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Fantasy Preview: NL Bounceback Candidates

After taking a look at the bounceback candidates in the AL last week, it’s time to take a look at the NL, where some quality names are in line for bounceback seasons in 2010.

  • Brandon Webb (RHP) Arizona Diamondbacks – The former 2006 NL Cy Young winner made only one appearance last season after experiencing shoulder pain during his Opening Day start. After a few months of rest and rehab, Webb finally decided to undergo arthroscopic right shoulder surgery last August, which ended his season. In his last full season in 2008, Webb almost added his second NL Cy Young Award as he finished the season with a 22-7 record to go along with a 3.30 ERA in 226.2 IP. Webb is currently working his way back into form in camp and is feeling better with every throwing session as he expects to be ready for the start of the season. Fantasy owners should monitor his progress in camp and watch out for possible setbacks. However, in his career Webb has been a workhorse as he has logged at least 208 IP in 5 of his 7 seasons and has not had an ERA higher than 3.59. If  healthy, expect Webb to bounceback in a big way and form a potent 1-2 punch with Dan Haren at the top of the DBacks rotation. Fantasy owners could find an ace in the middle rounds with Webb this upcoming season.

Bill James Projection: 13-7, 3.40 ERA, 180 IP, 143 K (7.15 K/9), 1.24 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 15-6, 190 IP, 153 K (7.25 K/9), 1.27 WHIP

  • Carlos Zambrano (RHP) Chicago Cubs – The colorful, enigmatic pitcher had his most disappointing season in the big leagues in 2009. Zambrano won only 9 games as the supposed ace of the Cubs staff and had some nagging injuries, mostly due to being in poor physical shape. Zambrano also had his yearly tantrum and outbursts that included a run-in with an umpire that led to a suspension last season. Zambrano spent his off season in Chicago where he dedicated himself to a new workout regime at the advice of the Cubs organization. Zambrano reported to Cubs camp 15 pounds lighter and has vowed to put his disappointing 2009 season behind him. He is also said to be ditching the cut fastball from his repertoire of pitches due to a lack of command of the pitch and is focused on keeping his composure on the mound, which often leads to a disappointing performance on the mound. Despite his poor win totals, Zambrano lowered his ERA in 2009 and had a rebound in his strikeout and home run totals. If this is truly a new and improved Carlos Zambrano, fantasy owners could have a real bargain on their hands in the middle of their rotation.

Bill James Projection: 12-8, 3.60 ERA, 180 IP, 151 K (7.55 K/9), 1.31 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 13-8, 4.17 ERA, 186 IP, 155 K (7.50 K/9), 1.34 WHIP

  • Ricky Nolasco (RHP) Florida Marlins – A pick by many last year to be a breakout candidate, Nolasco got off to a horrific start in April and May of last season, which eventually led to a demotion to Triple-A in late May. Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com believes a pitchers wins and ERA are not enough to evaluate future performance and that Nolasco might have been the “unluckiest” pitcher in baseball last season. Nolasco helped Cockcroft’s notion by going 11-4 with a 3.82 ERA after his demotion, despite finishing with a 5.06 ERA. Nolasco was a sabermetrics anomaly with great ratios, but unable to get outs. Fantasy owners could find a great buy-low candidate in Nolasco as many fantasy owners will steer clear of Nolasco’s high ERA and negative press. Look for Nolasco to rebound and build off his second half numbers by providing solid win totals along with a good K/9.

