With the exception of Aroldis Chapman the majority of this year’s top free agent pitchers have suffered through more than their share of aches and pains. They are tempting pitchers to have on your roster, but they come with a lot of baggage too. So who is worth the risk and who isn’t?
John Lackey (RHP) – Lackey has been a work horse for the LA Angels since the 2003 season. He is a bona fide ace that at the age of 31 could potentially anchor your staff for the next 5+ years. Over the past five seasons, Lackey has never produced an ERA greater than four. In each season since 2006, Lackey’s WHIP has ranged from 1.21 to 1.26. In addition, Lackey’s K/9 (an impressive 7.2) has remained the same in each season since 2007 and his BB/9 has ranged from 2.1 to 2.4. And most importantly (by team standards), Lackey has won more than 10 games in every season since 2003. He has however spent a good chunk of time on the DL the last two years with various arm issues (triceps and elbow).
Verdict: Lackey is worth the risk but not for C.C. Sabathia type money. I predict a contract of 4-5 years in the $60-75 million range.
Erik Bedard (LHP) – Southpaws are hard to come buy and especially guys with the amount of talent Bedard has displayed. When he actually has pitched he has put up great numbers averaging 8.8 K/9 to go along with a 3.71 ERA over the last 7 season. Unfortunately he has only started 15 games in each of the last two seasons. He is suffering from a torn labrum and inflamed bursa and will most likely be out for the first month of 2010.
Verdict: Bedard is worth the risk, but only on a 1 year deal with a possible option. I say he gets a $4-5 million dollar base salary with incentives that could bring him up to $7-8 million.
Ben Sheet (RHP) – The Brewers missed their chance to trade Sheets when he was still under their control, which is unfortunate because they could have received quite a haul. Sheets is the type of guy that makes a fan and teammates pull their hair out. He is great when he is healthy, but never actually seems to stay healthy for an entire season. From 2005-2007 Sheets never pitched more then 157 innings, and he sat out the entirety of the 2009 season with a torn flexor tendon. His camp says he will be ready for the start of the 2010 season and that he has started to throw off of flat ground.
Verdict: Sheets is only worth an incentive laden contract as he really needs to prove he is healthy for an entire season. I say he gets one year with a $3-4 million base salary and incentives that could bring him up to $6-7 million.
Rich Harden (RHP) – Harden served the Cubs well this past season. He has a lifetime 9.4 K/9 and a 3.39 era. Even though his stuff is explosive it seems his arm is also. He has only averaged 19 starts each season since coming up as a rookie in 2003.
Verdict: I recommend looking elsewhere, but think that Harden will get a two year contract with $14 million guaranteed and the potential for another $6 million in incentives.
Randy Wolf (LHP) – Wolf flies under the radar in this category but he is a very good pitcher. He strikes out opposing hitters at a very consistent clip and he is one of those “elusive” lefties. He has bounced around a lot since his departure from Philadelphia but he would make a good #3 on any staff . It seems like his injury days are slowly fading as he hasn’t missed much time after his 2007 shoulder surgery.
Verdict: If you need a lefty he is worth the gamble. I say he gets a two-year contract around $14 million.
Mark Prior (RHP) – After leading the league in simulated inning for better part of the last decade we think it is time the guy just hangs it up. We are not sure if it is a mental issue or if his arm is really just that screwed up.
Verdict: Do you really have to ask?
It will be interesting to see what the market dictates for Bedard, Sheets, and Harden. Either one of theses guys, if healthy, could really help a team out. If you were the Royals, would you consider throwing money at one or two of these guys?
I think the Royal’s need to get some consistent hitting before they worry about their rotation. They have Grienke, Meche, Davies, Hochevar. While they aren’t all great surprisingly I don’t think the pitching is their weakest link. They need Gordon to play to his potential. That is what would make the difference with the Royals.