89 ERA in 21 games and is off to a good start this year. An ace-in-the-making who should contend for the NL Cy Young in the near future.

3. Yovani Gallardo (24) – The ace of the Brewers staff posted the second best K/9 in the NL last year at 9.89 to go along with 13 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA. Off to a 3-2, 3.00 ERA, 10.00 K/9 start in 36 IP this season. Needs to cut down on his career 3.92 BB/9 ratio to become an elite pitcher.

4. Clayton Kershaw (22) – Despite winning only 8 games last season on a first-place team, Kershaw has all the makings of a future ace. He finished in the Top 5 in ERA (2.79) , K/9 (9.74), and H/9 (6.3) last season, while leading the league in opponents AVG (.200). While his control needs to improve as his career 4.82 BB/9 suggests, he has the ability to overpower hitters and dominant on any given night.

5. Jair Jurrjens (24) – Had the 5th-lowest ERA in baseball last year (2.60) and held hitters to a .274 AVG on balls hit in play. Knows how to change speeds and mix his pitches effectively to get batters out. In line to be a top of the rotation starter for many years despite his early ineffectiveness this season, mostly due to injury.

6. David Price (24) – The No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft took the league by storm with a great showing in the Rays’ 2008 postseason run to the World Series. Price possesses overpowering stuff with a mid-90s fastball and a hard breaking slider that can lead to plenty of strikeouts. Like many young pitchers, he has had command issues but also isn’t afraid to challenge hitters. Off to a great start this season and looks to be coming into his own as a pitcher.

7. Phil Hughes (23) – After struggling with injuries his first 2 seasons, Hughes pitched mostly out of the bullpen in 2009 and finished with a 1.40 ERA along with showing good command (5:1 K/BB ratio). After winning the 5th spot in the Yankees rotation this spring, he has proven to be one of the teams best starters as he has gone 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in 4 starts, including a near no-hitter. Hughes looks to be realizing his immense potential under the bright lights of New York.

8. Rick Porcello (21) – The youngest player in the big leagues last season had a successful rookie campaign for the Tigers. The former 1st round pick went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA and finished 3rd in the AL Rookie of the Year voting last season. He has good control and a sinker that is conducive for plenty of groundball outs. While he may not be a big strikeout pitcher, his control and quality stuff will make him a tough pitcher to face every time he takes the mound.

9. Brian Matusz (23) – The 4th overall pick in 2008 impressed many in his brief stint in the majors last season with the Orioles by displaying a good command and presence on the mound. His strikeout and walk totals in his 13 career big league starts show his top-of-the-rotation potential. The future is bright for this southpaw and his outlook for 2010 and beyond is sure to catch the eye of plenty of baseball fans.

10. Brett Anderson (22) – Acquired in the trade that sent Dan Haren from Oakland to Arizona, the A’s are ecstatic from what they see in Anderson so far in his brief career. Baseball America’s No. 7 prospect entering the 2009 season posted solid numbers in his rookie season. He finished with a team-leading 11 wins and 150 strikeouts to go along with a respectable 4.06 ERA (3.48 ERA after the All-Star break). Anderson started 2010 on a good note by posting a 2.35 ERA in 4 starts before going on the DL with a forearm strain. Despite this injury, Anderson should be a good starter for many years with his command and ability to strike batters out.

11. Neftali Feliz (21) – Perhaps no one on this list possesses more overpowering stuff than Feliz. Currently serving as the Rangers closer, Feliz has shown the ability to dominant opposing hitters with his upper 90s fastball that has reached triple digits at times. He pitched out of the bullpen after his call-up to the big league club in August and finished with a 1.74 ERA in 31 IP along with 39 K and impressive 0.68 WHIP. The Rangers have bounced around the idea of moving Feliz to the rotation, but feel he is best serve as their closer right now. Whatever role he is in, Feliz is sure to make opposing hitters cringe at the sight of facing him.

12. Wade Davis (24) – Davis joined an impressive young Rays rotation at the end of 2009 and posted good numbers in 6 starts. In those starts, Davis went 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA to go along with 36 strikeouts and a 1.27 WHIP in 36.1 IP. He has picked up where he left off in ’09 to start 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 starts this season. Despite pitching in a tough AL East, Davis looks to be a good option to post a sub-4.00 ERA with good strikeout numbers this season.

13. Mat Latos (22) -Latos started his rookie campaign in 2009 by allowing no more than 2 earned runs in his first 5 starts. Despite struggling in his last 5 starts, Latos has shown good upside especially pitching in a pitcher friendly PETCO Park. The Padres thought enough of Latos to promote him straight from Double-A and bypass Triple-A altogether. Overall in his minor league career, Latos went 12-8, 2.49 ERA, with a 216:47 K/BB ratio in 185 IP, allowing only 149 hits. If he can translate those impressive numbers to the big leagues, the Padres have a future ace on their hands.

