Alex Childers (Carl Crawford) – Four years $66 million; Seven years $120 million.  No, that’s not the Saudi Prince’s inheritance; those are the respective pay days that Jason Bay and Matt Holliday earned this year. Carl Crawford has the potential to earn an equivalent payday if he can perform like he has in the past.  With the Yankees showing interest, Crawford is prepared for a career year and a huge pay day. Last season Crawford produced his typical stat line .305/.364/.452 (BA/OBP/SLG) 60 SB, 15 HR, 68 RBI and 96 R. At the age of 28, Crawford is in his prime and has exhibited great consistency as a legitimate five-tool player over his eight seasons at the Major League level. His 362 career SB rank him 4^th on the active list and he is the youngest player in the top 10.

Sure Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun are flashy picks, but neither one has a proven track record. Braun broke into the league in 2007 and Kemp in 2006, mere babies. The CHONE Projection has Ryan Braun hitting .309/.372/.568 with 99 RBI, 33 HR, and 16 SB. CHONE projects Matt Kemp as .305/.364/.501 with 82 RBI, 20 HR, and 27 SB. Not much more impressive than Crawford, and what Crawford lacks in power he more than makes up for in speed. A potentially even bigger upside to taking Crawford is his average draft position. Both Braun and Kemp, on average, went in the top 8 of yahoo fantasy drafts, Crawford on the other hand wasn’t snatched up until the 22^nd pick. If you can select power with your first overall selection, chances are Crawford’s consistency and speed will still be waiting for you well after the overvalued Kemp and Braun are gone.

Braun and Kemp are infants; Grady and Holliday are injuries waiting to happen.  Take the guy that has the most to play for, the guy that has been consistent, and the guy that is a legitimate five-tool player. If you are lucky, you may even be able to steal him in the second round. Stealing, now that’s something Crawford is familiar with.

Bryce Carlson (Matt Holliday) – Whoever said that Matt Holliday’s offensive numbers were a product of the thin mountain air at Coors Field might have been right… if they only looked at the first two thirds of last season while he played for the Oakland Athletics. I’m not sure what the elevation difference is between Oakland and St. Louis, but Holliday proved that he is still a great offensive player last year in his 63 games as a Cardinal. Ok, so the elevation difference in 532 ft, but that is nothing when compared to the Mile High City of Denver.

Even with a poor start in Oakland last year, Holliday still finished the season with a .313 BA and 109 RBI. Don’t expect to see a major jump in his power numbers from last year (24 HR, .515 SLG) as these statistics have been declining since 2007. What can you expect from Holliday in 2010? He won’t hit 35 HR, but he will still have an average around .315, 100+ runs, 100+ RBI, and an OBP approaching .400. He might even steal a few bases for you… go figure.  Don’t be afraid to draft Holliday as a major player on your 2010 fantasy team. He is a top 5 outfielder who will put up a ton of offensive numbers. However, if your league carries a sliding into home statistic, you may need to rethink that…

Jon Heintzelman (Matt Kemp) – If Braun is the first OF off the board in your draft don’t sweat it. You’ll be in position to scoop up five-category roto-stud Matt Kemp as the next best OF option. Kemp has everything going for him to be worthy of a mid-first round pick in mixed league drafts. As I said in an earlier post, you want to invest early round picks in power/speed players with stable skills and high reliability. Kemp not only fits this profile, but he is also still growing into his power profile while entering his prime years (he’s only 26). His HR/fly ball rate has grown from 10% to 12% to 15% in the last three years while he’s maintained an elite >20% line drive rate. With Kemp you can take 30-100-30-100-.300 to the bank with a chance for more power growth to boot (35-120 possible). If you line up Kemp’s profile against the next best options at OF no one stacks up. Holliday can match Kemp’s power profile with half the SB, but don’t fall in love with his .350+ BA in St. Louis last season post trade, it was inflated by an obscenely high .391 BABIP. I know Crawford swiped 60 last season, but look at the second half drop off (40/20), and you’re giving up 30-50% in HR/RBI on top of it, no thanks. As for Grady, I love him, but given his injury history the past couple of years how can you rely on him with other high quality options out there. Investing in Kemp will provide happy fantasy returns, and you can take that to the bank!

