After taking a look at some potential breakout candidates from both leagues, I want to shift gears a little and take a look at some potential bounceback candidates from each league. Bounceback candidates are players that are poised to rebound from unsuccessful 2009 seasons due to injuries or lack of production. Today, I want to take a look at some candidates from the American League.
- Daisuke Matsuzaka (RHP) Boston Red Sox – Last season was a miserable season for the former Japanese ace. Matsuzaka revealed this off season that he hid a groin injury, that he sustained in the World Baseball Classic, from the Red Sox last season. To compensate for his groin injury, Matsuzaka’s mechanics were altered which led to a shoulder injury that limited him to only 12 starts last season. He would finish the season with a miserable 4-6 record, along with a 5.76 ERA and 30 BB in only 59.1 IP. However, Matsuzaka showed some promise in 4 September starts when he went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA. This off season, Matsuzaka is committed to reaffirming the Red Sox’s trust in him and hopes to become the pitcher he was in 2008 when he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 29 starts. He is an ideal bounceback candidate in the AL this season and could be a middle to late round steal in fantasy drafts.
Bill James Projection: 12-10, 4.02 ERA, 195 IP, 184 K (8.49 K/9), 1.37 WHIP
MLB.com Projection: 12-8, 3.79 ERA, 191 IP, 181 K (8.53 K/9), 1.31 WHIP
- Jake Peavy (RHP) Chicago White Sox – 2009 was a whirlwind season for Peavy as he dealt with persistent trade rumors as a member of the San Diego Padres and dealt with an ankle injury that limited him to 16 starts. After initially declining a trade to the White Sox earlier in the season, Peavy eventually accepted a trade to the White Sox before the trade deadline last July. Peavy made only 3 starts with the Sox last season as he spent most of his tenure with the team rehabbing his ankle injury. In those 3 starts, Peavy showed glimpses of a return to Cy Young form as he went 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 18 K in 20 IP. Critics of Peavy feel he is a beneficiary of pitching in a pitcher’s ballpark in San Diego and that his numbers will decline pitching in a more hitter-friendly ballpark in U.S. Cellular Field, along with the more potent AL lineups. However, Peavy has some of the best stuff in the game and has Cy Young credentials to go along with a bulldog mentality. Look for Peavy to rebound in a big way and re-establish himself as the ace of the White Sox and one of the elite starters in baseball.
Bill James Projection: 16-8, 3.18 ERA, 215 IP, 217 K (9.08 K/9), 1.16 WHIP
MLB.com Projection: 16-10, 3.66 ERA, 203 IP, 211 K (9.35 K/9), 1.27 WHIP
- Grady Sizemore (OF) Cleveland Indians – Sizemore went into last season as one of the top fantasy outfielders in the game as he was coming off his first 30-30 season in 2008 ( 33 HR-38 SB). However, fantasy owners were disappointed last season as Sizemore was a victim of playing through some nagging injuries that cost him 56 games and hurt his production. Last September, Sizemore had surgeries on both his elbow and lower abdomen with the hope of a healthy and productive 2010 campaign. However, Sizemore’s off season got off to a rough start as some risque’ photos of himself made their way on the Internet. Sizemore is reportedly ready for Spring Training and eager to put the incident and his disappointing 2009 season to rest this season. Sizemore is still only 27 years old and has a chip on his shoulder to prove he is a star-in-the-making. Look for him to rebound and put together at least a 20 HR-20 SB campaign. While he won’t be taken in the first round this year, he won’t last much longer after that as he excites fantasy owners with his rare combination of power and speed.
Bill James Projection: .272 AVG, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 101 Runs, 21 SB, .853 OPS
MLB.com Projection: .271 AVG, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 98 Runs, 25 SB, .851 OPS
- Ben Sheets (RHP) Oakland Athletics – Sheets has arguably the most to prove of any player on this list. After missing the entire 2009 season to a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, Sheets is looking to prove that he can put together a healthy campaign and return to his All-Star form. After holding a throwing session for multiple MLB scouts last month, Sheets impressed enough to receive a one-year deal worth $10 million plus incentives with the A’s. Sheets now finds himself pitching in one of best pitchers’ park in all of baseball in Oakland and will be counted on to be the ace of the staff. When healthy, Sheets provides great strikeout totals and a solid ERA for fantasy owners. His numbers should be solid pitching in Oakland and he could see a spike in fantasy value as a possible mid-season pickup for a contender at the trade deadline. However, many fantasy owners are wary of Sheets injury history,as they should be, and will be skeptical to use a top pick on the pitcher. However, Sheets should be rested after missing a full season and is expected to go full steam in Spring Training. Sheets has the potential to be an excellent value in the middle rounds as a No. 3 fantasy starter.
CHONE Projection: 7-6, 4.11 ERA, 114 IP, 81 K ( 6.39 K/9), 1.30 WHIP
MLB.com Projection: 10-9, 3.52 ERA, 166 IP, 121 K (6.56 K/9), 1.26 WHIP
- B.J. Upton (OF) Tampa Bay Rays – After hitting 8 postseason HR in the Rays’ 2008 run to the World Series, fantasy owners were drooling at the thought of Upton becoming the next 30-30 man in baseball. However, Upton underwent off season surgery on his shoulder which caused him to develop some bad habits at the plate and altered his mechanics. Despite helping fantasy owners with 42 SB last season, Upton disappointed fantasy owners in every other major category as he finished with a .241 AVG, 11 HR, and 55 RBI in 144 games. According to Peter Gammons of MLB.com, Upton has been working hard this off season with Rays’ hitting coach Derek Shelton on getting comfortable at the plate and staying consistent in his approach. Upton is an ideal bounceback candidate in the AL as he is still only 25 years old and should be fully healed from his shoulder issues. A return to his 20 HR form in 2007 and 40 plus SB shouldn’t be far off. Fantasy owners might finally be pleased with what they see in B.J. Upton this season.
Bill James Projection: .266 AVG, 13 HR, 59 RBI, 81 Runs, 39 SB, .768 OPS
MLB.com Projection: .268 AVG, 14 HR, 71 RBI, 88 Runs, 40 SB, .789 OPS
- Josh Hamilton (OF) Texas Rangers – After bursting on the scene in 2008 with MVP-like numbers with a .304 AVG, 32 HR, and 130 RBI, Hamilton found the injury-bug last season as he had two stints on the DL that limited him to 336 AB. The Rangers are looking to alleviate the strain on Hamilton’s body by moving him to left field this season with the hopes he can regain his form from 2008. Hamilton also has the luxury of hitting in a hitters’ park especially friendly on left-handed hitters. He will find himself in the middle of a potent lineup with Vladimir Guerrero as his protection, which should increase the number of quality pitches he will see. Hamilton is entering the prime of his career at 28 years old and should provide good power numbers for fantasy owners. While he might not reach his totals from 2008, Hamilton should provide 20-25 HR and 90-100 RBI in the Rangers lineup. He is a perfect buy-low candidate and should have a better season for fantasy owners this season.
Bill James Projection: .293 AVG, 23 HR, 91 RBI, 75 Runs, .860 OPS
MLB.com Projection: .291 AVG, 25 HR, 92 RBI, 77 Runs, .860 OPS
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why dont your polls ever let me vote? I would clearly pick ben sheets!
yeah your right childers. he doesn’t have anything to prove skill wise because he’s good when he’s healthy. He just has to prove he can make it 10 starts in a row without being put on the DL.
Fact: Ben Sheets has some of the best stuff in baseball!