14. Johnny Cueto (24) – Cueto has been plagued my inconsistency since entering the big leagues in 2008. He has shown to be a very good pitcher in the first half of the season, as his 7-4 record with a 2.86 ERA through June in ’09 would suggest. However, Cueto has worn down in the second half and posted an 8.00 ERA in July and August of last season before a DL stint for shoulder inflammation. He possesses a live arm despite his small frame and still has too much upside to be deemed a failure at this point in his career. If Cueto can find some consistency he is arguably one of the best pitchers on this list.

15. Jaime Garcia (23) – After originally making his debut in relief during the 2008 season for the Cardinals, Garcia had to undergo Tommy John surgery in the offseason and miss most of the 2009 season. After winning the 5th spot in rotation this spring, Garcia has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals so far this season. In 4 starts, he has been dominating opposing hitters with a 1.04 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 26 IP. With a career 9.8 K/9 in the minors and the tutelage of pitching coach Dave Duncan, look for Garcia to maintain his success in the big leagues.

16. Joba Chamberlain (24) – After a great year in 2008 where he appeared in 42 games (12 starts) where he posted an impressive 2.60 ERA and 10.58 K/9, the future looked extremely promising for Joba. However, last year wasn’t as friendly as his first 2 years in the big leagues as his ERA and WHIP numbers increased as a full-time starter. This year, Joba was beat out by Phil Hughes for the 5th spot in the Yankees rotation and is back to the bullpen where his career as a starter is now in question again. Despite this role uncertainty, he is still a quality pitcher and should still provide good value in the bullpen.

17. Mike Leake (22) – The 8th pick in the 2009 draft is the first player since Xavier Nady in 2000 to go straight from the draft to the major leagues. Despite some control issues, Leake has been solid in his first 4 big league starts as he has gone 2-0 with a 3.25 ERA in 27.2 IP. While Leake is sure to run into some rookie struggles this year due to not pitching in the minor leagues, he has shown so far that his more than capable of being an effective big league pitcher.

18. Daniel Bard (24) – The man nicknamed “The Heat” consistently throws a fastball in the 98-99 range and even reached 101 MPH on the radar gun last July against the A’s. The 2006 1st round pick has all the makings of a dominant big league closer as his 11.5 K/9 and 3:1 K/BB ratio with the Red Sox last season would attest. Look for Bard to become a closer somewhere in the near future.

19. Chris Perez – Perez is another hard-throwing right hander who possesses an upper 90s fastball. Perez was acquired by the Indians last season in the trade of Mark DeRosa to the Cardinals and is currently serving as the teams’ closer for the injured Kerry Wood. He was originally selected in the 1st round by the Cardinals in 2006 and served as a closer throughout his minor league career. Look for Perez to stay the Indians closer in the coming years and produce high strikeout totals.

20. Jhoulys Chacin (22) – MLB.com’s No. 44 prospect for 2010 is a current hot topic in baseball discussion after his impressive first start of the 2010 season yesterday. In that start, Chacin only gave up one hit in 7 scoreless IP along with 7 K. While Chacin has moved from starting to the bullpen, his best value is seen in the rotation where he has the potential to be a very good starter. The Rockies are hoping for more outings like yesterday’s from Chacin.

21. Jenrry Mejia (20) – The youngest player on this list has been solid in his first 11 IP out of the Mets bullpen this season by posting a 1.64 ERA. The Mets top pitching prospect sports a fastball with good velocity and movement along with a slider that tends to sweep across the plate. The key for Mejia is find command of his pitches due to his great movement. The jury is out on how good he can be since he is so young, however, he has managed to adjust to the big leagues fairly well so far.

22. Chris Volstad (23) – After an impressive rookie campaign in 2008, Volstad followed it up with the dreaded sophomore slump last season. He finished his sophomore campaign with a 9-13 record and a 5.21 ERA in 159 IP. He also struggled with the long ball as he had an alarming 1.64 HR/9 ratio. The Marlins are hoping the former 1st rounder, who has drawn comparisons to Roy Halladay, recaptures the promise he showed in his rookie season to provide a solid 1-2 punch with Josh Johnson in the future.

23. Homer Bailey (23) – The former highly-touted pitching prospect has had his share of struggles in his big league career. Bailey hasn’t fooled too many hitters as they have hit .287 against him in his career. He has also been plagued by walks (4.43 BB/9) and home runs (1.09 HR/9) in his brief career which has been the main reason for his career 5.52 ERA. However, Bailey showed glimpses of his potential as he allowed 3 runs or less in his last 9 starts last season. The Reds are hoping Bailey can figure things out and live up to his success in the minors.

