The Minnesota Twins look to be a contender for Lee’s services. According to Jeff Fletcher of AOL Fanhouse the Twins have offered Aaron Hicks and Wilson Ramos two of their top prospects for Lee. Also in the running for Lee’s services are Mets, Reds, Dodgers and Phillies. The Reds are rumored to be offering power hitting first base prospect Yonder Alonso but consensus seems to be that it will take more then just Alonso to land Lee.

B.J. Upton has also been rumored to be a possible piece in a package for Lee as well. Upton has issues in the hustle department this year and his batting average is less then stellar. Frankly I don’t see this as a good option for the Mariners since they already have Gutierrez and Suzuki both of which are very similar players to Upton if not better.

There are other pitchers who could help and would cost less in a trade, such as Chicago Cubs left-hander Ted Lilly and Houston’s Roy Oswalt, but more in cash.

Lilly is making $13 million this season but likely will be a Type A free agent when his contract is up at the end of the season. Oswalt is making $15 million this season and is owed $16 million next year, with a $12 million club option in 2012.

Oswalt is expensive, but considering the cost of signing Lee as a free agent after the season, he could be a bargain for the next few years. He is only one year older the Lee and he is definitely wanting to get away from the struggling Astros to play for a contender.

• Brandon Wood (3B) Los Angeles Angels – The former first round pick of the Angels in 2003, is finally ready to receive regular playing time in the majors as the Angels are counting on Wood to be their everyday third basemen in 2010.  Since hitting 43 HR in the minors in 2005 and being awarded the MiLB.com’s Offensive Player of the Year Award that same season, Wood has been one of the top prospects in not only the Angels system, but in all of baseball. Despite proving he can hit in the minor leagues (39 HR per 162 Triple-A games), Wood has failed to translate those numbers in his 224 MLB at-bats over the past three seasons. However, Wood is still only 25 years old and has yet to receive regular at-bats at the big league level. Now with Chone Figgins departure to Seattle, Wood has the chance to man the hot corner for the Angels for many years. The Angels patience in Wood is similar to their patience with 1B Kendry Morales, who broke out last season after receiving his first chance at everyday playing time. Keeper league fantasy owners should especially keep an eye on Wood as he could be a steal in the late rounds with his great HR potential.

CHONE Projection: .246 AVG, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 58 Runs, .762 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .248 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 69 Runs, .764 OPS

• Brian Matusz (LHP) Baltimore Orioles – The No. 4 overall pick of the 2008 draft has gone into the 2010 season as the No. 5 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com. Matusz already made it to the big leagues in 2009 as he struggled in his first 3 starts before settling in his last 5 starts to finish with a 5-2 record along with a respectable 4.63 ERA in 44.2 IP. Matusz has drawn comparisons to former AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and fellow lefty Cole Hamels and is expected to break Orioles camp as a member of their starting rotation. Matusz sports a fastball that reaches 94 MPH and has both a slider and curveball with great movement. While the projections for this season for the 23 year old lefty aren’t too kind, Matusz has already got a taste of the big leagues and has the element of surprise as he is expected to be the future ace of the Orioles staff. If nothing else, Matusz deserves a look as a late round flier in mixed leagues.

CHONE Projection: 5-6, 4.59 ERA, 100 IP, 80 K (7.20 K/9), 1.41 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 8-12, 4.48 ERA, 151 IP, 138 K (8.23 K/9), 1.45 WHIP

• Clay Buchholz (RHP) Boston Red Sox – After making a name for himself in Boston after throwing a no-hitter in 2007, Buchholz has struggled to catch on as a consistent pitcher in the major leagues. In his minor league career, Buchholz has sported 2.42 career ERA and has top-of-the-rotation stuff. Buchholz has found his name in trade rumors the past few seasons as the Red Sox have been unable to find a spot for him in their rotation and realize the value he represents to other teams. Buchholz is expected to finally get his chance to stick in the Red Sox rotation this season and impressed last September by going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 6 starts. The time is now for Buchholz in Boston and he will be a popular sleeper candidate for fantasy owners this season. Look for him to post double-digit wins with the Red Sox defense behind him and also provide a solid ERA.

