ESPN.com’s 2010 Top 10 Prospects

1. Jason Heyward (OF) Atlanta Braves (1) – The consensus overall No.1 prospect on both lists. Braves fans should be excited for the arrival of this 5 tool talent in the near future.

2. Stephen Strasburg (RHP) Washington Nationals (2) – The consensus top pitching prospect on both lists. The Nationals hope Strasburg lives up to all the hype and brings home a Cy Young Award in the future.

3. Carlos Santana (C) Cleveland Indians (11) – Santana just missed cracking the top 10 on Mayo’s list, but safely finds his name on this list. Santana is a switch-hitting catcher who has left scouts raving about his ability to change the game with both his arm and bat. He has drawn comparisons to the player he is expecting to replace in Cleveland, Victor Martinez. The Indians are expected to give Santana one more year of seasoning in the minors before making him their everyday backstop in 2011.

4. Buster Posey (C) San Francisco Giants (4) – The battle for the title of the top catching prospect in the game between Santana and Posey was won by Santana on this list. However, Posey safely finds his name at No. 4 on both lists and is looking like a potential cornerstone behind the plate for many years.

5. Mike Stanton (OF) Florida Marlins (3) – Stanton takes a little step back on this list, but finds his name in the top 5 on both lists. Many scouts are in unison of their praise of Stanton and his ability to drive in runs and hit the long ball better than anyone in the minors. Marlins fans should see him patrolling right field very soon.

6. Desmond Jennings (OF) Tampa Bay Rays (6) – Jennings anchors the 6th spot on both lists. The question in Tampa is can they make an outfield with Carl Crawford in LF, Jennings in CF, and B.J. Upton in RF happen. Crawford is a free agent after the season and is questionable to return. However unlikely the possibility of all three players in the outfield together, Rays fans can dream of such a scenario which would be the fastest and most exciting outfield in all of baseball.

7. Martin Perez (LHP) Texas Rangers (18) – The Rangers find another pitching prospect in the top 10 in Perez. The 19-year old lefty has drawn comparisons to fellow lefty Johan Santana with his size and stuff. The Rangers will be cautious with Perez as he is still extremely young. He isn’t expected to reach the majors until 2012 at the earliest, but Perez’s progress could speed up the process sooner. The Rangers organization is ecstatic about their young arms and Perez could be the best.

8. Dustin Ackley (2B) Seattle Mariners (15) – The 2nd overall pick of the 2009 draft is making the switch from CF to 2B this season. How well Ackley adjusts to the position change will determine how fast he reaches the majors. He was considered the most advanced hitter in last year’s draft as he provides a high average with a great knack for getting on base. The only knock on Ackley is that his power has yet to develop and is still a work in progress. Currently, the Mariners have him penciled him for a trip to the majors at some point in 2011, but could be be later than that due to the position change.

9. Justin Smoak (1B) Texas Rangers (9) – Another name to find his name on both lists and at the same spot as well. Smoak would be penciled into most starting lineups this season, however, the Rangers don’t have room for his services this season with Chris Davis at first and Vladimir Guerrero as the primary DH. As mentioned before, Smoak has drawn comparisons to Mark Teixeira and should be a big-time run producer in the majors.

10. Jesus Montero (C) New York Yankees (19) – Another catching prospect cracks the top 10 as the Yankees hope they have find their successor to Jorge Posada behind the plate. Montero’s defense has been questioned, but he was reported to make progress behind the plate last season. There is no question about Montero’s ability to swing the bat as he has immense power and plate discipline. The Yankees have kept Montero’s name out of trade discussions and that says a lot. The team should have no problem behind the plate after Posada departs.

It is interesting to see the different top prospects list that come out every year. You often hear the term “can’t-miss prospect” loosely in baseball, which is true sometimes. The developmental process in baseball is crucial for sustained success in the league. The Braves of the 90s and the Twins are two organizations that seemingly always have a knack for producing quality home-grown talent. The Rays are a team that I see starting to follow that mold as they are starting to produce some exciting young arms and hitters. For a complete list of Law’s rankings please visit the link above.

]]> http://www.amateurgm.com/top-prospects-analysis-part-two/feed 0 http://www.amateurgm.com/dye-moving-across-town http://www.amateurgm.com/dye-moving-across-town#comments Mon, 18 Jan 2010 23:04:31 +0000 Ryan Oleniczak http://www.amateurgm.com/?p=885 According to Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com, the Chicago Cubs and Jermaine Dye have mutual interest in each other and are rumored to be in preliminary discussions on a deal. If signed by the Cubs, Dye would be used primarily as a fourth outfielder and as a platoon partner in right field with current outfielder Kosuke Fukudome. Dye has spent the last five seasons on the South Side of Chicago with the White Sox, where he was a productive member for the team during his tenure. Dye has found the free agent market unkind to him as the only other known team interested in his services was the Texas Rangers, who recently signed Vladimir Guerrero to a deal to fill their DH spot.

