• Brandon Wood (3B) Los Angeles Angels – The former first round pick of the Angels in 2003, is finally ready to receive regular playing time in the majors as the Angels are counting on Wood to be their everyday third basemen in 2010.  Since hitting 43 HR in the minors in 2005 and being awarded the MiLB.com’s Offensive Player of the Year Award that same season, Wood has been one of the top prospects in not only the Angels system, but in all of baseball. Despite proving he can hit in the minor leagues (39 HR per 162 Triple-A games), Wood has failed to translate those numbers in his 224 MLB at-bats over the past three seasons. However, Wood is still only 25 years old and has yet to receive regular at-bats at the big league level. Now with Chone Figgins departure to Seattle, Wood has the chance to man the hot corner for the Angels for many years. The Angels patience in Wood is similar to their patience with 1B Kendry Morales, who broke out last season after receiving his first chance at everyday playing time. Keeper league fantasy owners should especially keep an eye on Wood as he could be a steal in the late rounds with his great HR potential.

CHONE Projection: .246 AVG, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 58 Runs, .762 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .248 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 69 Runs, .764 OPS

• Brian Matusz (LHP) Baltimore Orioles – The No. 4 overall pick of the 2008 draft has gone into the 2010 season as the No. 5 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com. Matusz already made it to the big leagues in 2009 as he struggled in his first 3 starts before settling in his last 5 starts to finish with a 5-2 record along with a respectable 4.63 ERA in 44.2 IP. Matusz has drawn comparisons to former AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and fellow lefty Cole Hamels and is expected to break Orioles camp as a member of their starting rotation. Matusz sports a fastball that reaches 94 MPH and has both a slider and curveball with great movement. While the projections for this season for the 23 year old lefty aren’t too kind, Matusz has already got a taste of the big leagues and has the element of surprise as he is expected to be the future ace of the Orioles staff. If nothing else, Matusz deserves a look as a late round flier in mixed leagues.

CHONE Projection: 5-6, 4.59 ERA, 100 IP, 80 K (7.20 K/9), 1.41 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 8-12, 4.48 ERA, 151 IP, 138 K (8.23 K/9), 1.45 WHIP

• Clay Buchholz (RHP) Boston Red Sox – After making a name for himself in Boston after throwing a no-hitter in 2007, Buchholz has struggled to catch on as a consistent pitcher in the major leagues. In his minor league career, Buchholz has sported 2.42 career ERA and has top-of-the-rotation stuff. Buchholz has found his name in trade rumors the past few seasons as the Red Sox have been unable to find a spot for him in their rotation and realize the value he represents to other teams. Buchholz is expected to finally get his chance to stick in the Red Sox rotation this season and impressed last September by going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 6 starts. The time is now for Buchholz in Boston and he will be a popular sleeper candidate for fantasy owners this season. Look for him to post double-digit wins with the Red Sox defense behind him and also provide a solid ERA.

Bill James Projection: 10-8, 3.91 ERA, 161 IP, 155 K (8.66 K/9), 1.32 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 10-9, 3.96 ERA, 165 IP, 156 K (8.51 K/9), 1.29 WHIP

• Austin Jackson (OF) Detroit Tigers – The key player coming back to the Tigers in the off season trade of Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, finds himself tentatively penciled in as the starting center fielder in Detroit this season. The 23 year-old CF comes to Detroit as a highly-touted prospect and has ironically drawn comparisons to the man he was traded for in Granderson. While his power hasn’t quite developed yet, Jackson has hit for a solid AVG and has shown an ability to steal some bases as he has averaged 28 SB in 4 seasons in the minors. With the acquisition of Johnny Damon, Jackson will no longer be expected to bat leadoff in the Tigers lineup and should be much more comfortable batting lower in the lineup, most likely in the 9 hole. While fantasy owners shoudn’t expect a power boost from Jackson this season, he could be a sleeper option for runs and SB. Keeper league owners especially should keep an eye on Jackson’s progress this spring.