Bill James Projection: 10-8, 3.91 ERA, 161 IP, 155 K (8.66 K/9), 1.32 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 10-9, 3.96 ERA, 165 IP, 156 K (8.51 K/9), 1.29 WHIP

• Austin Jackson (OF) Detroit Tigers – The key player coming back to the Tigers in the off season trade of Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, finds himself tentatively penciled in as the starting center fielder in Detroit this season. The 23 year-old CF comes to Detroit as a highly-touted prospect and has ironically drawn comparisons to the man he was traded for in Granderson. While his power hasn’t quite developed yet, Jackson has hit for a solid AVG and has shown an ability to steal some bases as he has averaged 28 SB in 4 seasons in the minors. With the acquisition of Johnny Damon, Jackson will no longer be expected to bat leadoff in the Tigers lineup and should be much more comfortable batting lower in the lineup, most likely in the 9 hole. While fantasy owners shoudn’t expect a power boost from Jackson this season, he could be a sleeper option for runs and SB. Keeper league owners especially should keep an eye on Jackson’s progress this spring.

Bill James Projection: .294 AVG, 4 HR, 37 RBI, 40 Runs, 14 SB, .767 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .271 AVG, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 55 Runs, 15 SB, .741 OPS

• Francisco Liriano (LHP) Minnesota Twins – Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006 with a 12-3 record along with a 2.16 ERA. After the 2006 season, Liriano was considered one of the bright young pitching stars in the league and was thought to be a bona-fide ace in the American League for years to come. However, Liriano developed arm problems that eventually led to Tommy John surgery in the off season of 2006. Since then Liriano hasn’t been the same pitcher and is still looking to find the success he had in his rookie season. Last season, in particular, was especially unkind to Liriano as he battled control issues and finished with an awful 5.80 ERA. This off season, Liriano went to the Dominican Winter League and was impressive in 7 starts posting a 3-1 record to go along with 0.49 ERA and 47:5 K/BB ratio. This spring, the Twins have been encouraged with Liriano’s progress and his first spring start was a success as he tossed 2 scoreless frames and had good velocity on his pitches. Liriano is in competition for the 5th spot in Twins rotation and should win the job with a successful spring. While Liriano most likely will never be the pitcher he was in his rookie season, he still has plenty of upside and will be another year removed from Tommy John surgery. Fantasy owners could find a sleeper in Liriano this season as he has the ability to produce high strikeout totals and if healthy can produce double digit wins behind a strong Twins offense.

Bill James Projection: 8-6, 3.67 ERA, 125 IP, 128 K (9.22 K/9), 1.30 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 8-7, 3.80 ERA, 117 IP, 110 K (8.46 K/9), 1.33 WHIP

• Rajai Davis (OF) Oakland Athletics – Rajai Davis was a solid AL-only option for SB last season, but he didn’t receive enough playing time to be a quality mixed league option for fantasy owners. However, Davis received regular playing time in the second half of last season and hit .325 with 30 SB and 46 runs. Davis second half stats make him a viable sleeper in mixed leagues this year as he should find regular playing time in Oakland this season, despite playing in a crowded outfield. He should provide good run totals and has the ability to steal 50+ bases with a full season of at-bats. Davis is definately an intriguing late round pickup for fantasy owners craving for steals.

Bill James Projection: .284 AVG, 4 HR, 44 RBI, 74 Runs, 50 SB, .718 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .280 AVG, 4 HR, 52 RBI, 79 Runs, 46 SB, .708 OPS

• David Price (LHP) Tampa Bay Rays – The No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft excited fantasy owners going into 2009 as he was impressive in the Rays 2008 postseason run to the World Series. However, Price struggled last year with his command and didn’t show progress until August and September. Despite displaying inconsistency common from young pitchers, Price hasn’t shown anything to dispute the fact that he will fail to live up to his potential. Price possesses dominating stuff and is thinking big for this season as he desires to be the ace of the Rays impressive young staff. Look for Price to improve on his command and become a more consistent pitcher this season. While he might not be considered a true sleeper due to his draft status and potential, fantasy owners could get Price at a very reasonable price this year as some fantasy owners will be skeptical of Price progress this season.