Ryan Oleniczak (Grady Sizemore)

Dear Grady,

I have to convince the readers of amateurgm.com that you are still an elite fantasy outfielder and that last seasons injuries are in the past. I want to prove to them that you are better than Matt Kemp, Matt Holliday, and Carl Crawford. My hope is that you don’t cause pain again to the fantasy owners who took you in the first round of many drafts last season. You and I both know when you’re at the top of your game, you are arguably the best fantasy outfielder as you provide the coveted power-speed combo from the leadoff spot that all fantasy owners drool over. If you could add another Gold Glove to your collection that would be great, too. I mean Grady, I am sure you are a smart guy and know your production when you’re healthy, but let me refresh your memory. From 2005-2008 your season averages were quite impressive: 159 GP, .281 AVG, 26 HR, 81 RBI, 116 R, and 28 SB. If you could return to your 2008 numbers where you posted career highs in HR (33), RBI (90), and SB (38), you will make the fantasy owners who take you instead of Kemp and Holliday very happy as your overall production is quite comparable to those guys who are likely to be taken before you. If only you could convince your new manager Manny Acta to take you out of the leadoff spot, you might finally reach 100 RBI in a season. Don’t fret those injuries Grady, I am sure your doctors took care of you and you should be able to return to your habit of wreaking havoc on the basepaths and scoring runs. Consider me one of your biggest fans and believer that you can return to form this season. I know you have a chip on your shoulder and believe you can bounceback this season. So what do you say Grady? Let’s leave the other fantasy options in your rearview mirror and repay those of us that took you in the first round last year. Just one more thing Grady, do you think you could stop putting risque pictures of yourself on the internet?

Sincerely,

Ryan Oleniczak

Shapiro has had the role of general manager for the Indians going on nine seasons. He started with the Indians back in 1992 and has worked his way up to the top. Shapiro earn the “Executive of the Year” award in 2005 and 2007. Bud Selig also named him to the recently established “On-Field Matters” committee.

Antonetti first job in major league baseball was with the Montreal Expos. As assistant to Shapiro, Antonetti has worked very closely with the contract negotiations and he also oversees the farm system, professional scouting department, and statistical analysis systems.

The Indians are coming off a horrendous season in which they lost 97 games and tied the Kansas City Royals for last place in the AL Central division. Shapiro’s hand-picked manager Eric Wedge lost his job due to the poor performance of this team. However, there are some bright spots for the club. Grady Sizemore is a potential Comeback Player of the Year for the Indians after missing a large portion of the season due to injury. Shin-Soo Choo established himself as a very well-rounded outfielder hitting .300 with 20 home runs, 86 RBI, and 21 stolen bases.

Antonetti will definitely have his work cut out for him next off season.

• Daisuke Matsuzaka (RHP) Boston Red Sox – Last season was a miserable season for the former Japanese ace. Matsuzaka revealed this off season that he hid a groin injury, that he sustained in the World Baseball Classic, from the Red Sox last season. To compensate for his groin injury, Matsuzaka’s mechanics were altered which led to a shoulder injury that limited him to only 12 starts last season. He would finish the season with a miserable 4-6 record, along with a 5.76 ERA and 30 BB in only 59.1 IP. However, Matsuzaka showed some promise in 4 September starts when he went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA. This off season, Matsuzaka is committed to reaffirming the Red Sox’s trust in him and hopes to become the pitcher he was in 2008 when he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 29 starts. He is an ideal bounceback candidate in the AL this season and could be a middle to late round steal in fantasy drafts.

Bill James Projection: 12-10, 4.02 ERA, 195 IP, 184 K (8.49 K/9), 1.37 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 12-8, 3.79 ERA, 191 IP, 181 K (8.53 K/9), 1.31 WHIP

• Jake Peavy (RHP) Chicago White Sox – 2009 was a whirlwind season for Peavy as he dealt with persistent trade rumors as a member of the San Diego Padres and dealt with an ankle injury that limited him to 16 starts. After initially declining a trade to the White Sox earlier in the season, Peavy eventually accepted a trade to the White Sox before the trade deadline last July. Peavy made only 3 starts with the Sox last season as he spent most of his tenure with the team rehabbing his ankle injury. In those 3 starts, Peavy showed glimpses of a return to Cy Young form as he went 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 18 K in 20 IP. Critics of Peavy feel he is a beneficiary of pitching in a pitcher’s ballpark in San Diego and that his numbers will decline pitching in a more hitter-friendly ballpark in U.S. Cellular Field, along with the more potent AL lineups. However, Peavy has some of the best stuff in the game and has Cy Young credentials to go along with a bulldog mentality. Look for Peavy to rebound in a big way and re-establish himself as the ace of the White Sox and one of the elite starters in baseball.