Bill James Projection: .294 AVG, 4 HR, 37 RBI, 40 Runs, 14 SB, .767 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .271 AVG, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 55 Runs, 15 SB, .741 OPS

• Francisco Liriano (LHP) Minnesota Twins – Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006 with a 12-3 record along with a 2.16 ERA. After the 2006 season, Liriano was considered one of the bright young pitching stars in the league and was thought to be a bona-fide ace in the American League for years to come. However, Liriano developed arm problems that eventually led to Tommy John surgery in the off season of 2006. Since then Liriano hasn’t been the same pitcher and is still looking to find the success he had in his rookie season. Last season, in particular, was especially unkind to Liriano as he battled control issues and finished with an awful 5.80 ERA. This off season, Liriano went to the Dominican Winter League and was impressive in 7 starts posting a 3-1 record to go along with 0.49 ERA and 47:5 K/BB ratio. This spring, the Twins have been encouraged with Liriano’s progress and his first spring start was a success as he tossed 2 scoreless frames and had good velocity on his pitches. Liriano is in competition for the 5th spot in Twins rotation and should win the job with a successful spring. While Liriano most likely will never be the pitcher he was in his rookie season, he still has plenty of upside and will be another year removed from Tommy John surgery. Fantasy owners could find a sleeper in Liriano this season as he has the ability to produce high strikeout totals and if healthy can produce double digit wins behind a strong Twins offense.

Bill James Projection: 8-6, 3.67 ERA, 125 IP, 128 K (9.22 K/9), 1.30 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 8-7, 3.80 ERA, 117 IP, 110 K (8.46 K/9), 1.33 WHIP

• Rajai Davis (OF) Oakland Athletics – Rajai Davis was a solid AL-only option for SB last season, but he didn’t receive enough playing time to be a quality mixed league option for fantasy owners. However, Davis received regular playing time in the second half of last season and hit .325 with 30 SB and 46 runs. Davis second half stats make him a viable sleeper in mixed leagues this year as he should find regular playing time in Oakland this season, despite playing in a crowded outfield. He should provide good run totals and has the ability to steal 50+ bases with a full season of at-bats. Davis is definately an intriguing late round pickup for fantasy owners craving for steals.

Bill James Projection: .284 AVG, 4 HR, 44 RBI, 74 Runs, 50 SB, .718 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .280 AVG, 4 HR, 52 RBI, 79 Runs, 46 SB, .708 OPS

• David Price (LHP) Tampa Bay Rays – The No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft excited fantasy owners going into 2009 as he was impressive in the Rays 2008 postseason run to the World Series. However, Price struggled last year with his command and didn’t show progress until August and September. Despite displaying inconsistency common from young pitchers, Price hasn’t shown anything to dispute the fact that he will fail to live up to his potential. Price possesses dominating stuff and is thinking big for this season as he desires to be the ace of the Rays impressive young staff. Look for Price to improve on his command and become a more consistent pitcher this season. While he might not be considered a true sleeper due to his draft status and potential, fantasy owners could get Price at a very reasonable price this year as some fantasy owners will be skeptical of Price progress this season.

Bill James Projection: 10-10, 4.30 ERA, 180 IP, 157 K (7.85 K/9), 1.36 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 11-9, 4.18 ERA, 184 IP, 153 K (7.48 K/9), 1.33 WHIP

• Julio Borbon (OF) Texas Rangers – Borbon is a popular sleeper pick in the AL this year as he, like Rajai Davis, should be a great source for runs and SB this season. After batting .310 in the minors last season, Borbon built off that success by hitting .312 in 157 AB with the big league club. However, Borbon’s greatest attribute is his speed and 19 SB during his brief tenure with the Rangers last season proves he has the ability to be a big threat on the basepaths. Borbon is penciled in as both the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the Rangers and should provide a .300 AVG, 40+ steals, and plenty of runs in a stacked Rangers lineup. Borbon probably won’t last as long as some of the names on this list as he has received plenty of attention from fantasy experts this off season excited by his potential.

Bill James Projection: .308 AVG, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 85 Runs, 42 SB, .762 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .293 AVG, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 84 Runs, 38 SB, .755 OPS

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]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-preview-al-sleeper-candidates/feed 0 http://www.amateurgm.com/pitching-showdown-top-rotation-in-the-al-central http://www.amateurgm.com/pitching-showdown-top-rotation-in-the-al-central#comments Wed, 03 Mar 2010 17:53:22 +0000 Andrew Swanson http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=1129 The American League Central Division has always been an enigma. There never seems to be a dominant team that can run away with the division title. The Twins put together a consistent product but they aren’t guaranteed to win every year like the Yankees. The Royals are trying to keep their heads above water and the Indians are going through a swoon after being highly competitive for a number of years. So who among these teams has the best rotation for the asking price?

