Yesterday, I took a look at some potential breakout candidates in the American League for 2010. Today, I want to focus on the National League, where the chances for some breakout performances are great. Last season, such names as Jayson Werth, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, and Adam Wainwright had breakout seasons that have their future fantasy owners excited for what they might bring to their teams this year. Here are some players who have the chance to breakout this season in the NL.
- Joey Votto (1B) Cincinnati Reds – The player who has arguably had the most success of any player on this list is the most likely candidate to have a breakthrough performance this season. Despite missing a month on the DL last season and battling a bout with depression, Votto finished in the top 5 in the NL in AVG, OBP, and Slugging %. He had only one month last season where he didn’t hit at least .320. Votto also hits in a very hitter friendly ballpark in Cincinnati, which should help his power numbers increase with a full season of at-bats. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Votto’s name in the top 5 rankings of all first basemen next season, as a 30 HR-100 RBI season could be in his sights.
Bill James Projection: .311 AVG, 27 HR, 90 RBI, 80 Runs, .947 OPS
MLB.com Projection: .313 AVG, 28 HR, 102 RBI, 92 Runs, .936 OPS
- Jay Bruce (OF) Cincinnati Reds – Another Reds player has a great chance of breaking out this season. The former No. 1 overall prospect in all of baseball has struggled living up to the hype since entering the league during the 2008 season. Last season was a nightmare for Bruce as he struggled to a .223 AVG and missed two months on the DL with a broken wrist. However, after returning from the DL, Bruce had a .326 AVG, 4 HR, and 17 RBI in only 46 at-bats. The 22 year-old right fielder is still very raw at the plate, but it’s no secret that Bruce possesses a great ability to knock the ball out of the ballpark. The Reds are banking on Bruce being completely healed from his wrist injury and building off his improvement at the plate after his return from the DL. Could this be the year Bruce quiets the critics and lives up to his hype?
Bill James Projection: .274 AVG, 38 HR, 95 RBI, 92 Runs, .877 OPS
MLB.com Projection: .268 AVG, 29 HR, 88 RBI, 79 Runs, .844 OPS
- Carlos Gonzalez (OF) Colorado Rockies – Gonzalez was originally a highly-touted prospect in the Diamondbacks organization before being traded to the Oakland A’s in the Dan Haren trade. Gonzalez made it to the big leagues with the A’s in 2008, but didn’t overly impress during his time with the club. The 24 year-old outfielder entered his third organization last off season when he was traded to the Rockies in the Matt Holliday trade to the A’s. Gonzalez excelled in Triple-A before receiving a promotion to the big league club in June. Gonzalez started to show flashes of his ability as he had a .320 AVG, 12 HR, and 11 SB in the second-half last season. The Rockies are expected to plug Gonzalez at the top of their lineup this season, possibly as the leadoff hitter where he hit .300 in that role. He possesses a solid power-speed combination and with regular at-bats in Coors Field could be a good option for 20 HR-20 SB this season.
Bill James Projection: .280 AVG, 19 HR, 73 RBI, 18 SB, 78 Runs, .819 OPS
MLB.com Projection: .277 AVG, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 20 SB, 80 Runs, .820 OPS
- Andrew McCutchen (OF) Pittsburgh Pirates – While not much has gone right on the field for the Pirates in over 15 years, the team has to be excited about McCutchen and the possibility that they have found a cornerstone player to build around. Between Triple-A and the majors, McCutchen hit 16 HR and stole 32 bases from the leadoff spot last season. In 108 games in the majors, he led all rookies in extra-base hits with 47 and improved his OBP and run totals every month. McCutchen displayed a great knack for getting on base and has impressive speed from the leadoff spot. While he possesses 20 HR-40 SB potential don’t expect that from McCutchen yet. However, McCutchen displays a skill set similar to Grady Sizemore and has the chance to become one of the premier leadoff hitters in the game this season.
Bill James Projection: .281 AVG, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 31 SB, 90 Runs, .783 OPS
MLB.com Projection: .288 AVG, 16 HR, 69 RBI, 29 SB, 93 Runs, .827 OPS
- Clayton Kershaw (LHP) Los Angeles Dodgers – The 21 year-old southpaw had a pretty impressive 2009 despite finishing with .500 record (8-8). In 171 IP, Kershaw finished in the Top 5 in ERA (2.79) , K/9 (9.74), and H/9 (6.3). He also posted an impressive 2.27 ERA after the All-Star break last season. While it didn’t translate to many wins last season, Kershaw’s numbers show his ability to dominate on any given night. Expect his win total to nearly double this season as he establishes himself as a legit ace in this league. A few Cy Young votes could be in the offering as well. All of this coming from a 21 year-old pitcher is quite encouraging to potential fantasy owners.
Bill James Projection: 13-7, 3.25 ERA, 180 IP, 188 K (9.40 K/9), 1.28 WHIP
MLB.com Projection: 14-8, 3.22 ERA, 192 IP, 201 K (9.42 K/9), 1.23 WHIP
- Yovani Gallardo (RHP) Milwaukee Brewers – Another young arm has the chance to establish himself as an elite ace in this league. After missing most of the 2008 season with a torn ACL, Gallardo came back last season and posted 13 wins along with a sub-4.00 ERA and the second-best K/9 in the NL at 9.89. Despite having an awful 4.6 BB/9 ratio last season, his previous track record in the minors and majors has shown this should not be a trend. The Brewers have been envisioning Gallardo as their ace of the future and 2010 might be the year he reaches that potential. If Gallardo cuts down on his walks, a 15 win season, sub 4.00 ERA, and high K/9 should make him a solid fantasy option as your No. 2 starter.
Bill James Projection: 12-8, 3.53 ERA, 186 IP, 205 K (9.92 K/9), 1.30 WHIP
MLB.com Projection: 16-8, 3.37 ERA, 197 IP, 213 K (9.73 K/9), 1.22 WHIP
- Tommy Hanson (RHP) Atlanta Braves – The third pitcher under the age of 24 to find their name on this list might have the most upside of any of the pitchers. Hanson came to the majors last June as the top pitching prospect in baseball and he failed to disappoint. In 127.2 IP, Hanson went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA and started posting dominating strikeout numbers as he had over a 10 K/9 in August and September. Hanson is a legit future ace who comes from an organization known for developing quality arms. The future is bright for Hanson as he will be an enticing mid-round pickup for fantasy owners.
Bill James Projection: 14-7, 3.30 ERA, 191 IP, 206 K (9.71 K/9), 1.15 WHIP
MLB.com Projection: 15-7, 3.39 ERA, 190 IP, 201 K (9.52 K/9), 1.24 WHIP
Up Next: AL Bounceback Candidates
4-way tie so far in this poll. Beckham clear-cut winner in the AL poll.