24. Ryan Perry (23) – Similar to Daniel Bard, Perry projects as a future closer, but currently serves as a middle reliever for the Tigers. While Perry struggled with his command last season, he did strike out 60 batters in 61.2 IP in his rookie season. The 2008 1st round pick should be a good closer in the future, but needs to harness his wildness before becoming a true option to close out games.

25. Franklin Morales (24) – The hard-throwing lefty made his debut with the Rockies back in 2007, where he made 8 starts. After a disappointing 2008 season between the majors and minors, Morales pitched 38 games in relief for the Rockies last season and showed some promise. He currently is filling in for injured closer Huston Street and is 3 for 5 in save chances. While Morales has had his share of struggles in the big leagues, he still possesses decent upside as a back-of-the-rotation starter or lefty specialist out of the bullpen.

Nobody in the league office has expressed concern yet over the dip in numbers. With the economy limping to restart itself, big corporations are cutting costs and it looks as though they are not spending lavishly on the big season ticket packages as they used to. Has baseball priced itself out of the average fan’s budget? According to the Team Marketing Report, the average ticket price in MLB is $26.79. I have to admit that prices have gotten to the point where I think twice before I plunk out my hard earned money to see a ball game. How will this affect these small market teams in the future? Will there be money to pay the demands of high priced free agents? There is a trend already in baseball where teams are going younger and cheaper (see Jermaine Dye). What would your plan of action be if you were the GM of one of these cash strapped teams?

On a side note, Biz of Baseball’s Maury Brown points out that two of the five record-breaking teams play in the AL East. If these numbers are a sign of apathy toward Yankees-Red Sox stranglehold, MLB could be facing this problem for awhile.

• Brandon Wood (3B) Los Angeles Angels – The former first round pick of the Angels in 2003, is finally ready to receive regular playing time in the majors as the Angels are counting on Wood to be their everyday third basemen in 2010.  Since hitting 43 HR in the minors in 2005 and being awarded the MiLB.com’s Offensive Player of the Year Award that same season, Wood has been one of the top prospects in not only the Angels system, but in all of baseball. Despite proving he can hit in the minor leagues (39 HR per 162 Triple-A games), Wood has failed to translate those numbers in his 224 MLB at-bats over the past three seasons. However, Wood is still only 25 years old and has yet to receive regular at-bats at the big league level. Now with Chone Figgins departure to Seattle, Wood has the chance to man the hot corner for the Angels for many years. The Angels patience in Wood is similar to their patience with 1B Kendry Morales, who broke out last season after receiving his first chance at everyday playing time. Keeper league fantasy owners should especially keep an eye on Wood as he could be a steal in the late rounds with his great HR potential.

CHONE Projection: .246 AVG, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 58 Runs, .762 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .248 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 69 Runs, .764 OPS

• Brian Matusz (LHP) Baltimore Orioles – The No. 4 overall pick of the 2008 draft has gone into the 2010 season as the No. 5 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com. Matusz already made it to the big leagues in 2009 as he struggled in his first 3 starts before settling in his last 5 starts to finish with a 5-2 record along with a respectable 4.63 ERA in 44.2 IP. Matusz has drawn comparisons to former AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and fellow lefty Cole Hamels and is expected to break Orioles camp as a member of their starting rotation. Matusz sports a fastball that reaches 94 MPH and has both a slider and curveball with great movement. While the projections for this season for the 23 year old lefty aren’t too kind, Matusz has already got a taste of the big leagues and has the element of surprise as he is expected to be the future ace of the Orioles staff. If nothing else, Matusz deserves a look as a late round flier in mixed leagues.

CHONE Projection: 5-6, 4.59 ERA, 100 IP, 80 K (7.20 K/9), 1.41 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 8-12, 4.48 ERA, 151 IP, 138 K (8.23 K/9), 1.45 WHIP

• Clay Buchholz (RHP) Boston Red Sox – After making a name for himself in Boston after throwing a no-hitter in 2007, Buchholz has struggled to catch on as a consistent pitcher in the major leagues. In his minor league career, Buchholz has sported 2.42 career ERA and has top-of-the-rotation stuff. Buchholz has found his name in trade rumors the past few seasons as the Red Sox have been unable to find a spot for him in their rotation and realize the value he represents to other teams. Buchholz is expected to finally get his chance to stick in the Red Sox rotation this season and impressed last September by going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 6 starts. The time is now for Buchholz in Boston and he will be a popular sleeper candidate for fantasy owners this season. Look for him to post double-digit wins with the Red Sox defense behind him and also provide a solid ERA.