Minnesota Twins: The Twinkees are always competitive. They have a very regimented process to move their minor leaguers up to the majors, requiring them to complete specific tasks and to do them consistently. Their owner, James Pohlad, is actually the second richest owner in the majors with a net worth of $3.6 billion. It will also be interesting to see how the staff deals with having to pitch outside in early spring and late fall now that they don’t have the comforts of the Metrodome. This new stadium could save them a lot of hits that use to skip through the infield on the AstroTurf.  The Twins rotation has a potential price tag of $12.6 dollars for 2010.

• Scott Baker: Baker doesn’t have overpowering stuff but is extremely accurate. At the beginning of the ’09 season he struggled but he turned things around to compile his best overall season yet. He is 28 years old and entering the prime of his career. He threw for a 4.37 ERA, 162 K’s, 200 IP and 48 walks. He will earn $3 million in 2010.
• Kevin Slowey: Slowey is another solid middle of the rotation guy that the Twins seem to put out on the field every year. He lost some time due to wrist surgery last season but is expected to be fully healthy to start the year. He posted a 4.86 ERA, 75 K’s, 90.2 IP and 15 walks last year. He will earn near near the minimum in 2010.
• Carl Pavano: Pavano has solid stuff and he made a killing at the Yankees expense in 2005. He then proceeded to rarely pitch the next three seasons while raking in the dough. His numbers have never been stellar but there is a ton of potential there. He threw for a 5.10 ERA, 147 K’s, 199.1 IP and 39 BB. He will make $7 million this season.
• Nick Blackburn: Blackburn is a solid back of the rotation starter. He will eat innings for you and will keep you in the game. He isn’t flashy and will never have good strikeout numbers. He pitched for a 4.03 ERA, 98 K’s, 205.2 IP and 41 walks. He will earn near the minimum.
• Brian Duensing: Duensing will be in competition for the 5th starter position this season in spring training. He posted good numbers over the 9 games he started last year. He threw for a 3.64 ERA, 53 K’s, 84 IP and 31 walks. He will earn the minimum this season.
• Francisco Liriano: Liriano has been a source of many headaches in the Twin Cities over the past few seasons. He burst on to the scene in 2006 with Cy Young numbers only to have injury issues and then control problems in subsequent seasons. He needs to prove to Ron Gardenhire that he can consistently throw strikes to earn the fifth starter position this year. He will make $1.6 million in 2010.

Detroit Tigers: I personally believe the Tigers are in a transition phase this season. They seem to be spending money this year to compete but a lot of other money and dead weight will be coming off the books this fall. The Tigers do have a lot of young talent going for them which is a definite plus. Injuries as always will be a key factor with Tigers and staying competitive in 2010. The Tigers have a potential rotation cost of anywhere between $20.75 million to $41.75 million depending on who earns spots at the back end of the rotation. I think they will end up being closer to the $20 million mark then $40 million.

• Justin Verlander: The Tigers just resigned Verlander to a 5-year $80 million deal. He is one of the best and brightest pitchers around. He will be the anchor of the Tigers staff for years to come. He threw for a 3.45 ERA, 269 K’s, 240 IP and 63 BB. He will earn $6.75 million in 2010.
• Rick Porcello: Porcello turn in a great year last season and made a very strong push for rookie of the year. He didn’t display much strike out potential but he has plenty of room to grow in the future. At the young age of 21 the Tigers need to make sure they don’t over work this promising arm. He threw for a 3.96 ERA, 89 K’s, 170.2 IP and 52 BB. He will earn near the minimum.
• Max Scherzer: Scherzer is another very talented young arm in the Tigers’ rotation. He came over in a trade this offseason so we will have to see how he adjusts to the American League. His pitching motion can make you nervous at the potential for injury but if he stays healthy he has the potential to be a star in the future. He threw for a 4.12 ERA, 174 K’s, 170.1 IP and 63 BB. He will earn near the minimum.
• Jeremy Bonderman: Bonderman has provided the Tigers’ faithful with a lot of disappointment. He has good stuff but it has never seemed to translate into really good major league success. He has battled a lot of injuries over this career and has yet to post an ERA under 4.08. He will need to prove himself worthy this year as his contract is expiring at the end of the season. He missed a majority of the 2009 season and threw for a 8.71 ERA, 5 K’s, 10.1 IP and 8 walks. He will make $12.5 million in 2010.
• Armando Galarraga: After a strong rookie season Galarraga had himself a sophomore slump last season. He deserves the benefit of the doubt and will most likely contend for a rotation spot after losing his spot at the end of the 2009 season. He threw for a 5.64 ERA, 95 K’s, 143.2 IP and 67 walks. He will earn near the minimum.
• Nate Robertson: Robertson is another contract that the Tigers will be glad to take off the books at the end of the season. He showed potential and was a great innings eater but has since been competing for the 5th spot in the rotation for the past 2 years. He posted a 5.44 ERA, 35 K’s, 49.2 IP, 28 walks and only started 6 games. He makes $10 million in 2010.
• Dontrelle Willis: Uh… yeah well most of you know the disaster Willis has been for the Tigers. He can not seem to throw a strike to save his life. I doubt he will earn the 5th starter spot but he will be in consideration during spring training. In 7 starts he threw for a 7.49 ERA, 17 K’s, 33.2 IP and 28 BB. He will make $12 million in 2010.