Bill James Projection: 16-8, 3.18 ERA, 215 IP, 217 K (9.08 K/9), 1.16 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 16-10, 3.66 ERA, 203 IP, 211 K (9.35 K/9), 1.27 WHIP

• Grady Sizemore (OF) Cleveland Indians – Sizemore went into last season as one of the top fantasy outfielders in the game as he was coming off his first 30-30 season in 2008 ( 33 HR-38 SB). However, fantasy owners were disappointed last season as Sizemore was a victim of playing through some nagging injuries that cost him 56 games and hurt his production. Last September, Sizemore had surgeries on both his elbow and lower abdomen with the hope of a healthy and productive 2010 campaign. However, Sizemore’s off season got off to a rough start as some risque’ photos of himself made their way on the Internet. Sizemore is reportedly ready for Spring Training and eager to put the incident and his disappointing 2009 season to rest this season. Sizemore is still only 27 years old and has a chip on his shoulder to prove he is a star-in-the-making. Look  for him to rebound and put together at least a 20 HR-20 SB campaign. While he won’t be taken in the first round this year, he won’t last much longer after that as he excites fantasy owners with his rare combination of power and speed.

Bill James Projection: .272 AVG, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 101 Runs, 21 SB, .853 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .271 AVG, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 98 Runs, 25 SB, .851 OPS

• Ben Sheets (RHP) Oakland Athletics – Sheets has arguably the most to prove of any player on this list. After missing the entire 2009 season to a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, Sheets is looking to prove that he can put together a healthy campaign and return to his All-Star form. After holding a throwing session for multiple MLB scouts last month, Sheets impressed enough to receive a one-year deal worth $10 million plus incentives with the A’s. Sheets now finds himself pitching in one of best pitchers’ park in all of baseball in Oakland and will be counted on to be the ace of the staff. When healthy, Sheets provides great strikeout totals and a solid ERA for fantasy owners. His numbers should be solid pitching in Oakland and he could see a spike in fantasy value as a possible mid-season pickup for a contender at the trade deadline. However, many fantasy owners are wary of Sheets injury history,as they should be, and will be skeptical to use a top pick on the pitcher. However, Sheets should be rested after missing a full season and is expected to go full steam in Spring Training. Sheets has the potential to be an excellent value in the middle rounds as a No. 3 fantasy starter.

CHONE Projection: 7-6, 4.11 ERA, 114 IP, 81 K ( 6.39 K/9), 1.30 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 10-9, 3.52 ERA, 166 IP, 121 K (6.56 K/9), 1.26 WHIP

• B.J. Upton (OF) Tampa Bay Rays – After hitting 8 postseason HR in the Rays’ 2008 run to the World Series, fantasy owners were drooling at the thought of Upton becoming the next 30-30 man in baseball. However, Upton underwent off season surgery on his shoulder which caused him to develop some bad habits at the plate and altered his mechanics. Despite helping fantasy owners with 42 SB last season, Upton disappointed fantasy owners in every other major category as he finished with a .241 AVG, 11 HR, and 55 RBI in 144 games. According to Peter Gammons of MLB.com, Upton has been working hard this off season with Rays’ hitting coach Derek Shelton on getting comfortable at the plate and staying consistent in his approach. Upton is an ideal bounceback candidate in the AL as he is still only 25 years old and should be fully healed from his shoulder issues. A return to his 20 HR form in 2007 and 40 plus SB shouldn’t be far off. Fantasy owners might finally be pleased with what they see in B.J. Upton this season.