Bill James Projection: 10-10, 4.30 ERA, 180 IP, 157 K (7.85 K/9), 1.36 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 11-9, 4.18 ERA, 184 IP, 153 K (7.48 K/9), 1.33 WHIP

• Julio Borbon (OF) Texas Rangers – Borbon is a popular sleeper pick in the AL this year as he, like Rajai Davis, should be a great source for runs and SB this season. After batting .310 in the minors last season, Borbon built off that success by hitting .312 in 157 AB with the big league club. However, Borbon’s greatest attribute is his speed and 19 SB during his brief tenure with the Rangers last season proves he has the ability to be a big threat on the basepaths. Borbon is penciled in as both the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the Rangers and should provide a .300 AVG, 40+ steals, and plenty of runs in a stacked Rangers lineup. Borbon probably won’t last as long as some of the names on this list as he has received plenty of attention from fantasy experts this off season excited by his potential.

Bill James Projection: .308 AVG, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 85 Runs, 42 SB, .762 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .293 AVG, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 84 Runs, 38 SB, .755 OPS

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Up Next: NL Sleepers

]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-preview-al-sleeper-candidates/feed 0 http://www.amateurgm.com/2010-top-prospects-analysis http://www.amateurgm.com/2010-top-prospects-analysis#comments Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:23:58 +0000 Ryan Oleniczak http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=944 As the Hot Stove season starts to come to an end with pitchers and catchers due to report to camp within a few weeks, it is now time to start taking a look at the 2010 season. Last week, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com and Keith Law of ESPN.com released their top prospects list for the 2010 season. Both Mayo and Law do a great job of talking to scouts and team personnel to compile their lists. Many prospects find their names on both lists, however, Mayo and Law present contrasting analysis of their top 10 prospects. Here is a breakdown of Mayo’s list.

MLB.com’s 2010 Top 10 Prospects

1. Jason Heyward (OF) Atlanta Braves - The 20-year old outfielder is a rare 5-tool talent who possesses power, average, speed, and a plus arm all from the left-hand side of the plate. Heyward was the 14th overall pick in the 2007 draft and was ranked as the No. 3 overall prospect in 2009. Heyward is expected to reach the majors in 2010 and is a possibility to break camp with the team. The future is bright for this prospect.

2. Stephen Strasburg (RHP) Washington Nationals – The No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 draft is arguably the most heralded pitching prospect since Mark Prior. In three years at San Diego St., Strasburg only allowed 144 hits in 243.1 IP along with 375 K and 50 BB (.797 WHIP). His fastball tops out in the triple digits and has a slider/curve breaking ball that is devastating on hitters. The Nationals are expected to take a cautious approach with Strasburg as he is deemed the future face of the franchise. Despite this cautious approach, it will be hard for the Nationals not to bring Strasburg to the majors at some point in 2010.

3. Mike Stanton (OF) Florida Marlins – Stanton was the 2nd round pick (76th overall) of the Marlins in 2007. The 20-year outfielder is considered to have the best power of any hitter in the minor leagues as his 67 HR in two minor league seasons will attest to that. Stanton is expected to patrol right field for the Marlins, possibly as soon as 2011. He is expected to play in Triple-A for 2010 with a September call-up to the big leagues a possibility.

4. Buster Posey (C) San Francisco Giants – The 5th overall pick of the 2008 draft made huge strides in 2009 as he made the jump from Class A all the way to a September call-up with the big league team. Posey threw out 46 % of potential basestealers in 2009 and has 20 HR potential at the plate. Posey is expected to get one more year of seasoning behind the plate with the return of Bengie Molina to San Francisco. His eye is on 2011 when he should be a cornerstone behind the plate for many years to come.

5. Brian Matusz (LHP) Baltimore Orioles – The No. 4 overall pick of the 2008 draft made his major league debut in 2009 as he made 8 starts with the Orioles last season. In those starts, Matusz went 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA in 44.2 IP. Matusz has drawn comparisons to fellow lefty Cliff Lee of the Seattle Mariners. He is expected to break camp with the Orioles as a member of their starting rotation and is considered a top-of-the-rotation starter in the future.

6. Desmond Jennings (OF) Tampa Bay Rays – The 10th round pick (289th overall) of the Rays in 2006 made arguably the biggest strides of any minor leaguer in 2009. Jennings didn’t find his name among the top prospects last season, but had an impressive ’09 season where he swiped 52 bases and had his first injury-free season of his minor league career. Jennings is projected to be a leadoff hitter in the majors and is expected to patrol center field in 2011 for the Rays.