Bill James Projection: 10-8, 3.91 ERA, 161 IP, 155 K (8.66 K/9), 1.32 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 10-9, 3.96 ERA, 165 IP, 156 K (8.51 K/9), 1.29 WHIP

• Austin Jackson (OF) Detroit Tigers – The key player coming back to the Tigers in the off season trade of Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, finds himself tentatively penciled in as the starting center fielder in Detroit this season. The 23 year-old CF comes to Detroit as a highly-touted prospect and has ironically drawn comparisons to the man he was traded for in Granderson. While his power hasn’t quite developed yet, Jackson has hit for a solid AVG and has shown an ability to steal some bases as he has averaged 28 SB in 4 seasons in the minors. With the acquisition of Johnny Damon, Jackson will no longer be expected to bat leadoff in the Tigers lineup and should be much more comfortable batting lower in the lineup, most likely in the 9 hole. While fantasy owners shoudn’t expect a power boost from Jackson this season, he could be a sleeper option for runs and SB. Keeper league owners especially should keep an eye on Jackson’s progress this spring.

Bill James Projection: .294 AVG, 4 HR, 37 RBI, 40 Runs, 14 SB, .767 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .271 AVG, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 55 Runs, 15 SB, .741 OPS

• Francisco Liriano (LHP) Minnesota Twins – Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006 with a 12-3 record along with a 2.16 ERA. After the 2006 season, Liriano was considered one of the bright young pitching stars in the league and was thought to be a bona-fide ace in the American League for years to come. However, Liriano developed arm problems that eventually led to Tommy John surgery in the off season of 2006. Since then Liriano hasn’t been the same pitcher and is still looking to find the success he had in his rookie season. Last season, in particular, was especially unkind to Liriano as he battled control issues and finished with an awful 5.80 ERA. This off season, Liriano went to the Dominican Winter League and was impressive in 7 starts posting a 3-1 record to go along with 0.49 ERA and 47:5 K/BB ratio. This spring, the Twins have been encouraged with Liriano’s progress and his first spring start was a success as he tossed 2 scoreless frames and had good velocity on his pitches. Liriano is in competition for the 5th spot in Twins rotation and should win the job with a successful spring. While Liriano most likely will never be the pitcher he was in his rookie season, he still has plenty of upside and will be another year removed from Tommy John surgery. Fantasy owners could find a sleeper in Liriano this season as he has the ability to produce high strikeout totals and if healthy can produce double digit wins behind a strong Twins offense.

Bill James Projection: 8-6, 3.67 ERA, 125 IP, 128 K (9.22 K/9), 1.30 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 8-7, 3.80 ERA, 117 IP, 110 K (8.46 K/9), 1.33 WHIP

• Rajai Davis (OF) Oakland Athletics – Rajai Davis was a solid AL-only option for SB last season, but he didn’t receive enough playing time to be a quality mixed league option for fantasy owners. However, Davis received regular playing time in the second half of last season and hit .325 with 30 SB and 46 runs. Davis second half stats make him a viable sleeper in mixed leagues this year as he should find regular playing time in Oakland this season, despite playing in a crowded outfield. He should provide good run totals and has the ability to steal 50+ bases with a full season of at-bats. Davis is definately an intriguing late round pickup for fantasy owners craving for steals.

Bill James Projection: .284 AVG, 4 HR, 44 RBI, 74 Runs, 50 SB, .718 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .280 AVG, 4 HR, 52 RBI, 79 Runs, 46 SB, .708 OPS

• David Price (LHP) Tampa Bay Rays – The No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft excited fantasy owners going into 2009 as he was impressive in the Rays 2008 postseason run to the World Series. However, Price struggled last year with his command and didn’t show progress until August and September. Despite displaying inconsistency common from young pitchers, Price hasn’t shown anything to dispute the fact that he will fail to live up to his potential. Price possesses dominating stuff and is thinking big for this season as he desires to be the ace of the Rays impressive young staff. Look for Price to improve on his command and become a more consistent pitcher this season. While he might not be considered a true sleeper due to his draft status and potential, fantasy owners could get Price at a very reasonable price this year as some fantasy owners will be skeptical of Price progress this season.

Bill James Projection: 10-10, 4.30 ERA, 180 IP, 157 K (7.85 K/9), 1.36 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 11-9, 4.18 ERA, 184 IP, 153 K (7.48 K/9), 1.33 WHIP

• Julio Borbon (OF) Texas Rangers – Borbon is a popular sleeper pick in the AL this year as he, like Rajai Davis, should be a great source for runs and SB this season. After batting .310 in the minors last season, Borbon built off that success by hitting .312 in 157 AB with the big league club. However, Borbon’s greatest attribute is his speed and 19 SB during his brief tenure with the Rangers last season proves he has the ability to be a big threat on the basepaths. Borbon is penciled in as both the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the Rangers and should provide a .300 AVG, 40+ steals, and plenty of runs in a stacked Rangers lineup. Borbon probably won’t last as long as some of the names on this list as he has received plenty of attention from fantasy experts this off season excited by his potential.