Bill James Projections: 13-10, 3.86 ERA, 205 IP, 189 K (8.30 K/9), 1.26 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 15-8, 3.41 ERA, 209 IP, 212 K (9.13 K/9), 1.18 WHIP

  • Corey Hart (OF) Milwaukee Brewers – After posting back-to-back 20 HR-20 SB seasons in 2007 and 2008, Hart was expected to post even bigger numbers last season for fantasy owners. However, Hart had a disappointing season as he finished with a .260 AVG, 12 HR, 48 RBI, and 11 SB in only 115 games due to missing the last two months of the season with appendicitis. Hart reportedly lost 22 pounds this off season and is hoping his weight loss will lead to a healthy season and more steals. Fantasy owners will be alarmed, as they should be, by Hart’s disappointing production when healthy last season. However, Hart is still only 27 years old and should regain close to his 20 HR-20 SB form this season. Hart is another buy-low candidate who should provide fantasy owners solid HR and SB numbers as a 3rd or 4th outfielder. 2010 could be the season fantasy owners were hoping to see from Hart last season and at a much lower cost.

Bill James Projection: .272 AVG, 19 HR, 76 RBI, 78 Runs, 16 SB, .799 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .271 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 78 Runs, 17 SB, .816 OPS

  • David Wright (3B) New York Mets – No one had quite a more peculiar drop off production in power last season than David Wright. Wright saw his HR totals drop from 33 to 10 and his RBI totals drop from 124 to 71 last season. However, Wright still provided fantasy owners with a high AVG (.307) and 27 SB in 2009. Wright reported to camp upbeat and positive about his chances and his team chances to rebound this season after a disappointing season for both parties. One possibility for Wright’s lack of production last season was due to having Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado hurt for most of the season, where Wright saw fewer good pitches and run producing opportunities. With Jose Reyes return and the signing of Jason Bay, look for Wright to have more opportunities to drive in runs and return to his 4 year averages of 29 HR and 112 RBI. While some fantasy owners might be skeptical of taking Wright in the first round this year, he shouldn’t last much longer as he is still an elite power-speed option. Fantasy owners should be confident in a return to form for Wright this season.

Bill James Projection: .302 AVG, 23 HR, 99 RBI, 100 Runs, 24 SB, .892 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .302 AVG, 21 HR, 98 RBI, 102 Runs, 23 SB, .877 OPS

  • Jose Reyes (SS) New York Mets – Another Mets player finds his name on this list as he was a victim of the injury bug last season. Previously on the site, we took a look at Reyes fantasy value for this upcoming season, where the chances for a bounceback season are high. Reyes is reportedly running at full speed in camp after leg and hamstring injuries caused him to miss 126 games last season. No one is more important to the Mets offense than Reyes, as he is the catalyst at the top of the lineup with his speed and ability to get on base. While Reyes might not reach 78 SB again like he did in 2007, he is still only 26 with plenty of potential to become a 40-50 SB threat again. Fantasy owners could get a 1st round talent in the 2nd or 3rd round in fantasy drafts this year as Reyes value has dropped since last season. Monitor Reyes progression in camp, but don’t be afraid to take Reyes high this season as he is still an elite talent.

Bill James Projection: .285 AVG, 14 HR, 67 RBI, 113 Runs, 57 SB, .784 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .302 AVG, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 114 Runs, 52 SB, .830 OPS

Which of these NL Bounceback Candidates provides the best fantasy value this season?

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Up Next: AL Sleeper Candidates

This post was written by Ryan Oleniczak

3 Responses to “ Fantasy Preview: NL Bounceback Candidates ”

  1. reyes will still over 50 bases if he is healthy. he is unstoppable on the basepaths. he provides fantasy value for owners looking for steals, 3b, runs.

Trackbacks & Pingbacks

  1. The 2nd Best Fantasy Third Basemen is…? | AmateurGm.com :

    [...] healthy and powerful Mets middle of the lineup with the addition of Jason Bay. Wright is an ideal bounceback candidate in the NL and his 2009 power numbers should be considered an aberration as Shea Stadium was [...]

    -- 03/24/2010 @ 10:14 am
  2. The 2nd Best Fantasy Third Basemen is…? :

    [...] healthy and powerful Mets middle of the lineup with the addition of Jason Bay. Wright is an ideal bounceback candidate in the NL and his 2009 power numbers should be considered an aberration as Shea Stadium was [...]

    -- 03/25/2010 @ 9:00 am

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