7. Neftali Feliz (RHP) Texas Rangers – Acquired from the Braves in the Mark Teixeira trade in 2007, Feliz made some noise in 2009. In 31 IP out of the pen for the Rangers, Feliz had an impressive 1.74 ERA with 39 K and only 13 hits allowed. Feliz sports a fastball that reaches the triple digits and is simply overpowering at times. He is expected to be a setup man to closer Frank Francisco in 2010. Feliz projects as either a top-of-the-rotation starter or shutdown closer in his career. The difficulty for the Rangers is deciding which role suits him best.

8. Pedro Alvarez (3B) Pittsburgh Pirates – The 2nd overall pick in the 2008 draft had an impressive 27 HR last season in the minors. Alvarez is expected to be a middle-of-the order power threat in Pittsburgh who is known for his great plate discipline. The challenge for the Pirates is whether Alvarez has enough range to play third base in the majors or if he is better suited at first base. Either way, Alvarez is the top prospect in the Pirates organization and should arrive to the majors in 2011.

9. Justin Smoak (1B) Texas Rangers – The 11th overall pick of 2008 draft is the second Rangers prospect in the top 10. Smoak has scouts drooling with his power and average from both sides of the plates. The switch-hitter has drawn comparisons to former Rangers farmhand Mark Teixeira (1B) of the New York Yankees. He projects to be a middle-of-the-order threat from either first base or as a DH. The Rangers will be tempted to find Smoak a spot in 2010, but 2011 seems more likely for Smoak to find an everyday spot in the Rangers lineup.

10. Madison Bumgarner (LHP) San Francisco Giants – The 10th overall pick of the 2007 draft is the second Giant to find his name in the top 10. Bumgarner made his Major League debut in 2009 as he appeared in 4 games (1 start) and produced a 1.80 ERA in 10 IP along with 10 K. Bumgarner will compete for a spot in the starting rotation in camp and is expected to be a rotation staple with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain for years to come in San Francisco.

Tomorrow I will take a look at Keith Law’s Top 10 prospects and see how it stacks up to Mayo’s list. For a complete list of the top 50 prospects according to Mayo, please check out the link above.

Larry Stone of The Seattle Times

For Seattle, they continue their off season splurge with the acquisition of Bradley. The Mariners are now adding him to the likes of Chone Figgins (3B) and Cliff Lee (LHP), as they have put themselves in position to be the early front runners for the NL West crown. The Mariners hope that manager Don Wakamatsu can handle the enigmatic Bradley and motivate him to become the hitter he was with the Texas Rangers two years ago, where he led the AL in OBP. I think Seattle is taking a low risk gamble because Carlos Silva was a candidate to be released in Spring Training. I feel Bradley can thrive in a market like Seattle where he is away from the big market in Chicago.

For the Cubs, they get rid of a player they feel they had to get rid of. After suspending Bradley for the final two weeks of the season last season, it became apparent Bradley would be traded this off season. The team has been in a holding pattern all off season and were not willing to add new players until they finalized a trade for Bradley. Getting a player such as Silva back in the deal is very questionable. Silva was a workhorse type pitcher for the Minnesota Twins earlier in his career which led his big money contract with the Seattle Mariners. However, his time in Seattle has been disastrous as he went 4-15 with a 6.46 ERA in 2008 and 1-3 with a 8.60 ERA in only 8 games last season due to injury. I am just not sure what the Cubs are thinking of getting from Silva, but I am sure we will get an all positive spin from management on this one.

What do you think of this trade? Were the Cubs better off just releasing Bradley or should they have tried to salvage the relationship with him?

SI.com’s Jon Heyman

A trade of this magnitude is typically very hard to complete with three teams, especially with two former Cy Young winners involved in the deal. However, each team has seemed to make it work and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Mariners attempt to lock up Cliff Lee long-term because he is due to become a free agent after the upcoming season as well.

It’s no secret the Phillies have been interested in Halladay for quite some time as previously mentioned. It’s not often a pitcher of Halladay’s caliber becomes available in a trade before he hits the open market. Landing Halladay gives the Phillies an elite pitcher with a bulldog mentality who is a threat to pitch a complete game every time out. The Phillies have further set themselves up as the team to beat in the NL as they combine a great rotation with a dynamic offense.

As for the Mariners, this is another important piece in their quest to dethrone the Los Angeles Angels’ reign on the AL West. This trade gives them one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball with Felix Hernandez and Lee. The Mariners are putting together a pretty successful off season so far with this trade and the signing of Chone Figgins to play third base. The pressure is now on the Angels to make a big splash to combat the Mariners moves as they have lost both Figgins and John Lackey this off season. The Angels are reported to be on the verge of signing free agent Hideki Matsui( DH/OF).