Bill James Projection: .308 AVG, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 85 Runs, 42 SB, .762 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .293 AVG, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 84 Runs, 38 SB, .755 OPS

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Up Next: NL Sleepers

]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-preview-al-sleeper-candidates/feed 0 http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-preview-al-breakout-candidates http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-preview-al-breakout-candidates#comments Wed, 10 Feb 2010 19:09:05 +0000 Ryan Oleniczak http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=997 With the football season now in completion, the sports world is starting to turn its attention back to the great game of baseball. This week has seen the return of fantasy baseball as many sites are rolling out leagues for the 2010 campaign. Now is a great time to start getting prepared for your drafts and trying to get that extra edge on your fellow league members. In the first part of our fantasy preview, I want to take a look at some potential breakout candidates from the American League. Last season had its fair share of breakout performances in the AL with such names as Zack Greinke, Kendry Morales, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, and Ben Zobrist making great strides in their careers. Who are some potential breakout candidates this season?

• Matt Wieters (C) Baltimore Orioles – Wieters came into the league last season as a hyped can’t-miss prospect. While he didn’t display the numbers many hoped for last season, he has fantasy owners encouraged by his second half line of a .301 AVG, 6 HR, and 33 RBI along with a .362 AVG last September. He will be handed the everyday job this season and has power that is still developing. Wieters has arguably the most upside of any young hitter and is an All-Star in the making.

Bill James Projection: .311 AVG, 20 HR, 92 RBI, 75 Runs, .865 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .304 AVG, 19 HR, 90 RBI, 81 Runs, .856 OPS

• Adam Jones (OF) Baltimore Orioles – Another Orioles youngster has the chance to reach his great potential this season. The former Seattle Mariners prospect played his second season in the Orioles outfield last season and put up some respectable numbers for fantasy owners. While he has battled some nagging foot injuries the past two seasons which included missing all of September last season, his power numbers took a step up as he increased his HR from 9 in 2008 to 19 last season. Jones also possesses good speed, but has yet to translate that into SB so far in his career which could be due to his foot injuries. He has the talent to be a consistent 20 HR-20 SB player in this league and the possibility exists that he could reach those numbers this season. I predict a Justin Upton-like performance from Jones this season.

Bill James Projection: .284 AVG, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 95 Runs, 13 SB, .804 OPS

MLB.com Projection:  .283 AVG, 21 HR, 86 RBI, 90 Runs, 14 SB, .807 OPS

• Gordon Beckham (2B) Chicago White Sox – The 2008 first round draft pick of the White Sox needed only 233 AB in the minors to reach the big league club last season and he did not disappoint in his time in the majors. Some would argue that Beckham was snubbed for the Rookie of the Year Award last season as he finished fifth in the voting despite finished with a solid .270 AVG, 14 HR, and 63 RBI in only 378 AB. Beckham will be a solid choice for fantasy owners this season as he should display more power with more AB and also brings the added luxury of multiple position eligibility as he will shift from third to second base this season.

Bill James Projection: .307 AVG, 17 HR, 81 RBI, 67 Runs, .837 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .307 AVG, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 86 Runs, .875 OPS

• Franklin Gutierrez (OF) Seattle Mariners – Gutierrez saw time as an everyday center fielder for the first time in his career last season with the Mariners. He rewarded the Mariners with a solid season in which he had a .283 AVG, 18 HR, 70 RBI, and 16 SB. I expect Gutierrez to take the next step in his career with a new contract in tow and an improved lineup around him in Seattle. He is entering the prime of his career as he will turn 27 this season and a 20 HR-20 SB season isn’t unrealistic for this season. Gutierrez could be quite a pickup for fantasy owners this season.

Bill James Projection: .277 AVG, 17 HR, 67 RBI, 88 Runs, 14 SB, .773 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .278 AVG, 16 HR, 74 RBI, 87 Runs, 18 SB, .758 OPS

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Up Next: NL Breakout Candidates

]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-preview-al-breakout-candidates/feed 6 http://www.amateurgm.com/top-prospects-analysis-part-two http://www.amateurgm.com/top-prospects-analysis-part-two#comments Thu, 04 Feb 2010 18:46:38 +0000 Ryan Oleniczak http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=968 Earlier this week, I took a look at Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com top 10 prospects for 2010. Today, I want to highlight Keith Law of ESPN.com and his list of top 10 prospects and how it compares to Mayo’s list. While most of the prospects find their names on both top 10 lists, there are a few that find their names on this list only. Let’s get to Law’s list with the prospects ranking on Mayo’s list in parentheses.