Chicago White Sox: The White Sox made an effort to change organizational direction this season. They shifted from an offensive-based team to a more well rounded defense and speed-based team. While the majority of their starters are the same, the key addition of Jake Peavy has set the White Sox up with a bonafide ace which they seemed to be lacking. Kenny Williams has had great success in building their rotation threw trading away prospects and gaining quality players in return. On paper they seem to be the best and most well rounded rotation in the division. However are they being thrifty enough to win the best rotation in the AL Central? They are currently shelling out $37.2 million for their hurlers in 2010.

• Mark Buehrle: There are not many sure things when it comes to baseball but Buehrle is a close as it gets. He is a finesse pitcher through and through. He has thrown over 200 innings in each of his 9 seasons as a full time starter. Last season he threw for a 3.84 ERA, 105 K’s, 213.1 IP and 45 BB. He will earn $14 million in 2010.
• Jake Peavy: Peavy is top tier starter no matter what league he is pitching in. He has electric stuff and would be the ace on anyone’s staff. He does have an injury history but nothing too serious so far. Last season he threw for a 3.45 ERA, 110 K’s, 101.2 and 34 walks. He earns $15 million in 2010.
• Gavin Floyd: After struggling with control problems for a long time Floyd righted the ship in the 2008 season with the White Sox and seem to continue this trend last season. He isn’t the ace people originally thought he would be when first drafted but he is a strong starter and is a great option to have in the middle to back of your rotation. He threw for a 4.06 ERA, 163 K’s, 193 IP and 59 BB. He earns $2.75 million.
• John Danks: Danks is a solid middle of the rotation option. While he isn’t a flame thrower he gets his fair share of strike outs. He is young and looks to improve on his numbers from last season. He pitched for a 3.77 ERA, 149 K’s, 200.1 IP, 73 walks. He will earn $3.45 million in 2010.
• Freddy Garcia: Garcia is a big question mark. He performed well at the end of last season but has suffered from a shoulder injury for the past two years. He will be competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. He threw for a 4.34 ERA, 37 K’s, 56 IP and 12 walks. He will make up to $2 million next season if he hits all his performance bonuses.
• Daniel Hudson: Hudson rocketed up through the White Sox minor league system last season pitching at every single level within the organization. He also had success at every single level. He will give Freddy Garcia some stiff competition in spring training for the 5th starter spot. Hudson threw for a 3.38 ERA, 14 K’s, 18.2 IP and 9 walks. He will make the minimum.

Kansas City Royals: The Royals have been in the cellar of the AL Central for quite a while. However, there is a bright future ahead of them if all their stars play to their potential and if they can hold on to them for a decent amount of time before their contracts become too expensive for them to sustain. The rotation is very promising and is finally able to keep the Royals semi competitive with their more talented competitors. The two biggest questions they have are how effective will the back end of their rotation be and can Gil Meche return to form? They are spending $25.11 million for their starters in 2010.