Bill James Projection: .266 AVG, 13 HR, 59 RBI, 81 Runs, 39 SB, .768 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .268 AVG, 14 HR, 71 RBI, 88 Runs, 40 SB, .789 OPS

• Josh Hamilton (OF) Texas Rangers – After bursting on the scene in 2008 with MVP-like numbers with a .304 AVG, 32 HR, and 130 RBI, Hamilton found the injury-bug  last season as he had two stints on the DL that limited him to 336 AB. The Rangers are looking to alleviate the strain on Hamilton’s body by moving him to left field this season with the hopes he can regain his form from 2008. Hamilton also has the luxury of hitting in a hitters’ park especially friendly on left-handed hitters. He will find himself in the middle of a potent lineup with Vladimir Guerrero as his protection, which should increase the number of quality pitches he will see. Hamilton is entering the prime of his career at 28 years old and should provide good power numbers for fantasy owners. While he might not reach his totals from 2008, Hamilton should provide 20-25 HR and 90-100 RBI in the Rangers lineup. He is a perfect buy-low candidate and should have a better season for fantasy owners this season.

Bill James Projection: .293 AVG, 23 HR, 91 RBI, 75 Runs, .860 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .291 AVG, 25 HR, 92 RBI, 77 Runs, .860 OPS

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Up Next: NL Bounceback Candidates

]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-previewal-bounceback-candidates/feed 5 http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-preview-nl-breakout-candidates http://www.amateurgm.com/fantasy-preview-nl-breakout-candidates#comments Fri, 12 Feb 2010 01:54:24 +0000 Ryan Oleniczak http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=1017 Yesterday, I took a look at some potential breakout candidates in the American League for 2010. Today, I want to focus on the National League, where the chances for some breakout performances are great. Last season, such names as Jayson Werth, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, and Adam Wainwright had breakout seasons that have their future fantasy owners excited for what they might bring to their teams this year. Here are some players who have the chance to breakout this season in the NL.

• Joey Votto (1B) Cincinnati Reds – The player who has arguably had the most success of any player on this list is the most likely candidate to have a breakthrough performance this season. Despite missing a month on the DL last season and battling a bout with depression, Votto finished in the top 5 in the NL in AVG, OBP, and Slugging %. He had only one month last season where he didn’t hit at least .320. Votto also hits in a very hitter friendly ballpark in Cincinnati, which should help his power numbers increase with a full season of at-bats. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Votto’s name in the top 5 rankings of all first basemen next season, as a 30 HR-100 RBI season could be in his sights.

Bill James Projection: .311 AVG, 27 HR, 90 RBI, 80 Runs, .947 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .313 AVG, 28 HR, 102 RBI, 92 Runs, .936 OPS

• Jay Bruce (OF) Cincinnati Reds – Another Reds player has a great chance of breaking out this season. The former No. 1 overall prospect in all of baseball has struggled living up to the hype since entering the league during the 2008 season. Last season was a nightmare for Bruce as he struggled to a .223 AVG and missed two months on the DL with a broken wrist. However, after returning from the DL, Bruce had a .326 AVG, 4 HR, and 17 RBI in only 46 at-bats. The 22 year-old right fielder is still very raw at the plate, but it’s no secret that Bruce possesses a great ability to knock the ball out of the ballpark. The Reds are banking on Bruce being completely healed from his wrist injury and building off his improvement at the plate after his return from the DL. Could this be the year Bruce quiets the critics and lives up to his hype?

Bill James Projection: .274 AVG, 38 HR, 95 RBI, 92 Runs, .877 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .268 AVG, 29 HR, 88 RBI, 79 Runs, .844 OPS

• Carlos Gonzalez (OF) Colorado Rockies – Gonzalez was originally a highly-touted prospect in the Diamondbacks organization before being traded to the Oakland A’s in the Dan Haren trade. Gonzalez made it to the big leagues with the A’s in 2008, but didn’t overly impress during his time with the club. The 24 year-old outfielder entered his third organization last off season when he was traded to the Rockies in the Matt Holliday trade to the A’s. Gonzalez excelled in Triple-A before receiving a promotion to the big league club in June. Gonzalez started to show flashes of his ability as he had a .320 AVG, 12 HR, and 11 SB in the second-half last season. The Rockies are expected to plug Gonzalez at the top of their lineup this season, possibly as the leadoff hitter where he hit .300 in that role. He possesses a solid power-speed combination and with regular at-bats in Coors Field could be a good option for 20 HR-20 SB this season.

