There is an old adage in baseball that “good pitching beats good hitting”. In this series I want to look at the starting rotations from each division and see how they match up with others.
The American League East has always been a case of the haves and the have nots. At the top you have the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox who seem to have an endless amount of cash at their disposal to sign whom ever the top free agents are on the market. At the bottom you have the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays who have a hard time “keeping up with the Jones”. Who has the best Pitching Staff of the 5 teams on the eastern sea board for the junior circuit? Which GM is getting the most bang for their buck?
New York Yankees: The Bronx Bombers are the perennial favorites to win the division year in and year out. They have a long history of success with their hurlers going back to Whitey Ford, Ron Guidry and the like. This season’s rotation is well rounded but it comes at a premium price of around $63.25 million.
- C.C. Sabathia: He is one of the most dominate lefties in baseball at the moment. He posted a 3.37 ERA, 197 K’s, 230.0 IP and 67 BB at price tag of $23 million.
- A.J. Burnett: Burnett has a wicked curveball and some of the most explosive stuff in baseball. However he has does have fits of wildness on the mound that leads to some high numbers. He posted 4.04 ERA, 195 K’s, 207.0 IP and 97 BB while collecting $16.5 million.
- Andy Pettitte: Pettitte has been a stalwart in the Yankees’ rotation for years now. He has always been a dependable big game pitcher. He posted 4.16 ERA, 148 K’s, 194.2 IP and 76 BB for $11.75 this coming season.
- Javier Vazquez: This is Vazquez’s second time around with the Yankees. He has great stuff but has a reputation for not being able to rise to the occasion in a pressure situation and that could lead to disaster in New York. Vazquez posted a 2.87 ERA, 238 K’s, 219.1 IP and 44 BB for $11.5 million.
- 5th Starter: There are several options for the Yankees in this spot this year. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes are most likely the top two candidates for the position.
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox have really come into their own over the past decade and have finally rid themselves of the dreaded “Curse of the Bambino”. Pitching has played a major role in this turn around with the likes of Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. The Red Sox rotation has a price tag of approximately $45.75 million for 2010 with the option to choose from 6 pitchers depending on how healthy they are.
- Jon Lester: After battling back from cancer treatments a couple of years ago Jon Lester and blossomed into a fine young pitcher. He posted a 3.41 ERA, 225 K’s, 203.1 IP and 64 BB for only $3.75 million in 2010.
- Josh Beckett: As the ace of the staff in 2009 Beckett led the charge with a 3.86 ERA, 199 K’s, 212.1 IP and 55 BB for $12 million.
- John Lackey: Lackey joins the BoSox this season after coming off injuries that have plagued him the past two seasons. He posted 3.83 ERA, 139 K’s, 176.1 IP and 47 BB for $18 millions. (A side note Lackey’s annual salary actually decreases to 15.25 million a season after 2010)
- Daisuke Matsuzaka: Dice-K has been a thorn in the Red Sox side as of late. They have not been happy with his conditioning and Matsuzaka has not been very cooperative in return. He posted a 5.76 ERA, 54 K’s, 59.1 IP and 30 BB for $8 million.
- Clay Buchholtz: At the age of 25 Buchholtz is another rising star in the Red Sox rotation. He threw for a 4.21 ERA, 68 K’s, 92.0 IP and 36 BB for near the major league minimum.
- Tim Wakefield: The crafty knuckleballer has been a constant in the ever changing rotation for the Red Sox and he expects to compete for a starting position. He hurled a 4.58 ERA, 72 K’s, 129.2 IP and $50 walks for $3.5 million.
Tampa Bay Rays: The Ray’s have come into their own the last few season’s by molding their raw young talent in to a success baseball team. While they don’t have the money the Red Sox and the Yankees’ possess they have still fielded a competitive team and even made a World Series appearance. The Rays have $7.5 million wrapped up in their starting rotation for 2010.
- James Shields: Shields is the defacto ace of the staff now that the Rays traded Scott Kazmir to the Angels. He has posted good number and has seen quite a bit of success. He numbers are as follows 4.14 ERA, 167 K’s, 219.2 IP and 52 BB for $2.5 million.
- Matt Garza: Garza has the numbers to challenge Shields for the aces designation for the Rays. Tampa did a great job in acquiring him from the Twins a few years ago and have not been disappointed by his numbers. In 2009 he threw for a 3.95 ERA, 189 K’s, 203.0 IP and 79 BB for $3.35 million in 2010.
- Jeff Niemann: Niemann was a pleasant surprise this past season for the Rays. He really stepped up and met the challenge in his first full season in the majors. He posted a 3.94 ERA, 125 K’s, 180.2 IP and 59 BB for near the minimum.
- David Price: Price has been talked about a lot since the Rays drafted him. He came up and was lights out in the playoff for the Rays but last season didn’t fair as well. He posted a 4.42 ERA, 102 K’s, 128.1 IP and 54 BB for near the minimum.