It should be interesting to see what the Blue Jays receive in this deal. I would expect the quality of prospects to be pretty high as two aces have changed places in the deal. Andrew Swanson highlighted the task held in front of new Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos previously on the site.

Roy Halladay Update – Jordan Bastian of MLB.com says that trade discussions are ongoing for Roy Halladay with the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies the current leaders for Halladay. SI.com’s Tom Verducci sources tell him that the Phillies are “very aggressive” and even willing to find multiple teams to meet the Blue Jays asking price. The Phillies pursued Halladay last July but eventually landing Cliff Lee (LHP) before the trade deadline.

Mets Make Offers to Bay and Molina – Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports that the New York Mets made offers to free agents Jason Bay (OF) and Bengie Molina (C) on Thursday. The Mets offer to Jason Bay is rumored to be for 4 years and between $60 and $65 million, which is pretty close to the Red Sox’s initial offer to Bay earlier this offseason that was rejected. Both players would fill glaring holes in the Mets’ lineup, regardless, I doubt the Mets sign Bay, especially if the rumored offer is true.

Yankees Negotiating with Damon – The New York Yankees have begun contract discussions with free agent Johnny Damon (OF) according to ESPN.com. The Yankees are at a position of strength in their negotiations with Damon after acquiring Curtis Granderson earlier in the week. Damon is rumored to be asking for a 4-year deal worth $13 million a year. There is no way Damon will get that kind of contract offer from the Yankees and will have to look elsewhere with those demands. Ultimately,  I see the Yankees bringing back Damon on a two-year deal to be their left fielder.

White Sox Covet Brett Gardner? – Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun Times wrote in his daily blog that the Chicago White Sox covet Yankees center fielder Brett Gardner. The Sox are looking for someone to lead off next season and might feel Gardner would be a good fit in that spot. The Yankees have plenty of decisions looming this off season in regards to their outfield situation. The Yankees must decide whether to bring back free agents Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon along with deciding what to do with center fielders Melky Cabrera and Gardner now that Curtis Granderson is with the team.

Giants Make Offer to DeRosa? – San Francisco Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly believes the Giants have sent multiple offers to current free agents with the versatile Mark DeRosa (IF/OF) believed to be one of the players involved. Yahoo Sports Steve Henson tweeted that DeRosa is the teams top target at third base and that his versatility would allow them to either keep Pablo Sandoval at third or allow him to move across the diamond to first base. As a Cubs fan, I grew to love the way DeRosa  plays the game, but most importantly how he respects the game. DeRosa is a true class act and the Giants would be smart to add a player of DeRosa’s caliber to their team.

Pedro Feliz to the Astros – The Houston Astros added their third free agent of the meetings by signing Pedro Feliz (3B) to a 1-year deal worth $4.5 million. Feliz is a great defender and has provided solid run production throughout his career. The signing of Feliz almost certainly means the end of free agent Miguel Tejada’s tenure in Houston.

Rockies Locking Up Their Backstops – MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports that the Colorado Rockies are close to signing both of their catchers to new deals. Both Chris Iannetta and Yorvit Torrealba are close to signing three and two-year deals respectively with the Rockies. Both players shared the catching duties in Colorado last season for the NL Wild Card winners.

Barry Bonds Calls It A Career – According to Barry Bonds’ agent Jeff Borris, the all-time home run leader is calling it a career due to not receiving any offers to play within the past few offseasons. Borris describes it as “an unfortunate ending to a storied career”. Teams were obviously scared of signing Bonds to a contract due to obvious media attention surrounding steroids. It’s good to see baseball slowly getting away from the steroids issue and getting back to what has made the game so great in the first place. Now if only the Cardinals could get new hitting coach Mark McGwire to talk we would really be getting somewhere.

So there you have it. Another Winter Meetings is in the books and as expected activity was slower than past years. ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark has a great article up on the Winter Meetings and where he expects a lot of the big names in this offseason’s rumor mill to go from here. We are slowly starting to see a change in the economics of baseball as a lot of teams are leery of shelling out big money to free agents. Like last year, it won’t be strange to see a lot of players signing in late January and early February as the market dictates their value. Do you feel this is a good thing for baseball? Do you think this will start to be the norm in baseball or will teams go back to their foolish spending once the economy returns to normal?