Bill James Projection: .280 AVG, 19 HR, 73 RBI, 18 SB, 78 Runs, .819 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .277 AVG, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 20 SB, 80 Runs, .820 OPS

• Andrew McCutchen (OF) Pittsburgh Pirates – While not much has gone right on the field for the Pirates in over 15 years, the team has to be excited about McCutchen and the possibility that they have found a cornerstone player to build around. Between Triple-A and the majors, McCutchen hit 16 HR and stole 32 bases from the leadoff spot last season. In 108 games in the majors, he led all rookies in extra-base hits with 47 and improved his OBP and run totals every month. McCutchen displayed a great knack for getting on base and has impressive speed from the leadoff spot. While he possesses 20 HR-40 SB potential don’t expect that from McCutchen yet. However, McCutchen displays a skill set similar to Grady Sizemore and has the chance to become one of the premier leadoff hitters in the game this season.

Bill James Projection: .281 AVG, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 31 SB, 90 Runs, .783 OPS

MLB.com Projection: .288 AVG, 16 HR, 69 RBI, 29 SB, 93 Runs, .827 OPS

• Clayton Kershaw (LHP) Los Angeles Dodgers – The 21 year-old southpaw had a pretty impressive 2009 despite finishing with .500 record (8-8). In 171 IP, Kershaw finished in the Top 5 in ERA (2.79) , K/9 (9.74), and H/9 (6.3). He also posted an impressive 2.27 ERA after the All-Star break last season. While it didn’t translate to many wins last season, Kershaw’s numbers show his ability to dominate on any given night. Expect his win total to nearly double this season as he establishes himself as a legit ace in this league. A few Cy Young votes could be in the offering as well. All of this coming from a 21 year-old pitcher is quite encouraging to potential fantasy owners.

Bill James Projection: 13-7, 3.25 ERA, 180 IP, 188 K (9.40 K/9), 1.28 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 14-8, 3.22 ERA, 192 IP, 201 K (9.42 K/9), 1.23 WHIP

• Yovani Gallardo (RHP) Milwaukee Brewers – Another young arm has the chance to establish himself as an elite ace in this league. After missing most of the 2008 season with a torn ACL, Gallardo came back last season and posted 13 wins along with a sub-4.00 ERA and the second-best K/9 in the NL at 9.89. Despite having an awful 4.6 BB/9 ratio last season, his previous track record in the minors and majors has shown this should not be a trend. The Brewers have been envisioning Gallardo as their ace of the future and 2010 might be the year he reaches that potential. If Gallardo cuts down on his walks, a 15 win season, sub 4.00 ERA, and high K/9 should make him a solid fantasy option as your No. 2 starter.

Bill James Projection: 12-8, 3.53 ERA, 186 IP, 205 K (9.92 K/9), 1.30 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 16-8, 3.37 ERA, 197 IP, 213 K (9.73 K/9), 1.22 WHIP

• Tommy Hanson (RHP) Atlanta Braves – The third pitcher under the age of 24 to find their name on this list might have the most upside of any of the pitchers. Hanson came to the majors last June as the top pitching prospect in baseball and he failed to disappoint. In 127.2 IP, Hanson went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA and started posting dominating strikeout numbers as he had over a 10 K/9 in August and September. Hanson is a legit future ace who comes from an organization known for developing quality arms. The future is bright for Hanson as he will be an enticing mid-round pickup for fantasy owners.

Bill James Projection: 14-7, 3.30 ERA, 191 IP, 206 K (9.71 K/9), 1.15 WHIP

MLB.com Projection: 15-7, 3.39 ERA, 190 IP, 201 K (9.52 K/9), 1.24 WHIP

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Up Next: AL Bounceback Candidates

The Associated Press reported that Sizemore contacted Major League Baseball investigators to have them stop the publication of some risque’ photos of himself that he claims were stolen from his girlfriend’s email. Apparently Sizemore took the photos of himself in front of a bathroom mirror with his cell phone and sent them to his girlfriend.

After posting a 65-97 record during the 2009 season, rest assured that Indians’ General Manager Mark Shapiro did not want to deal with this. Although the photos appear to be illegally taken, it would be wise for Sizemore to be reminded that emailing partially nude photos of himself is not a good idea–especially if you don’t want them to show up on the internet. I wouldn’t use snail mail either, Grady.

If I was Shapiro, I would take away Sizemore’s cell phone and ground him from Myspace and Facebook until he could prove to me that he was no longer going to take partially nude photos of himself.  That was a joke. I would just use one of the photos as his player profile photo for all Indians’ media and press.