ESPN.com’s 2010 Top 10 Prospects

1. Jason Heyward (OF) Atlanta Braves (1) – The consensus overall No.1 prospect on both lists. Braves fans should be excited for the arrival of this 5 tool talent in the near future.

2. Stephen Strasburg (RHP) Washington Nationals (2) – The consensus top pitching prospect on both lists. The Nationals hope Strasburg lives up to all the hype and brings home a Cy Young Award in the future.

3. Carlos Santana (C) Cleveland Indians (11) – Santana just missed cracking the top 10 on Mayo’s list, but safely finds his name on this list. Santana is a switch-hitting catcher who has left scouts raving about his ability to change the game with both his arm and bat. He has drawn comparisons to the player he is expecting to replace in Cleveland, Victor Martinez. The Indians are expected to give Santana one more year of seasoning in the minors before making him their everyday backstop in 2011.

4. Buster Posey (C) San Francisco Giants (4) – The battle for the title of the top catching prospect in the game between Santana and Posey was won by Santana on this list. However, Posey safely finds his name at No. 4 on both lists and is looking like a potential cornerstone behind the plate for many years.

5. Mike Stanton (OF) Florida Marlins (3) – Stanton takes a little step back on this list, but finds his name in the top 5 on both lists. Many scouts are in unison of their praise of Stanton and his ability to drive in runs and hit the long ball better than anyone in the minors. Marlins fans should see him patrolling right field very soon.

6. Desmond Jennings (OF) Tampa Bay Rays (6) – Jennings anchors the 6th spot on both lists. The question in Tampa is can they make an outfield with Carl Crawford in LF, Jennings in CF, and B.J. Upton in RF happen. Crawford is a free agent after the season and is questionable to return. However unlikely the possibility of all three players in the outfield together, Rays fans can dream of such a scenario which would be the fastest and most exciting outfield in all of baseball.

7. Martin Perez (LHP) Texas Rangers (18) – The Rangers find another pitching prospect in the top 10 in Perez. The 19-year old lefty has drawn comparisons to fellow lefty Johan Santana with his size and stuff. The Rangers will be cautious with Perez as he is still extremely young. He isn’t expected to reach the majors until 2012 at the earliest, but Perez’s progress could speed up the process sooner. The Rangers organization is ecstatic about their young arms and Perez could be the best.

8. Dustin Ackley (2B) Seattle Mariners (15) – The 2nd overall pick of the 2009 draft is making the switch from CF to 2B this season. How well Ackley adjusts to the position change will determine how fast he reaches the majors. He was considered the most advanced hitter in last year’s draft as he provides a high average with a great knack for getting on base. The only knock on Ackley is that his power has yet to develop and is still a work in progress. Currently, the Mariners have him penciled him for a trip to the majors at some point in 2011, but could be be later than that due to the position change.

9. Justin Smoak (1B) Texas Rangers (9) – Another name to find his name on both lists and at the same spot as well. Smoak would be penciled into most starting lineups this season, however, the Rangers don’t have room for his services this season with Chris Davis at first and Vladimir Guerrero as the primary DH. As mentioned before, Smoak has drawn comparisons to Mark Teixeira and should be a big-time run producer in the majors.

10. Jesus Montero (C) New York Yankees (19) – Another catching prospect cracks the top 10 as the Yankees hope they have find their successor to Jorge Posada behind the plate. Montero’s defense has been questioned, but he was reported to make progress behind the plate last season. There is no question about Montero’s ability to swing the bat as he has immense power and plate discipline. The Yankees have kept Montero’s name out of trade discussions and that says a lot. The team should have no problem behind the plate after Posada departs.

It is interesting to see the different top prospects list that come out every year. You often hear the term “can’t-miss prospect” loosely in baseball, which is true sometimes. The developmental process in baseball is crucial for sustained success in the league. The Braves of the 90s and the Twins are two organizations that seemingly always have a knack for producing quality home-grown talent. The Rays are a team that I see starting to follow that mold as they are starting to produce some exciting young arms and hitters. For a complete list of Law’s rankings please visit the link above.

]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/top-prospects-analysis-part-two/feed 0 http://www.amateurgm.com/2010-top-prospects-analysis http://www.amateurgm.com/2010-top-prospects-analysis#comments Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:23:58 +0000 Ryan Oleniczak http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=944 As the Hot Stove season starts to come to an end with pitchers and catchers due to report to camp within a few weeks, it is now time to start taking a look at the 2010 season. Last week, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com and Keith Law of ESPN.com released their top prospects list for the 2010 season. Both Mayo and Law do a great job of talking to scouts and team personnel to compile their lists. Many prospects find their names on both lists, however, Mayo and Law present contrasting analysis of their top 10 prospects. Here is a breakdown of Mayo’s list.