Despite having an awful second half with the Chicago White Sox last season, Dye finished the 2009 campaign with .250 AVG, 27 HR, and 81 RBI. However, Dye’s defense is average at best at this point in his career and his skills are best suited as a DH or backup outfielder. For the Cubs, it would be a decent gamble as Dye would provide a power bat off the bench and give the team a solid alternative in right and left field should Alfonso Soriano or Kosuke Fukudome get injured or struggle. The Cubs are also rumored to be interested in free agent outfielder Xavier Nady as well as a possible fourth outfielder.

What do you think? Can Dye rebound from his miserable second half and still be a solid contributor or should the Cubs look elsewhere?

Last season, Vlad had a .295 AVG, 15 HR, and 50 RBI in only 383 AB (100 games) as he suffered from a couple stints on the disabled list. The Rangers are hoping that Vlad can stay healthy next season, as he is still a dangerous bat in the lineup when healthy. Vlad has especially been dangerous hitting in Texas during his time with the Los Angeles Angels. For his career, he has a .394 AVG, 14 HR, and 33 RBI in 50 games at the Ballpark of Arlington.

In my opinion, this is a solid gamble by the Rangers. Even though Vlad is an injury risk at this point in his career, the numbers show that he is still a potent bat to have in the lineup when he is healthy. The Rangers are set in the outfield, so they don’t have to worry about Vlad’s knees taking a toll on him on an everyday basis. I expect the Rangers to hit Vlad either in the cleanup or fifth spot in the lineup where he will protect Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz. Here is a current rundown of the Rangers lineup for next season by position:

LF – Josh Hamilton

CF – Julio Borbon

RF – Nelson Cruz

3B – Michael Young

SS – Elvis Andrus

2B – Ian Kinsler

1B – Chris Davis

C – Taylor Teagarden / Jarrod Saltalamacchia

DH – Vlad

That’s a pretty impressive lineup for the Rangers with a good combination of speed and power. The AL West should be an exciting race next season as the Rangers should compete with the defending champion Angels and the improving Seattle Mariners in the division.

9. Johnny Damon – Damon made a name for himself this decade as a member of the Boston Red Sox with his caveman-like appearance. For the decade, Damon had a .291 AVG, 158 HR, 732 RBI, 1,115 Runs, and 264 SB with 4 teams. While average at best on the defensive side, Damon was a solid contributor over the decade with a steady average, good speed, and power. He currently finds himself on the free agent market hoping to re-sign with the New York Yankees, but ultimately might have to look elsewhere.

8. Andruw Jones – From 2000-2007, Jones was one of the premier outfielders in the game as he won 8 consecutive NL Gold Gloves as a CF with the Atlanta Braves. During that span, Jones was a 5-time All Star and hit 288 HR and 860 RBI with his best season coming in 2005 when he hit 51 HR and 128 RBI. However, his skills have rapidly declined over the past two seasons as he has become a part-time player due to injury, weight issues, and poor production when healthy. Jones recently signed a one year deal this off season with the Chicago White Sox as a part-time DH and centerfielder where he hopes to restart his career.

7. Torii Hunter – The man they call “Spider-Man” is on this list mostly due to his defense. Hunter is arguably the best defensive CF in the game today as he has won 9 consecutive AL Gold Gloves. His career has been marked by home run robbing catches at the wall and hard-nosed play. Hunter also was a solid contributor at the plate for the decade with a .276 AVG, 226 HR, 842 RBI, and 153 SB. He is a good pick for this list due to his incredible defense, solid hitting, and intangibles.

6. Carlos Beltran – Beltran is a 5 tool player in today’s game who possesses great power, solid average, good speed, and an excellent arm and overall defense. He was a 5-time All Star this decade and won 3 consecutive NL Gold Gloves in CF from 2006-2008. For the decade, he had a .282 AVG, 251 HR, 920 RBI, 961 Runs, and 256 SB. Beltran was also a prime time performer under the bright lights of the postseason. In 22 postseason games with the Houston Astros (2004) and New York Mets (2006), Beltran has a .366 AVG, 11 HR, and 19 RBI, and 8 SB. It’s rare to find someone with Beltran’s talent and production from both sides of the game. He is a great choice for this list.

5. Bobby Abreu – In my opinion, Abreu is one of the most underrated players in the game and is a true mark of consistency. He proved to be extremely durable as he averaged 158 games played a season this decade. His plate discipline was one of the best in the game as he had 7 seasons of at least 100 BB. Abreu also had 7 seasons of at least 20 HR-20 SB with two of those being 30 HR-30 SB seasons. He hit at least 100 RBI in every season except for 2000 and 2002. For the decade, Abreu had a .297 AVG, 216 HR, 993 RBI, 1,061 Runs, and 295 SB. The numbers speak for themselves, Abreu deserves to be on this list and is often overlooked despite his consistency every year.

4. Vladimir Guerrero – Before becoming a DH due to knee problems, Vlad was an excellent outfielder with arguably the best arm of any outfielder. Vlad was the face of the former Montreal Expos and Los Angeles Angels in the decade and was an exciting player to watch swing the bat. The man with no pitch out of reach had a .323 AVG, 315 HR, 1,037 RBI, and 929 Runs. Vlad also had excellent speed before his knee problems as he had two 30 HR-30 SB seasons with the Expos in 2001 and 2002. His best season was in 2004, when he was named the AL MVP with a .337 AVG, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 124 Runs, and 19 SB. Vlad is currently a free agent seeking a two year deal who should be a solid addition to an AL team in need of a DH.

