With the football season now in completion, the sports world is starting to turn its attention back to the great game of baseball. This week has seen the return of fantasy baseball as many sites are rolling out leagues for the 2010 campaign. Now is a great time to start getting prepared for your drafts and trying to get that extra edge on your fellow league members. In the first part of our fantasy preview, I want to take a look at some potential breakout candidates from the American League. Last season had its fair share of breakout performances in the AL with such names as Zack Greinke, Kendry Morales, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, and Ben Zobrist making great strides in their careers. Who are some potential breakout candidates this season?
- Matt Wieters (C) Baltimore Orioles – Wieters came into the league last season as a hyped can’t-miss prospect. While he didn’t display the numbers many hoped for last season, he has fantasy owners encouraged by his second half line of a .301 AVG, 6 HR, and 33 RBI along with a .362 AVG last September. He will be handed the everyday job this season and has power that is still developing. Wieters has arguably the most upside of any young hitter and is an All-Star in the making.
Bill James Projection: .311 AVG, 20 HR, 92 RBI, 75 Runs, .865 OPS
MLB.com Projection: .304 AVG, 19 HR, 90 RBI, 81 Runs, .856 OPS
- Adam Jones (OF) Baltimore Orioles – Another Orioles youngster has the chance to reach his great potential this season. The former Seattle Mariners prospect played his second season in the Orioles outfield last season and put up some respectable numbers for fantasy owners. While he has battled some nagging foot injuries the past two seasons which included missing all of September last season, his power numbers took a step up as he increased his HR from 9 in 2008 to 19 last season. Jones also possesses good speed, but has yet to translate that into SB so far in his career which could be due to his foot injuries. He has the talent to be a consistent 20 HR-20 SB player in this league and the possibility exists that he could reach those numbers this season. I predict a Justin Upton-like performance from Jones this season.
Bill James Projection: .284 AVG, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 95 Runs, 13 SB, .804 OPS
MLB.com Projection: .283 AVG, 21 HR, 86 RBI, 90 Runs, 14 SB, .807 OPS
- Gordon Beckham (2B) Chicago White Sox – The 2008 first round draft pick of the White Sox needed only 233 AB in the minors to reach the big league club last season and he did not disappoint in his time in the majors. Some would argue that Beckham was snubbed for the Rookie of the Year Award last season as he finished fifth in the voting despite finished with a solid .270 AVG, 14 HR, and 63 RBI in only 378 AB. Beckham will be a solid choice for fantasy owners this season as he should display more power with more AB and also brings the added luxury of multiple position eligibility as he will shift from third to second base this season.
- Billy Butler (1B) Kansas City Royals – I guess you could say Butler already had his breakout season as he had a .301 AVG, 21 HR, and 93 RBI last season. However, I feel Butler is just scratching the surface and will establish himself this season as one of the elite power hitters in the AL. While the projections show numbers comparable to last season, I expect Butler to become a 30 HR-100 RBI hitter and maintain his .300 AVG. Butler should produce some great numbers as a middle-round pick as the first base position is loaded with depth. If your skeptical of Butler’s chances to repeat last seasons numbers take a look at his second half line of a .314 AVG, 13 HR, and 55 RBI in 287 AB for guidance.
Bill James Projection: .307 AVG, 17 HR, 81 RBI, 67 Runs, .837 OPS
MLB.com Projection: .307 AVG, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 86 Runs, .875 OPS
- Franklin Gutierrez (OF) Seattle Mariners – Gutierrez saw time as an everyday center fielder for the first time in his career last season with the Mariners. He rewarded the Mariners with a solid season in which he had a .283 AVG, 18 HR, 70 RBI, and 16 SB. I expect Gutierrez to take the next step in his career with a new contract in tow and an improved lineup around him in Seattle. He is entering the prime of his career as he will turn 27 this season and a 20 HR-20 SB season isn’t unrealistic for this season. Gutierrez could be quite a pickup for fantasy owners this season.