MLB.com’s 2010 Top 10 Prospects

1. Jason Heyward (OF) Atlanta Braves - The 20-year old outfielder is a rare 5-tool talent who possesses power, average, speed, and a plus arm all from the left-hand side of the plate. Heyward was the 14th overall pick in the 2007 draft and was ranked as the No. 3 overall prospect in 2009. Heyward is expected to reach the majors in 2010 and is a possibility to break camp with the team. The future is bright for this prospect.

2. Stephen Strasburg (RHP) Washington Nationals – The No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 draft is arguably the most heralded pitching prospect since Mark Prior. In three years at San Diego St., Strasburg only allowed 144 hits in 243.1 IP along with 375 K and 50 BB (.797 WHIP). His fastball tops out in the triple digits and has a slider/curve breaking ball that is devastating on hitters. The Nationals are expected to take a cautious approach with Strasburg as he is deemed the future face of the franchise. Despite this cautious approach, it will be hard for the Nationals not to bring Strasburg to the majors at some point in 2010.

3. Mike Stanton (OF) Florida Marlins – Stanton was the 2nd round pick (76th overall) of the Marlins in 2007. The 20-year outfielder is considered to have the best power of any hitter in the minor leagues as his 67 HR in two minor league seasons will attest to that. Stanton is expected to patrol right field for the Marlins, possibly as soon as 2011. He is expected to play in Triple-A for 2010 with a September call-up to the big leagues a possibility.

4. Buster Posey (C) San Francisco Giants – The 5th overall pick of the 2008 draft made huge strides in 2009 as he made the jump from Class A all the way to a September call-up with the big league team. Posey threw out 46 % of potential basestealers in 2009 and has 20 HR potential at the plate. Posey is expected to get one more year of seasoning behind the plate with the return of Bengie Molina to San Francisco. His eye is on 2011 when he should be a cornerstone behind the plate for many years to come.

5. Brian Matusz (LHP) Baltimore Orioles – The No. 4 overall pick of the 2008 draft made his major league debut in 2009 as he made 8 starts with the Orioles last season. In those starts, Matusz went 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA in 44.2 IP. Matusz has drawn comparisons to fellow lefty Cliff Lee of the Seattle Mariners. He is expected to break camp with the Orioles as a member of their starting rotation and is considered a top-of-the-rotation starter in the future.

6. Desmond Jennings (OF) Tampa Bay Rays – The 10th round pick (289th overall) of the Rays in 2006 made arguably the biggest strides of any minor leaguer in 2009. Jennings didn’t find his name among the top prospects last season, but had an impressive ’09 season where he swiped 52 bases and had his first injury-free season of his minor league career. Jennings is projected to be a leadoff hitter in the majors and is expected to patrol center field in 2011 for the Rays.

7. Neftali Feliz (RHP) Texas Rangers – Acquired from the Braves in the Mark Teixeira trade in 2007, Feliz made some noise in 2009. In 31 IP out of the pen for the Rangers, Feliz had an impressive 1.74 ERA with 39 K and only 13 hits allowed. Feliz sports a fastball that reaches the triple digits and is simply overpowering at times. He is expected to be a setup man to closer Frank Francisco in 2010. Feliz projects as either a top-of-the-rotation starter or shutdown closer in his career. The difficulty for the Rangers is deciding which role suits him best.

8. Pedro Alvarez (3B) Pittsburgh Pirates – The 2nd overall pick in the 2008 draft had an impressive 27 HR last season in the minors. Alvarez is expected to be a middle-of-the order power threat in Pittsburgh who is known for his great plate discipline. The challenge for the Pirates is whether Alvarez has enough range to play third base in the majors or if he is better suited at first base. Either way, Alvarez is the top prospect in the Pirates organization and should arrive to the majors in 2011.

9. Justin Smoak (1B) Texas Rangers – The 11th overall pick of 2008 draft is the second Rangers prospect in the top 10. Smoak has scouts drooling with his power and average from both sides of the plates. The switch-hitter has drawn comparisons to former Rangers farmhand Mark Teixeira (1B) of the New York Yankees. He projects to be a middle-of-the-order threat from either first base or as a DH. The Rangers will be tempted to find Smoak a spot in 2010, but 2011 seems more likely for Smoak to find an everyday spot in the Rangers lineup.

10. Madison Bumgarner (LHP) San Francisco Giants – The 10th overall pick of the 2007 draft is the second Giant to find his name in the top 10. Bumgarner made his Major League debut in 2009 as he appeared in 4 games (1 start) and produced a 1.80 ERA in 10 IP along with 10 K. Bumgarner will compete for a spot in the starting rotation in camp and is expected to be a rotation staple with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain for years to come in San Francisco.