3. Ichiro Suzuki – Since coming over from Japan in 2001, Ichiro has built a resume that might make him a Hall of Fame candidate when he retires. In his first season, Ichiro won both the AL Rookie of the Year Award and AL MVP with the Seattle Mariners as he won the first of 2 AL batting titles in his career. He has been both an AL All Star and Gold Glove Award winner in every season in his career. He also has had at least a .300 AVG and 200 hits in every season, which is an MLB record. In 2004, he became the all-time single season hits leader with 262 hits that season. Last season, he became the 2nd fastest player in MLB history to reach 2,000 hits in his career. Ichiro also is known for his speed at the top of the lineup as his 341 career SB will prove. Like Vlad, Ichiro possesses a cannon of an arm from the outfield and there are few runners that take a chance on his arm. For his career, he has a .333 AVG, 84 HR, 515 RBI, 973 Runs, 341 SB, and 2,030 hits. Ichiro is a no-brainer for this list and one of the best pure hitters the game has ever seen.

2. Manny Ramirez - Manny has built an impressive resume over the decade despite his 50 game suspension last season for a failed drug test and his times with the Red Sox that were often characterized simply as “Manny being Manny”. In 2008, Manny became the 24th player in MLB history to become a member of the 500 HR club. For the decade, he was one of the most feared hitters in the game as he averaged 35 HR and 111 RBI a season. His final numbers for the decade were pretty impressive as he had a .317 AVG, 348 HR, 1,106 RBI, 933 Runs, and an outstanding 1.018 OPS. You either love him or hate him, but there is no doubt Manny is one of the best hitters in the game over his career, especially this decade.

1. Barry Bonds – The most scrutinized player in the game this past decade finds himself No. 1 on this list. The leader of the steroids controversy has been out of baseball since 2007 due to the game’s desire to rid itself of the steroids era and teams not willing to embrace the publicity of Bonds. This decade, Bonds broke both the single season (73) and all-time (762) home run records with the San Francisco Giants. He became the most feared hitter in the game as his 390 intentional walks for the decade would provide proof of that. For the decade, Bonds had a .322 AVG, 317 HR, 697 RBI, 772 Runs, and an impressive 1.241 OPS. Bonds has left an impression on the game of baseball both good and bad that will never be forgotten. It will be interesting to see how the Hall of Fame voters look at Bonds when it comes time for his induction.

Here is a rundown of the MLB Network’s Top 9 at each position for the decade:

SP- Randy Johnson

Closer- Mariano Rivera

C- Pudge Rodriguez

1B- Albert Pujols

2B- Jeff Kent

SS- Derek Jeter

3B- Alex Rodriguez

OF- Barry Bonds

How do you think the MLB Network did in their rankings? Who do you think is the best player overall from the decade?

There is no denying that when healthy Guerrero is an offensive machine. He can hit almost any pitch thrown to him with power and has one of the widest strike zones in baseball. Every team would love to have his type of production in their lineup, but is he a good fit for every team? Even though Guerrero says he wants to play the field there are serious doubts his body can take the physical strain which is why the Angels using him almost exclusively as DH last season. These physical ailments most likely eliminate Guerrero from going to a NL team. It is just too risky to have him in your outfield with the potential to lose all that production at the plate due to injury. This is going to relegate him to playing in the AL where you have the option of having him in your lineup at the DH position. So which team is willing to take the risk and where does he best fit?

Los Angeles Angels: The Angels have a long standing relationship with Guerrero and he is happy there. There outfield is crowded at the moment with guys like Torii Hunter, Gary Matthews and Juan Rivera, so Guerrero would stay at DH. However the Angels may lose John Lackey as well to free agency and they need to replace Chone Figgins at third base which may take priority at this point.

Texas Rangers: Guerrero would fit well in the Rangers’ lineup. His numbers would most likely see a boost from their ballpark and he would have a lot of protection in the line-up hitting around Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young. The Rangers have expressed interest in Guerrero but I don’t see him being high on their list of needs.

Kansas City Royals: Due to his recent injury history, Guerrero may be able to be had on the cheap so the Royals should take a look. Guerrero would provide a significant boost to the offense and would also provide some veteran leadership to the club. They do seem to have a log jam at the DH spot with Mike Jacobs and Billy Butler rotating in between turns at first base. The odd man out in this situation would be Jacobs who hit 19 HR but batted a horrible .228 last year.

Chicago White Sox: The White Sox are in need of a good DH. Guerrero would fit in well. US Cellular Field is a hitters ball park but the Sox are in need of left-handed power. Kenny Williams has also eluded to the fact he does not want to sign someone who can only play DH and Guerrero’s days in the field are getting shorter.

Guerrero posses an interesting dilema for most major league teams. Is he worth the risk? That depends on your situation. Where do you think he will go?