Bill James Projection: .277 AVG, 17 HR, 67 RBI, 88 Runs, 14 SB, .773 OPS
MLB.com Projection: .278 AVG, 16 HR, 74 RBI, 87 Runs, 18 SB, .758 OPS
Loading ...Up Next: NL Breakout Candidates
One thing to consider with young talent is the cast that surrounds them. Young prospects need the opportunity to see quality at bats and quality pitches. This can be dictated often times by the talent that is around them. The “stuff” that big league pitchers have isn’t that much better than what is seen in AA or AAA but the way the “stuff” is dealt is much different. Big league teams have multiple people scouting multiple teams several weeks in advance. Big league pitchers exploit weaknesses and often capitalize on a young players anxiousness. This anxiousness has been the down fall of so many promising young superstars (Corey Patterson for example). What can help counter balance this anxiousness is having guys that produce surround you. It is much easier for a young player to find his groove if the guy on the mound is more worried about the guy on deck or the guy on first base than he is about him.
Billy Butler i believe is the safest bet as far as talent level is concerned. He has great bat speed, good hands, great pop and can hit for average. However, the guys around him are Jose Guillen, Alex Gordon and Chris Getz. If those guys have career years look for Butlers numbers to increase as well. The problem i see is that those guys arent gonna have career years and Butler showed great disparity between his home and road numbers. I believe this is a cause for concern because it is a telling sign of inconsistency.
Out of this group the one player i think that is poised for break out NUMBERS is Beckham (I emphasize numbers because I don’t believe he is the most talented player on this list). There is a good chance that Gordon will be hitting in the 2 hole behind Juan Pierre and in front of the likes of Konerko Tehan and Quinten (if healthy). This spells monster numbers for a second year player that is gonna see a lot of fastballs due to Pierre’s speed, when on base, and the 3 guys following him in the line up.
Weiters will produce solid numbers but i never like to bet on a catcher, guys like Joe Mauer are one in a million. Chances are in terms of Fantasy value weiters will go much higher than his actual numbers should dictate and health is always a concern for catchers. Adam Jones is a solid play but low power numbers and nagging injuries make him a bit of a conundrum if he isnt stealing bases.
Franklin Gutierrez i see no upside to at all. I think he is over rated and Seattle cant develop and hold on to prospects, i personally think last year was his ceiling dont look for him to replicate those numbers for his entire career. At 27, there is a reason it has taken him this long to break into the Bigs as an everyday starter.
Your thoughts?
ppl voting for Beckham gotta be Sox fans. i went with wieters here for obvious reasons and my second choice woulda been adam jones and then butler after that. no doubt about it butler will be great for years to come as he was last year (u dont hear much bout him cuz he plays for KC). has anyone seen adam jones? he is a freak that has been injured. i mean i don’t want to compare him and/or jinx him but he has griffey like potential both athletically and unfortunately with injuries. hope it works out for him. he has raw ability that you cant teach
haha i didn’t see your post al. i definitely agree with you about beckham. and this post is about fantasy so u r probably right there. with all those guys in front and behind him he should get a lot of good pitches to hit. fantasy-wise its beckham, butler, wieters, jones, gutierrez
but talent-wise its gotta be wieters, a. jones, butler, beckham, gutierrez
wieters is young you can bet on this guy barring injury. he is the real deal. it seemed he improved dramatically every month last year.
jones is an out of this world athlete. we know what butler can do. beckham is the product of a good team. and gutierrez just isn’t that great
and since this is a fantasy post, what kind of moves did Seattle make besides Cliff Lee this off-season? anything offensively that could make gutierrez worth pickin up in my fantasy draft? i won my 20 person league last year and im tryin to repeat! (thats regular season and post-season, and thats with an auto-picked team which landed me grady sizemore in the 1st round and bj upton in the second. they were awful/injured all year. i mean im just sayin i know how to make some moves in fantasy baseball haha)
oh and what about some fantasy pitchers? i know you got a lil somethin somethin you can tell me about some possible breakout seasons. would love to hear some thoughts on bumgardner, that dude from cuba (who signed with the Reds, Chapman I think), Szmardzija, A. Miller, D. Bard, Strasbourg, just to name a few. any info would be great
Clayton, i heard a rumor that you are making a venture to the midwest within the next few weeks, could this be true?!?!?!
Beckham is good for one reason only…he has got amazing hair…ask hawk hell tell ya