Tomorrow I will take a look at Keith Law’s Top 10 prospects and see how it stacks up to Mayo’s list. For a complete list of the top 50 prospects according to Mayo, please check out the link above.

A players eligibility for arbitration can get quite confusing at times with the implementation of Super Two’s, which is when a player has between 2 years, 128 days and 2 years, 140 days of MLB service time. However, it is basically assumed that a player receives eligibility after 3 to 5 years of MLB service time. Ryan Howard (1B) of the Philadelphia Phillies set a first-time salary arbitration eligible player record when he was awarded $10 million in 2008 as a Super Two. Tim Lincecum (RHP) of the San Francisco Giants is currently listed as a Super Two, who is asking for a whopping $13 million for 2010 as opposed to the Giants offer of $8 million. If Lincecum successfully gets $13 million he would see a pay increase from $650,000 (1,900 % increase) in 2009. It’s instances like these that leave GM’s cringing at the arbitration process.

In short, salary arbitration can get quite interesting as both the team and player try to come to an agreement before each party has to exchange salary figures before a judge who then determines the players salary fate for the season. For example, Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers currently have a $2.6 million gap on his salary for 2010 as he has asked for $9.5 million, while the Tigers have only offered $6.9 million. If Verlander and the Tigers fail to reach an agreement on his salary for 2010 before next month, they will be forced to go to an arbitrator who will then determine Verlander’s salary for 2010, which could create a deal unappealing to both parties.

Is arbitration good for baseball? On the positive side, teams can go to year to year if they want with their young talent and stay away from committing big money long-term, which allows them to focus on other team needs. From a players standpoint, such as Verlander’s, he can continue to create value on a yearly basis and set himself up for a more lucrative long-term deal in the future, which could be more than he would get if he signed a long-term deal now. However, in cases like Howard and Lincecum, you can see where teams are caught in a predicament and can get stuck in a situation where the player can be overvaluing their worth and might be paying that player more than they would like to. It’s interesting to see to how salary arbitration has evolved over the years as the salary gaps are getting increasingly higher every off season.

So to answer the question, “Is arbitration good for baseball?” My answer is that the negatives outweigh the positives. It’s another case of contracts getting out of hand and players overvaluing their worth. I am encouraged to see the free agent market start to change its ways the past few off seasons and become almost like a take-it-or-leave-it stance. I hope that the arbitration process can get back to how it was when it was first implemented or done away with altogether.

It is not known exactly how many teams where present for yesterday’s session, but according to those in attendance the list of MLB teams represented was high. The teams rumored to have the best chance of signing Sheets are the New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Texas Rangers. Sheets held three separate throwing sessions consisting of 20 pitches each. He was listed as topping out at 92 mph with his fastball and his signature curveball was said to be moving well. Many scouts came away impressed from the session and thought Sheets looked healthy and ready to contribute this season. However, many of the scouts also noted that Sheets looked “gassed” after only 60 pitches as his stamina will need to improve after missing a whole year of pitching. Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com reports that Sheets is looking for $10 million, along with incentives and possibly a second year player option in his new deal. However, Sheets is more likely to find a deal similar to the one Brad Penny signed with the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this off season.

The biggest problem for Sheets in his career has been injuries. He has only pitched more than 30 games in 4 of his 8 seasons in the league. In my opinion, his career is very similar to Kerry Wood, as they are both former first round draft picks who have shown flashes of domination, but due to injuries have never won more than 14 games in a season. I feel Sheets will be a good gamble and the potential steal of the free agent market if healthy, but he needs to lessen his rumored current demands for his new deal. A team to watch in the Sheets market is the Seattle Mariners, as GM Jack Zduriencik is the former Director of Scouting for the Milwaukee Brewers and played a key role in the team drafting Sheets out of college. For more info on Sheets and his road to recovery, ESPN.com’s Tim Kurkjian has a good story up on Sheets and what he expects to provide this season.

For the Mariners, this is an excellent deal as they have locked up a 23 year old pitcher who is already considered the ace of their staff. This is also a good deal for Hernandez as he can avoid the arbitration process and be a free agent again when he is in the prime of his career at age 28, where he should find another lucrative long-term deal barring injury. In my opinion, it is encouraging to see teams realizing the importance of keeping their home-grown talent in the organization. In this era of free agency, it is common to see players jet from team to team every off season and fail to establish continuity with one club. The Florida Marlins are another team that did a great job of locking up their home-grown ace with their re-signing of Josh Johnson to a long-term deal last week.

It is no secret that the Mariners have been the most active team this off season. In my opinion, they have set themselves up to make a big run at the Los Angeles Angels and the re-signing of Hernandez might be the best and most important move of them all. Mariners fans should be encouraged by their organization’s activity this off season and should be in store for an exciting season.