• Zack Greinke: Greinke is arguably the best pitcher in the AL Central. He won the AL Cy Young award last season by posting a 2.16 ERA, 242 K’s, 229.1 IP and 51 walks. He will be the force to contend with in KC for years to come and the Royals fans are excited. He will earn $7.25 million in 2010.
• Gil Meche: Meche was a surprise signing a few years ago by the Royals coming over from the Mariners and he has anchored their rotation well. Last season his numbers slipped but he is still the solid number 2 in their rotation. He threw for a 5.09 ERA 95 K’s, 129 IP and 58 walks. He will earn $12 million in 2010.
• Luke Hochevar: Hochevar is the definition of diamond in the rough. He has great potential as the top pick in the 2008 draft and looks to improve upon his performance last season. It was feast or famine last season for Hochevar, who permitted at least six earned runs in nine starts and also held the opposition to two earned runs or fewer in eight outings. He threw for a 6.55 ERA, 106 K’s, 143 IP and 46 walks. He makes $1.76 million in 2010.
• Kyle Davies: Davies saved his best for last in 2009, going 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA over his final four starts of the campaign. The problem is he also enjoyed a strong finish to ’08 by going 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA after the start of September, and he hasn’t been able to capture that form in the other five months of the season. He threw for a 5.27 ERA, 86 K’s, 123 IP and 66 BB. He earns $1.8 million.
• Brian Bannister: Bannister is a decent option at the end of the Royals rotation. He doesn’t have great stuff but what he does have he makes good use of. He kept the Royals in games when he pitched and has a tendency to get on a roll. He posted a 4.73 ERA, 98 K’s, 154 IP and 50 walks. He earns $2.3 million in 2010.
• Robinson Tejeda: Tejeda worked the majority of last season out of the bullpen but was given the chance to start in September and never looked back going 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 9.09 K/9 ratio in six outings. He will probably be given a long look in spring training but we are not sure how the Royals plan on utilizing him. He threw for 3.54 ERA, 87 K’s, 73.2 IP and 50 BB. He earns $950 thousand in 2010.

Cleveland Indians: The Indians look to be in a rough spot coming into the 2010 season. There doesn’t seem to be any super strong pitchers in their rotation and there are a ton of question marks toward the back end. They traded away several of their aces in Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia over last few seasons and they will be looking to see if anyone can step up into that open role. Manny Acta will have his work cut out for him this spring training as he tries to piece together a lot of raw young pitchers into a working, viable rotation. They are paying $17.4 million for their starting pitchers in 2010.

• Jake Westbrook: Westbrook last pitched for the Indians in June of 2008 before having Tommy John surgery. He will be the defacto ace of the staff in 2009. In his last full season (2007) he posted a 4.32 ERA, 93 K’s, 152 IP and 55 walks. He will make $11 million in 2010.
• Fausto Carmona: Carmona is displayed his potential in 2007 winning 19 games but he imploded and has not been able to find that success again so far. He has struggled mightily with his control. He is young and still has time to right the ship but he can’t be counted on to be a steady contributor. He threw for a 6.32 ERA, 79 K’s, 125.1 IP and 70 walks. He will make $4.9 million.
• Justin Masterson: Masterson has spent the majority of his career in the bullpen. He is predominately a two pitch pitcher which could limit his effectiveness in the future but he has good velocity and good bite on his slider. He will look to solidify a position in the rotation this year. He threw for a 4.52 era, 119 K’s, 129.1 IP and 60 walks. He will earn near the minimum.
• David Huff: Huff struggled last season but left a positive impression at the end going 4-1 over his last 5 starts. He will look to improve on his rookie performance and has had a good track record at every level he has played. Huff threw for a 5.61 ERA, 65 K’s, 128.1 IP and 41 BB. He earns the minimum.
• Aaron Laffey: Laffey is a finesse pitcher who tops out around 87 mph on his fastball. He has proven that he can get guys out but needs to be very consistent. He is young like most of his fellow starters and looks to carve a niche for himself. He threw for 4.44 ERA, 59 K’s, 121.2 IP and 57 walks. He will earn the minimum.
• Jeremy Sowers: Sowers is also a soft tosser who doesn’t seem to be able to get outs as consistently as his teammate Laffey. He threw for 5.25 ERA, 51 K’s, 123.1 IP and 52 walks. He earns near the minimum.
• Carlos Carrasco: Carrasco was the key player in the Cliff Lee deal from the Phillies. He is armed with a lively mid-90s fastball, a changeup and a curve, the key for him has been consistency, and he’s generally taken a little time to adapt to each level. He threw for a 8.87 ERA, 11 K’s, 22.1 IP and 11 BB. He will earn the minimum.

There is a wide range of talent being offered in the starting rotations for the AL Central. The Chicago White Sox have the best overall talent on their roster and seem to have the most solidified rotation coming into spring training. However, they have the highest price tag associated with their talent. That is why I have to give my vote to the Twins. They may not have the best talent on their team, but for what they are paying them, they have the most potential and the best cost efficiency.