- Wade Davis: Davis has the inside track for the 5th spot in the rotation. He is definitely raw but he showed quite a bit of potential last season with a 3.72 ERA, 36 K’s, 36.1 IP and 13 BB at the minimum.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays rotation his a huge question mark this upcoming season. They have traded their ace Roy Halladay in an effort to rebuild. They are also coming off a season in which a majority of their young staff was out with injuries. The positive is that there is some upcoming talent and they are all making nearly the minimum. The Jays will pay approx $3 million for their rotation in 2010.
- Ricky Romero: Romero has the daunting task of heading up the staff in only his second season in the big league. He posted a 4.30 ERA, 141 K’s, 178.0 IP and 79 BB near the minimum.
- Shaun Marcum: Marcum was one of the injured players last season, missing the entire 2009 season. In 2008 he posted a 3.39 ERA, 123 K’s, 151.1 IP and 50 BB. He is signed for $850k in 2010.
- Brandon Morrow: Morrow came to the Jays in the Roy Halladay trade. He posted a 4.39 ERA, 63 K’s, 69.2 IP and 44 BB at near the minimum for Seattle last season.
- Marc Rzepczynski: Rzepczynski did an admirable job for the Jays with a 3.67 ERA, 60 K’s, 61.1 IP and 30 BB for the minimum.
- Dustin McGowan: McGowan had shown great strides in becoming an important pitcher for that Jays until he too went down with an injury and missed the 2009 season. In 2008 he had a 4.37 ERA, 85 K’s, 111.1 IP and 38 BB for $500K.
There are several others vying for a spot in the Jay’s rotation as well. Among them are Brett Cecil, Scott Richmond, David Purcey and recently acquired Dana Eveland. They are all making about the minimum.
Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles wound up in the cellar in 2009 and are hoping to pull themselves out with an improved pitching staff. They have seen a lot of talent leave the nest but they have also acquired a new ace and have some promising young talent to back him up. The Orioles are spending approximately $17 million on their 2010 rotation with the majority of that wrapped up in Kevin Millwood.
- Kevin Millwood: Millwood was acquired from the Texas Rangers to head the rotation in 2010. He posted a 3.67 ERA, 123 K’s, 198.2 IP and 71 BB while earning $12 million.
- Jeremy Guthrie: Guthrie was the ace last season and didn’t fair as well as he has in the past. He posted a 5.04 ERA, 110 K’s, 200.0 IP and 60 BB. Guthrie is arbitration eligible and will earn as much as $3.625 million.
- Brad Bergesen: Bergesen what a diamond in the rough in 2009. In his rookie season he threw for a 3.43 ERA, 65 K’s, 123.1 IP and 32 BB for the major league minimum.
- Brian Matusz: Matusz had cruised through the minors last year only to get roughed up in his first few starts. He settled down and did well at the end of the season. He posted a 4.63 ERA, 38 K’s, 44.2 IP and 14 BB at the minimum.
- Chris Tillman: Tillman had a rough start and what really hurt him was the long ball. If he can keep the ball in the park he may see quite a few starts this season. He posted a 5.40 ERA, 39 K’s, 65.0 IP and 24 BB at the minimum.
- David Hernandez: Hernandez’s season went well up until August last year when gave up 23 homers over his last 12 starts. He posted a 5.42 ERA, 68 K’s, 101.1 IP and 46 BB for the minimum.
- Jason Berken: Berken was less then stellar in his debut last season. He posted a 6.54 ERA, 66 K’s, 119.2 IP and 44 BB for the minimum.
After running through the numbers of all the AL East teams you can see how large a distance there is on spending between the clubs. Do not feel sorry for everyone those. Teams like the Orioles have the money to spend on free agents but have either chosen not to or cannot convince top tier starters to join their club. As this point I am torn. I want to give the Rays my vote for best overall rotation (considering money as a factor) but the Red Sox keep must be given the award. Though they are out spending the majority of their division they have acquired top tier talent without completely over spending like the Yankees have. They are also doing a much better job at managing and growing their in house talent. The Joba Chamberlain debacle in the Bronx is really hurting the Yankees in my opinion. So what do you think?
I wanna take my vote back and place it on the Blue Jays! 3 million dollars for those arms. I mean clearly they arent the most talented, but bang for your buck. Absolutely! Take this into consideration the average ticket price for the chicago cubs is right around 37 dollars if the chicago cubs sell out 2 games they have already paid for the entire Blue Jays rotation. That is not taking into account advertising, tv revenue, concessions/beer sales or apparel. The truth of the matter is, the Blue Jays or Orioles are not going to win the East with power houses like the Yanks and Red Sox. So you might as well play with cheap talent and try to at least make a buck.
do you think price will turn into an under achiever with the rays?
No I think he will be a good one. I thought about him as a breakout, but I got him under a different category. He is only going to be in his second full season. He will be fine.