If Ryan Braun is off your fantasy league draft board there is no need to be confused. The analysts at amateurgm.com are here to help you decide who to anchor your fantasy outfield with.
Alex Childers (Carl Crawford) – Four years $66 million; Seven years $120 million. No, that’s not the Saudi Prince’s inheritance; those are the respective pay days that Jason Bay and Matt Holliday earned this year. Carl Crawford has the potential to earn an equivalent payday if he can perform like he has in the past. With the Yankees showing interest, Crawford is prepared for a career year and a huge pay day. Last season Crawford produced his typical stat line .305/.364/.452 (BA/OBP/SLG) 60 SB, 15 HR, 68 RBI and 96 R. At the age of 28, Crawford is in his prime and has exhibited great consistency as a legitimate five-tool player over his eight seasons at the Major League level. His 362 career SB rank him 4th on the active list and he is the youngest player in the top 10.
Sure Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun are flashy picks, but neither one has a proven track record. Braun broke into the league in 2007 and Kemp in 2006, mere babies. The CHONE Projection has Ryan Braun hitting .309/.372/.568 with 99 RBI, 33 HR, and 16 SB. CHONE projects Matt Kemp as .305/.364/.501 with 82 RBI, 20 HR, and 27 SB. Not much more impressive than Crawford, and what Crawford lacks in power he more than makes up for in speed. A potentially even bigger upside to taking Crawford is his average draft position. Both Braun and Kemp, on average, went in the top 8 of yahoo fantasy drafts, Crawford on the other hand wasn’t snatched up until the 22nd pick. If you can select power with your first overall selection, chances are Crawford’s consistency and speed will still be waiting for you well after the overvalued Kemp and Braun are gone.
Braun and Kemp are infants; Grady and Holliday are injuries waiting to happen. Take the guy that has the most to play for, the guy that has been consistent, and the guy that is a legitimate five-tool player. If you are lucky, you may even be able to steal him in the second round. Stealing, now that’s something Crawford is familiar with.
Bryce Carlson (Matt Holliday) – Whoever said that Matt Holliday’s offensive numbers were a product of the thin mountain air at Coors Field might have been right… if they only looked at the first two thirds of last season while he played for the Oakland Athletics. I’m not sure what the elevation difference is between Oakland and St. Louis, but Holliday proved that he is still a great offensive player last year in his 63 games as a Cardinal. Ok, so the elevation difference in 532 ft, but that is nothing when compared to the Mile High City of Denver.
Even with a poor start in Oakland last year, Holliday still finished the season with a .313 BA and 109 RBI. Don’t expect to see a major jump in his power numbers from last year (24 HR, .515 SLG) as these statistics have been declining since 2007. What can you expect from Holliday in 2010? He won’t hit 35 HR, but he will still have an average around .315, 100+ runs, 100+ RBI, and an OBP approaching .400. He might even steal a few bases for you… go figure. Don’t be afraid to draft Holliday as a major player on your 2010 fantasy team. He is a top 5 outfielder who will put up a ton of offensive numbers. However, if your league carries a sliding into home statistic, you may need to rethink that…
Jon Heintzelman (Matt Kemp) – If Braun is the first OF off the board in your draft don’t sweat it. You’ll be in position to scoop up five-category roto-stud Matt Kemp as the next best OF option. Kemp has everything going for him to be worthy of a mid-first round pick in mixed league drafts. As I said in an earlier post, you want to invest early round picks in power/speed players with stable skills and high reliability. Kemp not only fits this profile, but he is also still growing into his power profile while entering his prime years (he’s only 26). His HR/fly ball rate has grown from 10% to 12% to 15% in the last three years while he’s maintained an elite >20% line drive rate. With Kemp you can take 30-100-30-100-.300 to the bank with a chance for more power growth to boot (35-120 possible). If you line up Kemp’s profile against the next best options at OF no one stacks up. Holliday can match Kemp’s power profile with half the SB, but don’t fall in love with his .350+ BA in St. Louis last season post trade, it was inflated by an obscenely high .391 BABIP. I know Crawford swiped 60 last season, but look at the second half drop off (40/20), and you’re giving up 30-50% in HR/RBI on top of it, no thanks. As for Grady, I love him, but given his injury history the past couple of years how can you rely on him with other high quality options out there. Investing in Kemp will provide happy fantasy returns, and you can take that to the bank!
Ryan Oleniczak (Grady Sizemore)
Dear Grady,
I have to convince the readers of amateurgm.com that you are still an elite fantasy outfielder and that last seasons injuries are in the past. I want to prove to them that you are better than Matt Kemp, Matt Holliday, and Carl Crawford. My hope is that you don’t cause pain again to the fantasy owners who took you in the first round of many drafts last season. You and I both know when you’re at the top of your game, you are arguably the best fantasy outfielder as you provide the coveted power-speed combo from the leadoff spot that all fantasy owners drool over. If you could add another Gold Glove to your collection that would be great, too. I mean Grady, I am sure you are a smart guy and know your production when you’re healthy, but let me refresh your memory. From 2005-2008 your season averages were quite impressive: 159 GP, .281 AVG, 26 HR, 81 RBI, 116 R, and 28 SB. If you could return to your 2008 numbers where you posted career highs in HR (33), RBI (90), and SB (38), you will make the fantasy owners who take you instead of Kemp and Holliday very happy as your overall production is quite comparable to those guys who are likely to be taken before you. If only you could convince your new manager Manny Acta to take you out of the leadoff spot, you might finally reach 100 RBI in a season. Don’t fret those injuries Grady, I am sure your doctors took care of you and you should be able to return to your habit of wreaking havoc on the basepaths and scoring runs. Consider me one of your biggest fans and believer that you can return to form this season. I know you have a chip on your shoulder and believe you can bounceback this season. So what do you say Grady? Let’s leave the other fantasy options in your rearview mirror and repay those of us that took you in the first round last year. Just one more thing Grady, do you think you could stop putting risque pictures of yourself on the internet?
Sincerely,
Ryan Oleniczak
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